Trends delivered 50/1 US Open runner-up - can we go one better?
The trends almost landed the US Open winner at a juicy 50/151.00 last month when Sam Burns just came up short in a final-day battle with Wyndham Clark.
Still, that gave us some chunky each-way returns and added to the profits gained from Masters trends pick, Cameron Young, finishing third at Augusta.
In other words, history and trends are proving a good guide.
So, after a third and a second, can we grab winner in the final trends preview of the 2026 series?
Let's list the 10 categories involved for the 2026 Open at Royal Birkdale.
The trends categories are: Ranking, Nationality, Age, Open Form, Winning Form, Majors Form, Majors Excellence, Current Form, Defending Champion and Week Before.
Ranking
Regular readers of the trends know the drill now. But for newcomers to this column, let's use this category to explain the points system again.
The key is frequency - how many times something has happened in the last 10 editions of the Open. We use editions rather than years as the 2020 Open never took place due to the pandemic.
A few years ago I switched to the Datagolf rankings as they reflected the fortunes of the LIV players whereas the OWGR did not.
They're a better guide in my view and we also have 10 years' worth so can use them without mixing and matching with the OWGR.
Looking at the last 10 winners of the Open, all were ranked inside the top 35 of the Datagolf rankings at the time of their win.
However, within that, seven of the 10 were ranked inside the top 10 so that's clearly the best place to look.
Therefore, it's a simple distribution. Anyone in the top 10 of the current Datagolf rankings gets 7pts (as it's happened seven times). Two of the last 10 were ranked 11th to 30th (Zach Johnson 14th and Brian Harman 30th) so anyone in that bracket currently gets 2pts. Shane Lowry, in 2019, was the only one outside the top 30.
That leads to the following scores.
Ranked 1-10 in Datagolf WR = 7pts
Ranked 11-30 in Datagolf WR = 2pts
Ranked over 30 in Datagolf WR = 1pt
Nationality
Americans have won the last three Opens - Scottie Scheffler at Royal Portrush, Xander Schauffele at Troon and Brian Harman at Hoylake.
Overall, they've landed six of the last 10 so American golfers teeing it up at Birkdale score 6pts. Europeans have lifted the Claret Jug three times in the study period.
Cam Smith's win at St Andrews in 2022 stops a full American/Euro sweep.
Americans = 6pts
Europeans = 3pts
Internationals = 1pt
Age
Players in their 20s or at least just sneaking into a third decade have dominated the other three majors over the last 10 years.
But using the age categories below, you'll see that this is the best major for those a little longer in the tooth which makes sense given that this is far removed from a bog standard PGA Tour event dominated by younger big hitters. Craft and guile are needed on the links.
While the 26-34 age group - probably the peak years for a golfer - has produced four winners in the last 10 years, the 35s and overs also have four wins in that time (Zach Johnson, Henrik Stenson, Francesco Molinari and Brian Harman).
Jordan Spieth (2017) and Collin Morikawa (2021) give some representation to the 25s and unders.
Aged between 26 and 34 inclusive = 4pts
Aged 35 or over = 4pts
Aged 25 or below = 2pts
Open Form
Three ago, Brian Harman seemed a surprise winner but he'd finished sixth at St Andrews just 12 months earlier.
Meanwhile, 2024 champion Xander Schauffele was a previous Open runner-up.
Scottie Scheffler? He'd posted Open top 10s in 2021 and 2024 before his win at Royal Portrush in 2025.
Overall, eight of the last 10 Open winners had already posted a top 10 in the event. That's a strong trend.
Of the two that hadn't, Cam Smith's previous best was 20th while Collin Morikawa was making his Open debut.
Top 10 in an Open = 8pts
11th to 20th in an Open = 1pt
Debut = 1pt
Winning Form
Scheffler was a multiple winner in 2025 ahead of his Portrush success and already having a trophy in the bag that season has been common to eight of the last 10 Open champions.
It's another strong trend.
Those who get hurt in this category are Tommy Fleetwood who is winless so far in 2026.
Of the two exceptions, Zach Johnson had managed a third before his win on the Old Course in 2015 while Harman had a second place to his name before beating the field at Hoylake.
Won this season = 8pts
Posted a second or a third this season = 2pts
No top three = 0pts
Recent Majors Form
As we've noted in all these trends previews, winners at this level almost always don't come out of thin air although Aaron Rai was perhaps exception at this year's US PGA (even then he'd finished 34th or better in all four 2025 majors though).
But, typically, an Open champion has usually advertised his credentials with a very good performance in a recent major.
Despite some slightly surprise winners of the Claret Jug, eight of the last 10 had posted a top 20 in a major earlier that same season. Only Brian Harman (43rd) and Henrik Stenson (24th) hadn't.
Top 20 in a major this season = 8pts
Posted 21st to 50th in a major this season = 2pts
No top 50 = 0pts
Major Excellence
Although having a good run in a recent major is seen as a big plus, is it an advantage to have won one already? It's worth asking the question but no trend exists. Five of the last 10 had already won one and five hadn't.
But if we widen the lens to near misses, we scoop up everyone as all of the last 10 Open winners had already posted a top two in a major during their careers.
Really? Yep, Harman was a former US Open runner-up while Molinari had previously finished second in the US PGA.
Top two in a major = 10pts
No top two in a major = 0pt
Current Form
Although links golf can be regarded as a unique test that sees the specialists come to the fore whatever their current form, the numbers say it's important to have had a good recent finish - even on a very different style of course.
Again Harman is a good example to hold up. Heading to Hoylake he had form figures of 12-9-2.
With Scheffler adding to the trend in 2025, it means all of the last 10 Open champions had posted at least one top 10 in one of their three previous starts.
The conclusion seems to be, if you're in form, that translates well to an Open course even if it is a completely different test on paper.
Top 10 in one of three previous starts = 10pts
No top 10 in that time = 0pts
Week Before
Is it a smart idea to play the week before and, if so, where?
With the co-sanctioned Scottish Open now occupying the pre-Open slot, it's become more and more likely that the Claret Jug winner will have warmed up on the links.
But don't fret if your pick isn't playing at The Renaissance Club as four of the last 10 hadn't tasted competitive action the week before.
A few players who aren't playing the week before Birkdale: Bryson DeChambeau, Cam Young, Russell Henley and Justin Rose.
Played previous week = 6pts
Had previous week off = 4pts
And that's all 10 categories complete. So...
The Top Points Scorers
The scores are in and - drumroll - these are the leading points scorers:
77 Wyndham Clark, Collin Morikawa
74 Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick
69 Viktor Hovland
67 Scottie Scheffler
66 Tommy Fleetwood
65 Cam Young, Sam Burns
It's a tie between last month's US Open winner Wyndham Clark and 2021 Open champion Collin Morikawa!
I didn't see that one coming.
The two Americans score maximum points and edge out the European trio of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick.
Scottie Scheffler has to settle for seventh due to getting points docked for being the defending champ. Padraig Harrington in 2007/2008 was the last to go back-to-back.
Clark, aged 32, is 7th in the DataGolf rankings after recent wins at the US Open and Byron Nelson and was tied fourth in last year's Open Championship at Royal Portrush.
Despite all that, he's 33/134.00 (1/5 Odds, 6 Places).
Back Wyndham Clark each-way (6 Places)
Morikawa won on his Open debut at Royal St George's in 2021 and this year in the majors he's posted seventh at the US Masters and 17th in the US Open.
Earlier this year, the 29-year-old American won by the coast at Pebble Beach while he was third at the Travelers Championship on his latest start.
Despite ticking all the trends boxes, the in-form US duo are both available at very reasonable prices.
Back Collin Morikawa each-way (6 Places)