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80/181.00 Russell Henley is in form and can sneak a top 5
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33/134.00 Henley is also a play for 72-Hole Low Score
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28/129.00 Sungjae Im has course and current form
Well, that went quickly. The 2022/23 season has reached its end and that means we narrow our focus to the 30 players teeing it up at this week's Tour Championship at East Lake.
Trying to find the best way to deliver a thrilling climax isn't easy. But I can't help but think that giving the best player of the season a two-shot start over his nearest rival and a massive 10 stroke advantage over the final five qualifiers isn't quite right.
Scottie Scheffler deserves it I guess but, realistically, how many people can overtake him this week?
When the shots are issued pre-tournament, this is how the starting scoreboard will look.
-10 Scottie Scheffler
-8 Viktor Hovland
-7 Rory McIlroy
-6 Jon Rahm
-5 Lucas Glover
-4 Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick
-3 Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele
-2 Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim
-1 Taylor Moore, Nick Taylor, Adam Schenk, Collin Morikawa, Jason Day
Evs Sam Burns, Emiliano Grillo, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka
The good news for those wanting an exciting denouement is that the leader doesn't always win.
This format has been going since 2019 and the winner has come from 5th, 1st, 1st and T6th pre-event.
Then again, the player who came from the pack (5th 2019, T6th 2022) both times was an inspired Rory McIlroy and maybe he's a law unto himself at this course and under this format.
As usual, punters can back the standard 'Winner' first past the post market for which Scheffler is 6/42.50, McIlroy 7/24.50, Hovland 5/16.00, Rahm 15/28.50 and 20/121.00 bar.
But there's also the Lowest 72 Hole Score (Excluding Handicap) market which has seven players under 20/121.00 so is more open: 5/16.00 McIlroy, 6/17.00 Scheffler, 9/110.00 Rahm, 10/111.00 Cantlay, 11/112.00 Hovland, 13/114.00 Schauffele and 18/119.00 Homa.
McIlroy, not surprisingly, won the Lowest 72-Hole Score when he triumphed in 2019 (-13) and 2022 (-17). Schauffele took fewest swishes (-15) in 2020 when Dustin Johnson scooped the main jackpot while Rahm and Kevin Na shot the 72-hole low (-14) in 2021 but that didn't stop Cantlay taking overall glory.
East Lake is a par 70 measuring 7,346 yards and now features Bermuda greens.
Steve Rawlings points out a strong correlation between East Lake and Sedgefield Country Club, home of the Wyndham Championship. It makes sense given that Donald Ross has had a hand in both designs.
I'll be clear, as to who scoops the jackpot and lifts the trophy this week it's hard to look beyond the top four: Scheffler, McIlroy, Hovland and Rahm. But they range from 6/42.50 to 15/28.50 and those aren't prices for this preview.
Hovland at 5/16.00 is my pick if playing that basic 'Winner market' and you can get him at 11/26.50 if playing 'Enhanced Win Only'.
The each-way terms of 1/5 Odds, 5 Places do give us some room for manoeuvre though. Even if the top four all hold their positions, one slot is still up for grabs and just maybe one of leading quartet will fall away once their winning chance has gone. Rahm, for example, was 31st out of 50 last week.
History also gives us hope. In the four years under this format, three players starting on -2 (tied 16th) grabbed a full payout place while two others shared tied fifth with one other.
The player I like from down in the pack is Russell Henley at -3 (tied 11th).
Henley heads to East Lake as one of the Tour's form players after finishing second, sixth and eighth in his last three starts.
The second place came at the Wyndham Championship which bodes well for the course correlation angle.
The idea that he likes both Sedgefield and East Lake is firmed up by his actual record here of course. He's only played twice but Henley was 12th on debut in 2014 and third on his most recent appearance in 2017 when closing 67-65 at the weekend.
Henley was fourth at Augusta National on his last trip to Georgia, that US Masters one of 11 top 20s he's managed since a tied 19th at The Players Championship in March.
Last week's eighth place in the BMW Championship was achieved with a flying finish. Hovland's Sunday 61 got all the attention and rightly so but Henley's final-round 63 wasn't too bad either.
The American is also worth a look for Lowest 72 Hole Score (Excluding Handicap).
Henley finished third in this market on his last appearance here six years ago when the format was just basic lowest gross total.
He fired rounds of 67-71-67-65 to finish on -10 alongside Kevin Kisner. That was just two back from winner Xander Schauffele.
On the stats that week, he ranked 5th for Strokes Gained: Putting and 6th for SG: Approach.
That virtually mirrors his closing round at the BMW Championship on Sunday when he was 6th for Putting and 3rd for Approach.
As well as trying to win a trophy and pocket himself some serious cash, Henley has another big incentive this week.
Right now, he's on the outside looking in when it comes to Ryder Cup selection. But his odds of 13/53.60 to make the USA Team show that he's close enough.
A huge performance here and Zach Johnson would have to consider him as a wildcard pick.
I'll also pick another form horse from the Lowest 72 Hole score market and side with Sungjae Im.
The Korean has shown plenty of form over the summer with 20th in The Open at Hoylake, 14th at the Wyndham and sixth and seventh in the first two Playoff events.
Going a little deeper, he was sixth at the FedEx. St Jude Championship, ranking 8th Off The Tee and 6th Tee To Green.
Im followed that with seventh at the BMW Championship where he was 5th Tee To Green.
So far in August, the 25-year-old has played 12 rounds of golf and shot in the 60s in all of them.
As for course form, he showed some promise on his first two visits, placing 15th on debut in 2019 and 12th in 2020 after opening 68-64 to share the halfway lead.
Last year he started out with a 67 and added laps of 65-66-66 to shoot the second best gross score of the week.
"The key to having a good score here at East Lake is hitting the fairways," he said 12 months ago so it bodes well that he returns having finished 9th for Driving Accuracy last week at the BMW and 15th for DA in the St. Jude.
Im went from hotel to hotel in the early part of his PGA Tour career but decided in 2021 to settle in Atlanta due to the ease of travel (it's a major transport hub and offers direct flights to Korea) and the Korean food.
With the greens Bermuda, the planets look aligned for the 2020 Honda Classic winner to make a big impression at East Lake again.
For the record, he'll start at -2 and is 110109/1 in the outright betting.