50/1 Aaron Rai showed up well last year and has form
22/1 Gary Woodland looks primed to show his class again
It's been a golden season so far from Jon Rahm.
Three wins is an amount the majority of PGA Tour players battle to achieve over a lifetime. Rahm did it in the space of five starts on the West Coast Swing.
And then, of course, came his Masters win earlier this month, the Spaniard putting himself in position with an opening 65 before he held the field at bay on Sunday.
Rahm followed his first green jacket and second major triumph with a tied 15th at Hilton Head and, after a week off (from playing at least), he's back to defend another of his titles.
The 28-year-old took powered his way to victory here with 17-under last year, rounds of 64-66-68-69 putting him a shot clear of American trio Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama and Brandon Wu.
He did so thanks to an excellent display of driving and solid play across the board. Rahm's various Strokes Gained numbers: 2nd Off The Tee, 3rd Tee To Green, 22nd Around The Gtreen, 29th Approach, 18th Putting.
Off The Tee looked a particularly good pointer as the rankings of the first five home were 2nd, 17th, 11th, 7th and 15th. Cameron Champ, who topped that category, ended tied sixth, just two behind Rahm.
Within that, Driving Distance was a key pointer too. Rahm was 1st, Champ 2nd and eight of the top 10 were 13th or better for DD.
To paraphrase psychic Clinton Baptiste, I'm getting the words 'bomber's paradise'.
Rahm may well cruise to a second win here but 11/4 is of no interest in an each-way preview like this.
That makes sense for a track - the par 71 Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta - that measures 7,456 yards and has little protective rough.
It's Paspalum grass - the same as the other Mexico event, the Worldwide Technology Championship - so that offers another clue.
So to the first pick. Patrick Rodgers sits 33rd in Driving Distance this year and although many may have given him too many chances, the Californian could be entering his peak years.
Still just 30, he's racked up seven top 25s this season and that includes top 10s at two other coastal tracks: tied third in the Bermuda Championship and tied 10th in the RSM Classicc.
Rodgers was also solo fifth in the Valero Texas Open - another Norman design - two starts ago and backed that up with tied 19th at the RBC Heritage.
And then there's his tied 10th place here last year when he entered the final day in fourth spot.
Speaking after round three, Rodgers said: "I feel like the golf course suits me pretty well. It's long and you really have to pick your spots.
"I haven't done anything spectacular, either. I've just kind of taken advantage of the holes that are a little bit gettable."
That suggests a comfort zone and three top 20s at El Camaleon and another decent show in November (tied 27th) shows he likes his trips to Mexico.
With Rahm and Tony Finau the only players on show from the world's top 100, Rodgers can make a push for the title at 25/1.
It's easy just to focus on big hitters but such an approach means others with good credentials could slip the net.
Aaron Rai certainly isn't a bomber but his SG: Off The Tee numbers are strong. He's 47th overall and over the last eight weeks he ranks 4th in the field for OTT.
We also have evidence from 12 months ago that he can do well on this course.
The Englishman opened with a 65 and was in the top 10 after 18, 36 and 54 holes before slipping to tied 24th at the finish.
But he clearly took to the venue and said on day one: "I didn't really know what to expect coming into it, but absolutely love the course.
"It's in amazing shape. The greens are some of the best greens we see all year in terms of condition and fairways as well."
Rai also has a top 15 at El Camaleon and 28th and 29th on his last two starts on Norman's San Antonio Oaks Course.
Seventh at the Houston Open in November, Rai has made eight of his last nine cuts and that includes a top 20 in the Players Championship where he had the thrill of a hole-in-one at 17.
Last week he teamed up with David Lipsky to finish tied 13th in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans pairs event
After Thursday's 62, Lipsky said: " I'll be honest, it was all Aaron. The guy played great today. I think he had like seven birdies and an eagle."
With a nice mix of everything, Rai can make a bid at 50/1.
I was tempted by a couple of big-hitting Europeans in Nicolai Hojgaard and Matti Schmid.
But Hojgaard, despite his good play this year - second at the Corales Puntacana is a standout - is shorter than my third selection while Schmid hasn't managed a top 30 in seven starts on the PGA Tour since a top six at The American Express in January.
So step forward (and give it a whack!) Gary Woodland.
The 2019 US Open champion is ninth on on the PGA Tour for Driving Distance so is pumping it as long as ever.
And he's shown some decent signs of late, finishing ninth in the Genesis Invitational at Riviera and tied 14th in the US Masters where he was the fifth longest driver on show.
Woodland made the top 25 on this course last year following a missed cut at Augusta National and that adds to some impressive past form on Paspalum grass.
The 38-year-old has two second places and a fifth in the CIMB Classic in Malaysia while, much closer to this week's home, he was also a runner-up at El Camaleon.
Woodland was asked repeated questions about playing partner Brooks Koepka at Augusta and offered plenty of praise. But he did slip a little comment about his own game into the mix too.
"Yeah, at the end of the day, I'm getting back to that form, and it looks like he's getting back into form," said Woodland when comparing their play to that US Open duel at Pebble.
Woodland ranks 13th for SG: Off The Tee this season and 23rd in SG: Approach.
And with a real uptick in his Putting figures - he's 188th overall for SGP but has ranked 19th (Masters) and 11th (RBC Heritage) in his last two events - the pieces may be falling into place.