The Northern Trust First Round Leader: Rely on Rose in Boston opener

England's Justin Rose
Justin Rose can burst out of the blocks
Join today
View market

The FedEx Cup Playoffs start this week and Dave Tindall has three selections to make a fast start at TPC Boston...

"He opened with 63 to take the R1 lead in the Charles Schwab Challenge in June and started out with a 66 at the US PGA to lie third after day one."

Back Justin Rose each-way @ 55/1

Each-way terms: 1/5 odds, 6 places

Weather forecast for TPC Boston: There doesn't look much in the forecast to defend this very gettable layout. It's sunny all day with temperatures peaking in the mid-80s while winds speeds are modest at round 3-7mph.

First-round leader history at TPC Boston:

2018 - 65 Justin Rose
2017 - 66 Dustin Johnson
2016 - 65 James Hahn, Ryan Moore
2015 - 65 Brendon de Jonge
2014 - 63 Ryan Palmer
2013 - 63 Brian Davis, Phil Mickelson

Strategy: With good weather throughout, this is just a case of go out and make birdies. I'll take two early starters (smoother greens) and one late.

Rose can roar out of the blocks

Justin Rose has lots of good history at TPC Boston and he's made plenty of it on day one.

The Englishman has been first-round leader in the US Masters at Augusta National on three occasions so I'm hoping he can match that here.

That's because he's already held the 18-hole lead twice at this week's track, a 63 way back in 2003 securing top spot and a 65 doing the job when the course was last used in 2018.

Rose was also second after day one in 2004.

He's finished runner-up (2018) and T10 (2017) on his last two visits to TPC Boston, shooting a 65 in each year.

We're getting him at a relatively big price this week as Rose's form is up an down and includes four missed cuts since the June re-start.

However, he opened with 63 to take the R1 lead in the Charles Schwab Challenge in June and started out with a 66 at the US PGA to lie third after day one.

That helped him to tied ninth at TPC Harding so there are certainly some good signs.

Perhaps there was a hangover element when he posted a 73 on day one of the Wyndham last week but, although it didn't save him, a Friday 67 will hopefully give him some momentum to launch another fast start at TPC Boston.

Take Rose, who tees off at 08:48, at 55/1.

Moore of the same

Ryan Moore couldn't give us a return in this market last week but I'll try him again at 95/1.

Like Rose, he's no stranger to a fast start at TPC Boston and, looking at 18-hole positions, he's been first (2016), second (2007) and third (2010 and 2012) twice.

With three top 10s at the course in his last eight starts, Moore likes the set-up and twice he's opened with 64.

Despite an opening 67, he missed the cut at the Wyndham but he'd previously reeled off a pair of T12 finishes.

Both those had been fuelled by fast starts and it means his last three R1 scores read 65, 64 and 67.

We've seen him play some strong golf in the Playoffs previously and this looks an ideal venue for Moore to continue his recent spate of low openers.

He heads out in the very first group of the day (07:20) from the 10th tee.

Wolff can continue momentum

I want an afternoon starter so I'll go with Matthew Wolff, who must still be on a high after his superb fourth place in the US PGA Championship at Harding Park.

That was an exceptional performance, especially the closing 65 which accelerated him up the leaderboard.

Previously, Wolff's best work had come in birdie-fests so he should enjoy his first look at TPC Boston where the average winning score is better than 17-under.

In terms of good first-round performances, we saw strong evidence of that with a 65 at last month's 3M Open where he fired a 65 to sit third after Thursday's play.

Wolff has recorded a 65 in each of his last three tournaments so throws in plenty of low scores and I'm hoping the momentum from San Francisco can lead him to another one here.

The youngster, a 66/1 chance, tees it up at 12:44 from the 10th.

Staked: £570
Returned: £345.91
P/L: -£224.09

Dave Tindall,

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles