The Genesis Invitational 2026: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 18/1 to 45/1

• 18/119.00 Fleetwood looks ready to win big again

• 22/123.00 Local man Morikawa can follow up his Pebble win

• 45/146.00 Ludvig Aberg can thrive again in this event

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Introduction to The Genesis Invitational

After being switched to Torrey Pines last year due to the fires in Los Angeles, The Genesis Invitational returns to its regular home - Riviera Country Club.

'The Riv' is one of PGA Tour's great courses and, as with Pebble Beach last week, it's a shame that only a limited number of players get to battle it out there.

That's because this is a Signature Series event - already the third of the season - and the field is restricted to just 72 players. At least we have a cut this time with the top 50 and ties and those within 10 of the lead playing the weekend.

Tiger Woods plays host at a course which will also be the venue for the US Women's Open later this year and the Olympic Games in 2028.

There's a big link between winners at Riviera and Augusta National.

The last two champions here - Hideki Matsuyama (2024) and Jon Rahm (2023) - were both Masters winners, while fellow Green Jackets Adam Scott (2020) and Bubba Watson (2014, 2016 and 2018) also lifted the trophy at Riviera.

In other words, six of the last 10 Riviera winners had tasted glory at Augusta while, go a little further back and Green Jacket winners Phil Mickelson and Mike Weir both won this twice. 

This is all good news for Scottie Scheffler and indeed Rory McIlroy, who are 10/34.33 and 11/112.00 respectively.

Six of the last seven Riviera winners ranked in the top three for SG: Tee To Green on the par 71 which measures a 7,322 yards.

But, within that, Approach is king - especially with medium-to-long irons and that's why the Masters correlation probably kicks in so hard.

The large, Poa Annua greens run fast so lag putting is important.

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Bet 1: Tommy Fleetwood @ 18/119.00

After finally ending his long wait for a first win on American soil by landing the prestigious and money-laden Tour Championship, it'll be interesting to see if Tommy Fleetwood can catch another big fish.

After the levels he hit in the second half of 2025, there has to be every chance.

It was perhaps too much to expect Fleetwood to roar out of the blocks in 2026 after he'd clearly enjoyed his family time over Christmas.

But 25th at the Dubai Invitational was okay and despite only managing 41st in the Dubai Desert Classic - a venue where he's not always at his best - it was notable that Fleetwood ranked fifth for SG: Approach.

His first start on the PGA Tour came last week and, with expectations a little limited, he kept pushing to the end and emerged with an impressive tied fourth.

Fleetwood's end-of-round positions at Pebble were 19-17-7-4.

And, talking of progression, it continued his streak of improving his finish at Pebble on each visit. After a 45th on debut, Fleetwood has now finished 31st, 22nd and fourth.

I've highlighted that as it bodes well for what he's trying to pull off at Riviera this week.

The Ryder Cup star has teed it up on four previous occasions at the LA venue and has progressive form of 37-28-20-10.

His Riviera debut came in 2018 and he noted then: "I played it yesterday for the first time and it's a ball-striker's course, for sure. I've always wanted to come here and play it. And when you get here, the place doesn't disappoint, the course doesn't disappoint, but you're going to have to play well."

On his fifth visit, Fleetwood now has the tools and, just as importantly, the belief that he can win here. 

At Pebble the Englishman ranked third for SG: Tee To Green and he now has four top 10s in his last six starts in California. Three of those are top fives.

Add in another filter and he has four top fives in his last six starts with Poa Annua in the mix. 

The early 22s has gone but I'll still take Fleetwood at 18/119.00 to repeat his East Lake heroics and take down the world's best.

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Bet 2: Collin Morikawa @ 22/123.00 

"This course is one of my favorites out on Tour.  I grew up about 30, 40 minutes away, it's just very comfortable." 

So said Collin Morikawa in his press conference a couple of years ago and in his last three starts at Riviera he's finshed second (2022), sixth (2023) and 19th (2024).

The Californian is coming in off a brilliant win at Pebble Beach last week so it may seem a bit of a stretch for him to win back-to-back.

But why not?

Morikawa ranked first for SG: Tee To Green and first for Approach at Pebble where he fired 62-67 on the weekend.

He was also quite reflective in his winner's press conference, saying he'd needed to remind himself that golf was art as well as science.

Further perspective on hitting a little white ball around came from Morikawa's revelation that he and wife, Katherine, are expecting their first child in the spring.

A guy who won two of his first seven majors is clearly something very special and it's been a frustrating time for him over the last few seasons.

But when that ball-striking kicks in and the putter joins in, he's a demon. This is a perfect venue for him to stay hot and a trawl through his results shows that he does bunch good finishes.

"This is a course I've felt like I've always loved, I've had some pretty good rounds out here. It's just putting together four good ones," says Morikawa. 

On last week's evidence, he's very capable of that and 11 of his last 12 laps of Riviera have been par or better. Six of those were in fact 67s or better.

Given the way he's hitting it, if Morikawa has one of his spike putting weeks, he could be hard to stop.

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Bet 3: Ludvig Aberg @ 45/146.00

Ludvig Aberg is the defending champion this week although the obvious catch is that he won this event last year at a different venue - Torrey Pines.

However, that was still a California course with Poa Annua greens where elite long iron play is heavily rewarded so there are plenty of common traits.

There's also that Augusta connection.

Fleetwood (3rd in 2024) and Morikawa (five straight top 20s including third and fifth) have both performed well in recent Masters but Aberg could actually have won the last two.

He was tied for the lead in the final round in both his starts, eventually finishing runner-up in 2024 and seventh last year after being joint-leader with three to play.

Aberg has had rather a weird time of late, his hopes being compromised with early-season illness, just as they were last year before he came out and won this.

But let's recall that he ended 2025 with third in the DP World Tour Championship and after looking off the boil in his first two starts of 2026 (WD American Express, MC Farmers Insurance), Aberg recovered from an opening 75 to finish 37th at Pebble last week.

Drill down and he posted the joint-sixth best score over the final 54 holes and his SG: Approach figures (+3.68) in round three were only bettered by Morikawa.

Aberg has a win (Torrey Pines) and a second (Pebble 2024) in West Coast events and was a decent tied 19th on his one start at Riviera two years ago.

He has the air of a classy player who could just pop and 45s is a decent each-way price. 

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Now read Dave's US Masters Preview here or more Golf tips and previews here

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