Steve Rawlings' Long Odds Golf Tips: Three to back at huge prices

Three picks from Steve this week

As highlighted in the preview, the last 10 winners of the BMW PGA Championship have all been priced up at a double-figure price, but it's been a decent event for outsiders historically.

I've picked out just one long-shot in that event, but I've got two in this week's brand-new event on the PGA Tour - the Biltmore Championship - which I've previewed here.

I'll start with the BMW PGA, where recent winner, Thriston Lawrence, looks a great price at almost 200/1201.00 ...

BMW PGA Championship Bet - Thriston Lawrence @ 190.0189/1

South Africa's Thriston Lawrence managed to beat Paul Casey in a playoff at Crans two weeks ago after amassing an 18-under-par total, despite shooting a three-over-par 73 on Saturday.

That was his third win at the Omega European Masters, so he clearly loves it there, but he's also performed nicely at Wentworth previously too, trading at a low of 1.3130/100 two years ago before losing in extra time.

It's asking a lot for him to win so soon after his third Swiss success, but he wouldn't be the first to double up on the DP World Tour this season.

Jayden Schaper and Casey Jarvis have both won back-to-back and both Patrick Reed and Eugenio Chacarra have won two events in the space of three weeks.

Lawrence missed the cut in Ireland last week but that's perfectly understandable after his win the week before and the market had definitely overreacted.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1

Biltmore Championship Bet #1 - Erik Van Rooyen @ 180.0179/1

As highlighted in the preview, this year's first Fall Series event is a brand-new one, the Biltmore Championship, so we're taking in a venue not used before on the PGA Tour.

We're clearly operating in the dark to a certain extent, but I felt that the course that may correlate best with the Jack Nicklaus designed Cliffs at Walnut Cove, is another of his layouts at altitude, the old Greenwood Course at the Tahoe Mountain Club, which has hosted the Barracuda Championship since 2020.

South Africa's Erik Van Rooyen won the Barracuda in 2021, and he also finished sixth in 2023 and runner-up in the event in the last edition last year (it fell off the schedule this year).

He also finished second in his homeland around another Nicklaus layout with bentrass greens (St Francis Links) in 2014 and he was the runner-up in the Cognizant Classic in 2024.

The Cognizant is staged at PGA National which was designed by Tom Fazio but it was completely revamped by Nicklaus in 1990 so that too could be a clue.

Van Rooyen last won on the PGA Tour at another Fall Series event, the World Wide Technology, in 2023 so it's been a while since he tasted success.

He missed the cut at the Irish Open last week, but he'd sat second with 18 to play the week before in the Omega European Masters at Crans (finished 18^th) so he's shown signs of life very recently and odds of almost [200/1 are just too big.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1

Biltmore Championship Bet #2 - Nick Dunlap @ 500.0499/1

The 2024 Barracuda Championship winner, Nick Dunlap, has been woefully out of form for a while now and he's missed his last three cuts but he's too big to ignore at 500/1501.00.

Dunlap, who's still only 22, also won the 2024 edition of the American Express, when still an amateur.

That event is staged over three different courses but the host venue, which the field play twice over the week, is the Jack Nicklaus designed Nicklaus Tournament Course so he's another that may enjoy this week's venue.

Dunlap's embryonic career may well fizzle out but he's one of only eight men to win on the PGA Tour as an amateur and the last one before him was Phil Mickleson way back in 1991.

He's still very young and clearly very talented so I was happy to give him a go at a huge price too.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1

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