Open Championship 2025: Two Americans and a veteran Brit head Steve Rawlings' Royal Portrush team

• Experienced types likly to prosper

• A strong weekend in Scotland a huge plus

• Swerve the LIV stars after unsuitable prep in Spain

• Bet £5 in our Birdie Bonus market and every first round birdie your selection scores=free bet 

• Read Dave Tindall's Open Championship 2025 10-year trends report here

• Read Matt Cooper's Player Guide Here

Watch Golf...Only Bettor 2025 Open Championship preview

Tournament History

After a sensible change to the scheduling six years ago, the oldest and greatest of the four majors, the Open Championship, often referred to as the British Open, is now the final one of the four to be staged each year.

Organised by the Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St. Andrews (the R&A), the Open Championship is the only one of the four majors to be played outside of the USA. Willie Park won the inaugural tournament way back in 1860 and this will be the 153^rd edition.

Although a nomadic tournament, the Open Championship is always staged on a links course and this year we're returning to Royal Portrush, where 100.099/1 chance, Shane Lowry, claimed the spoils six years ago.

Venue

The Dunluce Links, Royal Portrush, Portrush, County Antrim, Northern Ireland.

Course Details

Par 71, 7,346 yards
Scoring Average in 2019 - 72.17 

After Max Faulkner had won the 1951 edition of the Open Championship at Royal Portrush, we had to wait 68 years for the second occasion the tournament was staged at this stunning Irish gem but just six years after Shane Lowry romped to a rain-soaked six-stroke victory over Tommy Fleetwood, we're back again for the third time for the 153^rd edition.

The '51 edition was the first time that the Open was covered in full by the BBC and the combination of such a fabulous venue and such a flamboyant winner could only have helped the tournament to grow in stature. Faulkner was famed for his style and colourful clothing, and he was also said to be guilty of signing a ball on the first tee of the final round, "Max Faulkner - Open Champion".

Having hit the front at halfway and having led by six with 18 to play, victory had looked likely but signing a ball for a young lad, adding "Open Champion" at the request of the boy's father, was perhaps a little naive.

Faulkner held on to win by two with a three-under-par total but with the Championship growing in stature, a return to Portrush looked less and less likely as the years rolled by.

The Open is a massive event now with huge crowds and Portrush just didn't have the infrastructure to support the magnitude of the event in the modern era.

Having last staged the Irish Open in 1947, Royal Portrush was granted the 2012 edition - won by Jamie Donaldson in 18-under-par. The tournament was seen as a success but if Portrush was to again host the biggest event of them all, changes needed to be made...

There are two courses at Royal Portrush - the Valley Course and the Championship Course, called the Dunluce Course. Having been laid out originally by Old Tom Morris in 1888, and having been newly recreated by Harry Colt in 1932, the Dunluce is quite rightly seen as something of a masterpiece created by design geniuses but in order to host the Open Championship six years ago and to accommodate the vast Spectator Village, the only option available to the Portrush Committee was to place it where the 17^th and 18^th holes stood on the Dunluce.

That may sound like a drastic measure but it was long since felt that the 18^th was a weak finishing hole and the weakest on the course. In fact, the Dunluce was often described as having 17 world class holes and the 18^th. And the par five 17^th was arguably straightforward enough, once you'd found the fairway and avoided the notorious 'Big Nellie' bunker off the tee.

Once the decision to sacrifice 17 and 18 was made, room was found on the outskirts of the Valley Course for the two brand new holes required. The new holes, designed by Martin Ebert, are the seventh and eighth this week, as they were six years ago, and a new 'Big Nellie' has been constructed alongside the seventh.

Other changes were made to various holes (including a new green on the par five second) and all the holes following the eighth have moved their position in the round, so the infamous par three 'Calamity' which used to be the 14^th is now the 16^th. The hole has always been seen as a tough one and it arguably cost Argentine, Antonio Cerdá, the title in 1951. He finished runner-up to Faulkner, beaten by two, but he made a six at Calamity in round four.

As always Fried Egg Golf have done a magnificent job of previewing the venue and the video below is well worth a watch.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 6:30 on Thursday morning.

Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Xander Schauffele -9 15.529/2
2023 - Brain Harman -13 170.0169/1
2022 - Cam Smith -20 26.025/1
2021 - Collin Morikawa -15 42.041/1
2020 - Championship cancelled
2019 - Shane Lowry -15 100.099/1
2018 - Francesco Molinari -8 38.037/1
2017 - Jordan Spieth -12 17.016/1
2016 - Henrik Stenson -20 25.024/1
2015 - Zach Johnson -15 150.0149/1 (playoff)
2014 - Rory McIlroy -17 19.018/1

What do the stats tell us?

Jamie Donaldson topped the Putting Average rankings when he won the Irish Open at Portrush 13 years ago and Lowry ranked second for PA in 2019 but both Greens In Regulation and Scrambling were key stats in both events and that's in-line with what you'd expect at a links venue.

Although the Championship is played at a different venue each year, links golf offers up broadly the same test whichever venue is used so here's a look at the average traditional statistical rankings for the winners of the last ten Open Championships.

Average key stats for the last 10 Open winners

Driving Accuracy - 36.9
Driving Distance - 27.7
G.I.R - 14.7
Scrambling - 9.4
Putting Average - 8.7

Looking at the ten-year average rankings, what you do off the tee is fairly unimportant but a strong week on and around the greens is key

Strokes Gained stats were produced for the first time at the Open Championship two years ago, so for what it's worth, here's the top-five at St Andrews and Hoylake with the Strokes Gained stats - SG: Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green, SG: Tee to Green and SG: Putting.

2022
Cam Smith -20 - TEE 34 APP 24 ATG 22 T2G 17 PUTTING 1
Cameron Young -19 - TEE 4 APP 10 ATG 8 T2G 2 PUTTING 17
Rory McIlroy -18 - TEE 1 APP 25 ATG 6 T2G 1 PUTTING 29
Tommy Fleetwood -14 - TEE 57 APP 9 ATG 23 T2G 18 PUTTING 8
Viktor Hovland -14 - TEE 41 APP 22 ATG 3 T2G 12 PUTTING 17

2023
Brian Harman -13 - TEE 15 APP 30 ATG 27 T2G 17 PUTTING 1
Jason Day -7 - TEE 35 APP 37 ATG 2 T2G 9 PUTTING 16
Tom Kim -7 - TEE 32 APP 27 ATG 33 T2G 25 PUTTING 2
Jon Rahm -7 - TEE 10 APP 16 ATG 32 T2G 5 PUTTING 18
Sepp Straka -7 - TEE 31 APP 2 ATG 67 T2G 4 PUTTING 21

2024
Xander Schauffele -9 - TEE 11 APP 2 ATG 15 T2G 1 PUTTING 16
Billy Horschel -7 - TEE 8 APP 5 ATG 9 T2G 2 PUTTING 21
Justin Rose -7 - TEE 9 APP 4 ATG 20 T2G 4 PUTTING 9
Thriston Lawrence -6 - TEE 1 APP 30 ATG 22 T2G 6 PUTTING 6
Russell Henley -5 - TEE 5 APP 14 ATG 29 T2G 5 PUTTING 18

I'm not sure we can read too much in to just three years' worth of numbers but it's immediately noticeable that the 2022 and '23 winners both topped the SG: Putting list and that SG: Tee-to-Green was far and away the most important stat at Troon last year.

The only thing we can conclude is that what you do off the tee is largely irrelevant.

When Phil Mickelson won in 2013 he ranked only 43^rd for Driving Accuracy and 63^rd for Driving Distance so if I'd have calculated the 11 year averages instead of 10, the two average driving metrics would have been even higher.

Is a start in the Scottish Open essential?

Now that the Scottish Open is co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour, and that the field strength has increased dramatically as a result, what used to be a really great angle in is now just a factor well worthy of mention.

Links golf is quite unique and ever since the Scottish Open moved away from Loch Lomond, after the 2010 edition, to take in various wonderful Scottish links, an appearance in the Scottish the week before the Open has often proved beneficial.

The last three Open winners have finished 10^th, 12^th and 15^th in the Scottish Open and the first four home at Troon last year were all in the line-up at the Renaissance.

The 2022 winner, Cam Smith, who finished tied for 10^th in the Scottish Open, made it quite clear that playing the Scottish Open had been key to winning at St Andrews.

"I started to feel really good with where my game was at last weekend at the Scottish Open, I had a really, really solid weekend."

Since the Scottish Open has been regularly played on a links layout, nine of the last 13 Open winners have played in the event and it was very nearly nine. Matt Kuchar, who traded at odds-on before he was beaten by Jordan Spieth in 2017, had finished fourth in the Scottish.

Looking at the four winners that hadn't played in the Scottish Open, Spieth is the only one that hadn't played recently. His last appearance had been almost a month earlier when he'd won the Travelers Championship, but Zach Johnson won the Open in 2015, a week after finishing third at the John Deere Classic on the PGA Tour and Francesco Molinari won the Open after finishing second in the John Deere Classic.

Shane Lowry didn't play in the Scottish Open when he won here six years but that made plenty of sense. Having finished 34^th in the Irish Open on a links layout two weeks before the Open at Royal Portrush, he decided to stay in his native Ireland and tick over on links tracks instead of travelling back and fore to Scotland.

Valderrama warm-up looks like a big negative

The LIV Golf Tour is taking in the tight, tree-lined Valderrama layout in Spain again this week, which is a very different test to that faced at Portrush so that's arguably a huge negative for the rebel tour representatives.

Jon Rahm, who's an incredibly good links player, and an in-form John Catlin, who finished tied for sixth and tied 16^th at Troon 12 months ago, were the only two players inside the top-18 that had teed it up in Spain the week before.

Noticeable Portrush and Abu Dhabi link

The Abu Dhabi Golf Championship moved from its original venue, Abu Dhabi Golf Club, to Yas Links in 2022 but form in that event prior to the move looks well worth considering.

The 2012 Irish Open winner at Portrush, Jamie Donaldson, won the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship the following year and four of the top six and ties at the 2019 Open Championship - the winner, Lowry, the runner-up, Fleetwood, Lee Westwood, who finished tied for fourth, and Rickie Fowler, who finished tied for sixth - have all won at Abu Dhabi Golf Club.

It's fairly old form now but it could be a great omen for the well-fancied Tyrrell Hatton, who won the final edition staged there in 2021, and for Rory, who finished second there four times and third four times.

A recent victory is a big plus

As Dave Tindall highlights in his 10-Year Trends piece, eight of the last 10 Open winners had finished inside the top 10 at a previous Open Championship and the same number had won earlier in the season.

The 2023 winner, Brian Harman, hadn't won in six years but he was just the fifth Open winner this century not to have won on either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour in the previous 12 months and last year's winner, Schauffele, had already won a major!

Schauffele had broken his major duck at the US PGA Championship two months earlier but there's a very strong chance that the winner on Sunday will be winning a major for the first time, although they will, in all probability, be inside the top 50 in the Official World Rankings...

Following JJ Spaun's victory at Oakmont in the US Open last month, 24 of the last 39 (62%) major championships have gone to a first-time major winner but 52 of the last 53 majors have been won by someone inside the world's top 50. The odd man out is Phil Mickelson who defied all sorts of logic at the 2021 US PGA Championship when he won at the age of 51 - ranking 115^th in the world.

Although five of the last eight Open winners hadn't won a major, all five had finished second in one and we have to go all the way back to Louis Oosthuizen's shock win in 2010 to find the last Open winner not to have finished first or second in a previous major. And bizarrely, in addition to his victory at St Andrews 15 years ago, he's now famously finished runner-up in all four!

Open Championship form is a huge plus

The 2022 winner, Cam Smith, had poor previous Open form figures reading MC-78-20-33 and Collin Morikawa was playing in his first Open but last year's winner, Schauffele, had finished second in his second Open in 2018 and previous Open Championship form had been a huge pointer over the years with as many as 16 of the last 19 winners have recorded a top ten in the Open previously.

Lowry and Francesco Molinari had both finished ninth previously, but those finishes could be construed as slight anomalies given 14 of the last 19 winners have finished inside the top six in an Open previously and remarkably, nine of the last 19 winners had finished inside the top three.

Even though it's played at a different venue each year, the examination is always similar and it's totally unique to anything else encountered so previous tournament experience is clearly important but widening the research out to all majors, as Dave Tindall highlights, eight of the last 10 Open winners had posted a top 20 in one of their previous two majors and the last ten Open winners had all finished at least second in a previous major.

Experience counts at this major

The two winners before Harman in 2023 went against the grain on several accounts. In addition to not having much or any previous Open form or very recent form, both were in their 20s.

Rory and Louis Oosthuizen have also won this major in their 20s fairly recently but experienced pros have a great record in the Open and I'd favour the old guard over the young guns...

Schauffle was just 30 in 2024 and Shane Lowry was only 32 when he won here six years ago years ago but he's played links golf all his life. He famously won the Irish Open at the County Louth Links as an amateur way back in 2009 and 12 months before Lowry won at Portrush, Francesco Molinari became the ninth player aged 35 and above to win the Open in 12 years. Veterans figure in this championship year after year.

Henrik Stenson had turned 40 just three months before he won at Troon in 2016 and the 2015 winner, Zach Johnson, turned 40 eight months after he'd won.

When Stenson took the title nine years ago, 46-year-old Phil Mickelson finished second and 49 year-old Steve Stricker finished fourth and yet they were mere pups in comparison to a couple of fairly recent contenders... 

At Royal Birkdale 17 years ago, 53-year-old two-time Open Champion, Greg Norman, led the field by two strokes after three tough, windy days and he was the oldest player to ever lead the Open Championship through 54-holes but only 12 months later, 59-year-old, Tom Watson, smashed that record when he took a one-stroke lead into round four at Turnberry. Both men were eventually collared but they emphasize the point I'm labouring. This is clearly a tournament where plenty of experience is a huge plus and age is no barrier.

Given how well experienced players fare, it's perhaps not surprising that debutants have a woeful record. Morikawa, in 2021, was the first to win since Ben Curtis in 2003 and the last debutant before Curtis was Tom Watson in 1975.

Don't be afraid to back an outsider

This has always been a great Championship for outsiders.

Ben Curtis, in 2003, and Todd Hamilton a year later were complete and utter rank outsiders and the three winners between 2009 and 2011 all went off at odds in excess of 300.0299/1.

Harman, who had been matched at a high of 460.0459/1 when the market first opened, began the week trading at around 170.0169/1 in 2023, despite being in fair form and being ranked as high as 25 in the world, and Lowry was a 100.099/1 chance here in 2019.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Xander Schauffele - tied second, trailing by one 5.04/1
2023 - Brian Harman - led by five 1.654/6
2022 - Cam Smith - tied fourth, trailing by four 15.014/1
2021 - Collin Morikawa - solo second, trailing by one 3.1511/5
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Shane Lowry - led by four strokes 1.635/8
2018 - Francesco Molinari - solo fifth, trailing by three 16.015/1
2017 - Jordan Spieth - led by three strokes 1.42/5
2016 - Henrik Stenson - led by a stroke 1.768/11
2015 - Zach Johnson - tied sixth, trailing by three 38.037/1
2014 - Rory McIlroy - led by six strokes 1.21/5

In-Play Tactics

Lowry sat solo second after round one here in 2019, just a stroke behind JB Holmes, and he was tied with the American at halfway before kicking four clear in the bad weather but being up with the pace from the get-go is the norm at most Open Championships.

Molinari sat tied for 29^th and six off the pace at halfway seven years ago and he was still three off the lead with a round to go but off the pace winners have been fairly common at the 2018 venue, Carnoustie.

While watching the coverage, you'll invariably hear the commentators say on several occasions that there's a long way to go and that there's plenty of time to make up lost ground or that anyone that makes the weekend can still win - words to that effect - but that's not really the case.

Those with long memories may recall Paul Lawrie's miraculous win at Carnoustie in 1999 from ten shots back with a round to go but that was a freak result of monumental proportions.

Mark O'Meara, who trailed by seven after round one back in 1998, is the only winner in the last 30 years not to be within five strokes of the lead after the opening round.

Padraig Harrigton, who sat tied for 38^th and five back when defending in 2008,  Stenson in 2016 (sat tied 12^th), and the aforementioned Molinari, who sat tied for 18^th and four off the lead, are the only three victors in the last 20 years not to be inside the top 10 after round one and six of the last eight winners sat first or second at halfway.

I can't stress enough how important a fast start is and being up with the pace is usually essential.

Looking at the course specifically, in 2019, the back nine averaged almost a hole harder than the front nine and the four hardest holes on the course were all played after the turn - the 11^th, 14^th, 16^th and 18^th.

Steve Rawlings' Open Pick #1 - Scheffler fairly priced at 6/1

Since he finished 20^th at Sawgrass back in March, when attempting to win the Players Championship for a third time in-a-row, the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, is on a run of 10 straight top 10 finishes and he's won three of the last seven events he's played, including the US PGA Championship at Quail Hollow.

This is Scheffler's fifth Open Championship appearance but he took to the event straight away, finishing eighth in 2021 behind fellow American Collin Morikawa at Royal St Georges.

He was sitting fifth with a round to go at St Andrews before a disappointing 74 on Sunday saw him slip to tied 21^st at St Andrews in 2022 and he was never in-the-mix when finishing tied 28^th behind Brian Harman at Hoylake but he always on the premises at Troon 12 months ago when he eventually finished tied for seventh behind Xander Schauffele but he was badly hindered by a cold putter.

Scheffler ranked only 36^th for Putting Average and 68^th for Strokes Gained: Putting and he looked flummoxed on the greens a number of times last week in Scotland but the fact he played there is a huge plus.

When Morikawa won at Royal St Georges he ranked first for Scrambling and ninth for Putting Average, a week after finishing 71^st in the Scottish Open, ranking 59^th for Scrambling and 63^rd for PA and that warm up at the Renaissance was crucial.

Scheffler didn't play in the Scottish last year. In fact, he didn't play anywhere after he'd won the Travelers Championship a month earlier and this new tactic should pay dividends.

I expect his game on and around the greens will be far better than it was last week and bidding to emulate Schauffele's feat last year by winning the Open a few months after winning the US PGA Championship, he's a very fair price to win his fourth major and his first Open at 6/17.00 on the Exchange.

An argument could be made that he might be slightly disadvantaged having not played here back in 2019, but he hadn't played Quail Hollow before he romped to a five stroke win there in May either and I was happy to back him here at 7.26/1.

Rory perfectly primed ahead of home Open 

Rory McIlroy famously shot 61 around Portrush at the age of 16 and when he played here six years ago, he had this to say before the off.

"No matter what I did for the rest of my golfing career, winning at Portrush would be the highlight. It doesn't matter what I would do, if I were to win an Open Championship at home it would be the best thing, to me, maybe for other people it would be different but for me, nothing could top that."

Whether he still feels the same having won the US Masters in April to complete career grand slam is debatable, but the heaped-up expectations cost him dear six years ago.

Rory opened the 2019 Open with a quadruple-bogey at the opening hole and quite possibly in a state of shock, he eventually signed for a 79 that saw him sitting in 150^th place after round one.

He responded brilliantly on Friday, shooting 65, it wasn't quite enough to see him make the weekend.

Having won the Players Championship ahead of his unforgettable success at Augusta, Rory went off the boil and understandably so perhaps.

It must have been very difficult to pick himself up and go again having won the career grand slam but his sixth at the Travelers Championship in his penultimate start, and, more pertinently, his tied second behind Chris Gotterup last week, suggest he's back on track.

The pressure of winning at home will be very hard to overcome and having shortened up in the market during last week's Scottish, I'm not convinced he's a great price at less than 8/19.00.

The 30-year-old Spaniard, Jon Rahm, has Open form figures reading 59-44-MC-11-3-34-2-7, and he's a two-time winner of the Irish Open at links venues, Portstewart and Lahinch so he's genuine links expert.

He contended strongly at the US PGA Championship before a late stumble saw him slip to eighth, but he hasn't been at his best on the LIV Tour this year, although he really caught the eye on Sunday at Valderrama where he shot 65 to finish second.

Rahm finished 11^th at Portrush, two weeks after winning the Irish Open at Lahinch but he'd have been disappointed by the finish given he sat third after round one.

He has a fabulous chance but his exploits on Sunday haven't escaped the attention of the market and he's not a terrific price now at 14.013/1 given he hasn't won since September last year.

Steve Rawlings' Open Pick #2 - Schauffele value to defend his title

Multiple winners are commonplace at this major but it's now 17 years since Padraig Harrington retained the Claret Jug so we may just be due a successful title defence.

In addition to Padraig, the likes of Tiger Woods, Tom Watson, Lee Trevino, Arnold Palmer and Peter Thompson, have all made a successful defence since the Open was first staged at Portrush in 1953 and I'm very happy to chance Xander modestly at 30.029/1.

Schauffele hasn't won since his victory at Troon, but he's been severely hampered by a nasty rib injury picked up in December.

As Dave Tindall highlights in his 10-year trends piece, most Open winners have a recent victory tucked away so that's a negative, but Harrigton was winless between his playoff victory at Carnoustie in 2007 and his four-stroke win at Birkdale.

Despite the injury disruption, Schauffele's been competitive at the majors, finishing eighth at the US Masters, 28^th when defending the US PGA Championship and 12^th at the US Open and he caught the eye last week when finishing alongside Scheffler in a tie for eighth in Scotland.

He's an exceptional talent, a quite brilliant links exponent (also won the Scottish Open three years ago) and he's a fair price.

Steve Rawlings' Open Outsider bets - Rose a very backable price

I like several longshots that are worth a mention.

I backed Dan Brown, who led the Open after the first round last year, after he won in Germany two weeks ago and I was happy to throw a few pounds in the direction of the Soudal Open winner, Kristoffer Reitan, at odds in excess of 600.0599/1 after his 13^th place finish in Scotland on Sunday.

Nicolai Hojgaard looks fractionally big at 180.0179/1 after a fast finish on Sunday got him into the field here (shot 64 to finish tied fourth) and I just couldn't let the event kick off without placing a small bet on Justin Rose.

Rose sat fourth with 18 to play here in 2019 (finished 20^th after a 79 on Sunday) so he's demonstrated an aptitude for the venue and he showed both last year in this event, when he finished second, and at Augusta in April when he lost the playoff to Rory, that he may just have another major in him at the age of 44.

Now read more Open Championship previews and tips here