Players Championship 2026 First-Round Leader Tips: Dave Tindall's three to back up to 80/1

• 50/151.00 Daniel Berger has bounced back from a hurtful loss in the past

• 80/181.00 Taylor Pendrith struck it superbly last week and has FRL history here

• 70/171.00 Aaron Rai is a local resident and has a good record at Sawgrass

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The Players Championship weather forecast for Thursday

Temperatures in Ponte Vedra start in the high 60s and peak in the mid-to-high 70s in the afternoon. That's the easy bit.

Wind speeds pick up from 8mph to 15mph as the morning goes on and they pretty much stay there.

But there's a thunderstorm warning around 1pm that seems to last until 5pm. In other words, we may see players leaving the course.

Tee-times range from 07:40 to 14:30 so, all in all, it's simpler to go early and hope our players get finished.

History supports that as over the last five editions, 10 players have had a piece of the first-round lead and seven of those went off in the morning (six no later than 08:35).

I will just have one pick near the very end of the afternoon wave. There's a chance they'll then get to play the course in softer conditions on Thursday afternoon/Friday morning.

Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader Bet 1: Daniel Berger @ 50/151.00

I'll open with last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational runner-up Daniel Berger, who must be wondering how he let it slip away.

And yet let's recall 2022 when Berger had a five-shot lead going into the final round of another Florida event, the Cognizant Classic, and closed with a 74 to finish fourth.

How did he respond? By coming out a week later and shooting 67 in the first round at Sawgrass. That put him third after 18 holes.

So, in very similar circumstances, let's go for the repeat. Berger has made the top 20 in his last three Players Championship starts and he's been in the top seven after round one here three times.

In the last two weeks he's been the FRL at Bay Hill and third after the opening lap at the Cognizant.

Back Berger, who tees off at 07:52 from the 10th, for another fast start. He's 50s (1/4 Odds, 5 Places).

Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader Bet 2: Taylor Pendrith @ 80/181.00

A slightly more random pick this one although there is logic behind it. I'm looking for a morning starter, who has seen a recent spike in Approach figures (key here) and with good FRL history at Sawgrass.

Step forward Taylor Pendrith.

The Canadian ranked second for Approach and third Tee To Green at Bay Hill last week but had to settle for 38th due to a stone cold putter.

Perhaps it was the adjustment from west coast greens as he'd gained shots with the flatstick in his three previous events. Also note that he was sixth for SG: Putting at Sawgrass 12 months ago.

Pendrith has started with a round in the 60s on this par 72 in three of his four Sawgrass appearances and that's translated into first-round positions of third, ninth and 20th.

Looking at all events, he has two first-round leads in his last 31 events so is worth a look at 80s from his 08:16 tee-time (from the 10th). 

Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader Bet 3: Aaron Rai @ 70/171.00

Aaron Rai decided to swap Wolverhampton for Jacksonville just over three years ago so he's now only a five-minute drive from TPC Sawgrass.

He practises there a lot and, although the greens are much slicker in tournament week, he said last year: "I think there's definitely a lot of knowledge that you can apply tee to green which stands you in good stead."

So, does having local residency translate into good results? It seems it does.

On debut in 2023 he had a hole-in-one at the iconic par-3 17th on the way to a top 20 finish and he's since added 35th and 14th so his ball-striking prowess makes him a great fit (he's gained strokes for OTT and Approach in all three visits).

As for fast starts, Rai was eighth after round one last year (his best round so far is a 7-under 65 in round three in 2023).

Finally, Rai was the first-round leader at Riviera two starts ago and also ninth after 18 holes at the Cognizant a week later.

Given his 14:06 tee-time (first), it remains to be seen if, or how much, his round will be disrupted but let's back the Englishman at 70s and keep our fingers crossed that he gets to play Sawgrass in decent conditions.  

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