17.30 - October 3, 2026 - Jarvis on the home (of golf) straight
Casey Jarvis, highlighted by Steve Rawlings pre-tournament at 120.0119/1, heads into the final round of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship with not only a two shot lead, but also a significant advantage over all but six of the field.
The South African, who was a two-time winner on the Sunshine Tour at the end of 2025 and a two-time winner on the DP World Tour at the start of this year, has not broken the top 50 in four previous appearances in this annual celebration of Scottish seaside golf, but he hinted at his links savvy when T6 in the Open at Royal Birkdale this summer.
Rounds of 66 at Carnoustie, 67 at Kingsbarns and a Saturday 65 on the Old Course have vaulted him to 18-under for the week, and he now has only a second lap of the St Andrews course between him and a third win of the season.
Will it be that straightforward, however? There are links specialists among the chasers and their skills, plus the pacesetter's, could be tested by the strongest winds of the week - the Met Office is expecting gusts of up to 30mph in the town - and out on the furthest reaches of the course they could touch 40mph.
Here is the 54 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 17.40:
Casey Jarvis -18 2.3811/8
Matthew Jordan -16 5.69/2
Adrian Meronk -16 8.27/1
Thomas Detry -15 9.617/2
Jacob Skov Olesen -14 18.535/2
Niklas Norgaard -14 28.027/1
Sepp Straka -13 44.043/1
-13 and 38.037/1 bar
Jarvis was more or less faultless in his third round, making five birdies and one eagle in his 7-under, and even when he found trouble - at his 15th hole of the day - he got up-and-down from 147-yards for par.
The 23-year-old is 4-for-6 at converting a 54-hole lead into a win and 3-for-4 in the last 12 months alone. Anyone who followed Steve will now be in a fine position to trade out if they want to play it safe.
What of the chasers and their linksland expertise?
Jordan plays out of Royal Liverpool, has two top 10 finishes in both the Open and this event. He is yet to win at this level, but the seaside is surely where he is most likely to break the duck.
The Belgian Detry is another who is a member of a links club, in his case St Enodoc in Cornwall and he was second (after a play off) in the 2021 Scottish Open at Renaissance.
Olesen won the 2024 Amateur Championship at Ballyliffin and, since turning pro, has two tops 10s at Trump Aberdeen and was T5 in this event last year.
Straka recorded T2 in the 2023 Open at Royal Liverpool and was T7 in the Scottish Open at Renaissance last year.
Meronk and Norgaard have the weakest seaside claims, but both have a top 10 at Yas Links and the latter was T7 in this championship in 2022.
The potential for at least one of those chasers to scare Jarvis would rather hint at protecting your position if you have followed Steve.
Past champion (and last week's winner of the Open de France) Matt Fitzpatrick is also among those on 12-under. Indeed, it is he who is priced shorter than Straka at 38.037/1.
I'm tempted by the Dane Norgaard who closed with two laps of 65 on the Old Course when T12 in this event in 2024 and last month he thrashed a second round 64 at Trump Doonbeg and a second round 65 at Wentworth.
Long from the tee, hitting into big greens, if he swings it well he shouldn't need to chip too much (his weak link).
Back Niklas Norgaard
I'll be back tomorrow morning for the finale of the PGA Tour's Bank of Utah Championship.
09.30 - October 3, 2026 - Smotherman setting the pace
The wide fairways and thin air of the Black Desert Resort has once again proved to be a good fit for players who like to go low and keep going low.
The first edition of the Bank of Utah Championship was won by Matt McCarty with a -23 total and last year's champion Michael Brennan compiled a -22 score.
This year's 36 hole leader Austin Smotherman is on track to better both those efforts sitting alone on -17 with the weekend to come.
But he'll need to keep the pedal to the metal because there are seven players within five strokes of him (and nine piled up on -11).
Here's the 36 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 09.30:
Austin Smotherman -17 4.77/2
Kevin Roy -16 5.85/1
Kevin Streelman -15 18.017/1
Doug Ghim -15 5.59/2
Stephan Jaeger -14 15.014/1
Steven Fisk -13 27.026/1
Michael Brennan -12 15.014/1
Neal Shipley -12 40.039/1
-11 and 28.027/1 bar
The pattern of those first two renewals was for the pace to maintain on Saturday before the final round became a little tougher. But both winners were right in it at this stage - McCarty was fourth and Brennan already leading.
Given that we can expect more low scoring it will take something very low to get involved from outside the top eight.
The leader Smotherman, who sounds like the creepiest superhero ever, was second in the Cognizant Classic earlier this season and T13 in the Players Championship shortly after, but he lost form thereafter.
He was T17 last time out to show signs of form and he will be encouraged in the heat of battle by memories of regaining his PGA Tour card via two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. He will also know, however, that he has only two top five finishes at this level.
He was the leader through 54 holes before being caught and overtaken at PGA National in March, but before then ticked off three consecutive wins in which he converted halfway leads on the second tier.
Roy and Ghim have also got just the two top fives on the main tour whilst Fisk has just three - but two of those were wins, both up against this level of field and most recently in July. Streelman is also a two-time winner but not since 2014 although he was T3 at Black Desert in 2024.
And then there is Stephan Jaeger who was actually leading at this stage back in 2024 before finishing second and last year he was T11 despite making a very slow start (T86).
It's not the German's only form on a Tom Weiskopf track (which Black Desert is) - he's been T9 and T11 at TPC Craig Ranch.
He's won when needing to go low (he carded 58-65-64-63 in his first Korn Ferry Tour victory).
And he's the most recent PGA Tour winner among the top five, holding off Scottie Scheffler to grab the Houston Open in 2024.
The big-hitting Brennan is a threat and Zach Bauchou has altitude and Weiskopf credentials, but at -11 he'll surely need at least one very low score to get involved.
Jaeger it is at 15.014/1.
Back Stephan Jaeger
I'll be back later this afternoon to update the post-cut position in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. That event, of course, has a 54 hole cut, hence the delay in the update. To pinch a term from track and field, it takes a while for the stagger to reveal itself in the Dunhill.
Steve's pre-tournament 120.0119/1 pick Casey Jarvis does lead after 36 holes so there's potential for an exciting finish for followers.