Valspar Championship 2026 First-Round Leader Tips: Dave Tindall's three to back up to 80/1

Valspar Championship weather forecast for Thursday

Weather-wise, round one looks to be the least pleasant of the four days.

Wind speeds are consistent throughout the day at around 14-17mph while it's a rather cool start with temperatures only in the 50s for the early starters. They rise to around 70 in the afternoon. 

Historically, there's no wave bias. A total of 14 players have had a piece of the first-round lead over the last four editions: seven started in the morning and seven teed off in the afternoon.

The warmer conditions after lunch might just favour the p.m. wave so I'll pick two afternoon starters in my three-man team.

Valspar Championship First Round Leader Bet 1: Bud Cauley @ 66/167.00

Bud Cauley produced some excellent golf on last year's Florida Swing, finishing sixth at The Players Championship and following that up with fourth place here.

To a slightly lesser extent, he's found some improved form again this time, posting 18th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 32nd at Sawgrass.

He started both events well, sitting ninth after 18 holes at Bay Hill and 17th after the opening lap at The Players.

Cauley has been inside the top 10 after round one in three of his last seven Florida starts and, although it came later in the week, I like the fact that he shot a Sunday 66 on this track 12 months ago.

Five-under for a single round in a tournament won with 11-under is a strong effort and was the joint-lowest round that day.

Back Cauley, who tees off at 12:47 (10th hole), at 66s (1/4 Odds, 5 Places).

Valspar Championship First Round Leader Bet 2: Stephan Jaeger @ 80/181.00

Stephan Jaeger was the joint first-round leader here last year after firing a 67. 

It wasn't exactly unexpected as he'd also had a share of the 18-hole lead on his previous visit to the course in 2023.

So could he raise eyebrows further and take the Thursday honours once more? At 80/181.00 I'm happy to try and find out.

His form is patchy this year but there are a few signs of promise.

The German was fifth after round one and fifth at the finish at the Farmers Insurance Open and he sat 10th at halfway in Phoenix.

Middle rounds of 71-69 at TPC Sawgrass last week were decent knocks (he faded on Sunday) but ranking 10th for SG: Putting at The Players is also good to see given that past Valspar winners have been strong on the greens.

Jaeger's Valspar FRL hat-trick bid begins from the 10th at 12:58.

Valspar Championship First Round Leader Bet 3: Kevin Roy @ 80/181.00

Although he didn't make much of an impression at Sawgrass despite making the cut, Kevin Roy showed some good signs prior to that at the Cognizant Classic (23rd) and Phoenix Open (13th).

He started both events with a 67, good enough for day one positions of third (Cognizant) and seventh (Phoenix).

Go back to the start of this year and Roy burst out of the blocks with a 62 to take the first-round lead at the Sony Open.

As for this course, he's been hit and miss but two years ago the Florida resident set out with a 65 to end the first lap in second place.

Last year Roy was FRL at March's Puerto Rico Open and June's Rocket Classic, again coming out all guns blazing by firing 62s.

The 08:52 starter is a good man to have onside in this market and 80s definitely appeals.

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