Ryder Cup: Four tips for successful In-Play betting

Don't expect many individual matches to turn around

Given the excitement of In-Play betting plus our natural tendency to remember the most dramatic turnarounds, there is a temptation in any sport to lay leaders and golf is no exception. Indeed, we saw the merits of that strategy just a few weeks ago when Adam Scott lost the Open Championship after trading down to 1.021/50.

Matchplay golf, however, is a very different format to strokeplay and analysis of the last three Ryder Cups confirms the need to alter our betting strategy from the weekly norm. Of the 84 individual matches during the last three Ryder Cups, the player or pairing trailing through nine holes went on to win the point only seven times.

Of course that isn't to say there are no odds-on disasters. At Celtic Manor, the most memorable instance saw Rickie Fowler turn around a four-shot deficit to secure a half with Edoardo Molinari, who had been matched below 1.051/20. It may pay to oppose similar extremely short odds-on chances, simply because they do happen and when they do, the rewards are huge. Less ambitious odds-on lays, however, are rarely a value option.

Back front-runners in fourballs

That trend towards front-runners applies particularly to fourballs, which produced only one back-nine turnaround from 24 matches during the last three contests. The essential difference with this format, as opposed to foursomes and singles, is that far fewer holes are won by either side. Fewer holes are lost to mistakes as the player in trouble can be rescued by his partner's separate ball, while the easier holes are halved with birdies more often than when only two balls are in play. Backing every team leading through nine holes will likely pay off.

Contrary to individual matches, the overall result offers plenty of turnaround potential

If, as the market and most pundits believe, this year's Ryder Cup is closely fought, expect the outright odds to swing back and forth. Momentum can change course very quickly as players feed off noise and news from elsewhere on the course. There is a turning point during most sessions when shrewdly timed bets on the trailing side can yield short-term dividends.

While three of the last four Ryder Cups have been one-sided, two involved notably poor US sides and longer-term analysis points to a tight, fluctuating contest. Last time the USA led after the first two days before losing. Prior to those one-sided matches between 2004 and 2008, the previous seven all saw both teams assume odds-on favouritism at some stage.

The tie is a good In-Play trading vehicle, in both the outright and match markets

Anyone who blindly backed the tie in every match during Ryder Cups this century would have made a small profit, but a smarter strategy is to be selective. Well over half of all matches during that period reached the 17th hole and in most of those cases, the tie will have traded much shorter than it's average starting odds of around 4.84/1. Success requires good judgement of course, in order to avoid the many one-sided matches that don't reach that late stage, but if you do fancy a match to be close, a 'back to lay' strategy on the tie is a sound option.

The tie may also represent the best strategy with regards the outright market. Currently a 13.012/1 chance, it may drift a little early on but unless the match is one-sided, is bound to trade shorter on the final day. We haven't seen a tied Ryder Cup since 1989 despite several close contests, five of which were decided by just a single point. Could this highly plausible outcome be overdue?