BMW PGA Championship: The Punter's Preview

---

BMW PGA Championship tournament history

Originally known as the British PGA Championship and first staged in 1955, the BMW PGA Championship has been the DP World Tour's flagship event since its inception in 1972.

The tournament used to be staged in May but when the US PGA Championship moved to May in 2019, the DP World Tour made the sensible decision to move the BMW PGA to September, and it worked. The quality of the field improved immediately.

Following the Dubai Desert Classic in January and the Scottish Open in July, the BMW PGA Championship is the third of five Rolex Series events to be staged this year, with the last two - the ABU Dhabi Championship and the DP World Tour Championship - being staged in two months' time.

---

Venue

Wentworth (West Course), Surrey, England.

---

Course details

Par 72 - 7,267 yards

Designed by Harry Colt and opened in 1926, the West Course has undergone a series of alterations in recent years, under the supervision of Ernie Els.

All the greens were remodelled in 2009/10 and the par five finishing hole was radically changed. At the mercy of modern equipment, the old 18th was an almost given birdie and a great eagle chance but now, with a large stream snaking its way in front of the green, it's a stunning risk/reward finishing hole.

Wentworth is a tight, fairly flat, tree-lined heathland course with tricky-to-read greens that were all changed before the 2017 renewal. The bentgrass/poa unua blend was replaced with pure bentgrass to get a truer and faster roll and a brand-new sub-air system was installed throughout the course to help keep the greens fast and dry.

In addition to the changes made to the greens, the bunkering throughout the course was changed to try and restore the course closer to its original Harry Colt ethos. It was felt that previous reworks had produced bunkering that was just too deep and not in keeping with the original design philosophy.

Wentworth used to stage the now defunct Volvo World Match Play at this time of year so high-class autumnal golf at Surry's finest is nothing new.

---

Weather forecast

---

TV coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 8:30 on Thursday.

---

Last 10 winners with pre-event Betfair Exchange prices

2025 - Alex Noren -19 (playoff) 55.054/1
2024 - Billy Horschel -20 (playoff) 36.035/1
2023 - Ryan Fox -18 65.064/1
2022 - Shane Lowry -17 (54-holes) 19.018/1
2021 - Billy Horschel -19 36.035/1
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton -19 22.021/1
2019 - Danny Willett -20 80.079/1
2018 - Francesco Molinari -17 22.021/1
2017 - Alex Noren -11 22.021/1
2016 - Chris Wood -9 70.069/1

---

A statistical look at the BMW PGA Championship?

Last year's winner, Alex Noren, ranked only 72^nd for Driving Distance and he ranked 34^th when he won here for the first time in 2017. He ranked 16^th for Driving Accuracy last year and 32^nd in 2017.

Byeong Hun An ranked first for DD and only 35^th for DA 11 years ago and Rory McIlroy ranked fourth and 29^th for those two metrics in 2014, but most winners rank better for accuracy than they do for distance off the tee.

I'd fractionally favour accuracy over distance but as demonstrated by Matteo Manassero in 2013, when he won ranking 70^th for DD and 47^th for DA, neither metric is crucial here.

Manassero may not have been long or especially accurate off the tee but ranked but he ranked fourth for Greens In Regulation and that's the key stat here.

Billy Horschel only ranked 28^th for GIR two years ago and the 2023 winner, Ryan Fox, only ranked 38^th but the player to hit more greens than anyone else placed in each of those two editions and the 2021 and 2022 winners, Horschel and Shane Lowry, both topped the Greens In Regulation rankings.

Last year's playoff protagonists, Noren and Adrien Saddier, ranked second and sixth for GIR and 12 of the last 20 winners have ranked inside the top-four for GIR.

Scrambling has been a key stat of late too.

Noren only ranked 21^st for Scrambling last year but he ranked fourth when he won in 2017 and the three playoff protagonists in 2024, Horschel, Rory McIlroy and Thriston Lawrence, all ranked inside the top 10 for Scrambling.

The 2023 winner, Fox, ranked fifth, with Aaron Rai, who finished tied for second, ranking third. And the first three home four years ago ranked first, second and third.

Horschel ranked third when he won here for the first time five years ago and a year earlier, Tyrrell Hatton won ranking first. Danny Willett only ranked eighth in 2019 but the best three scramblers all finished inside the top seven, Francesco Molinari scrambled better than anyone else when winning here seven years ago and the first five home when Noren won the title for the first time, in 2017, all ranked inside the top-eight for Scrambling.

The last three winners have all putted very nicely.

Noren ranked sixth for Putting Average and third for Strokes Gained: Putting, Horschel ranked first for both PA and for SG: Putting, and Fox ranked sixth for SG: Putting and second for PA, but you can most definitely win here without putting brilliantly.

Shane Lowry ranked 19^th for SG: Putting and 55^th for PA four years and Horschel only ranked 42^nd and 29^th in 2021. And prior to the changes to the greens, before the 2017 edition, several players took the title despite putting fairly poorly. Anders Hansen ranked just 46th for Putting Average when he won the second of his two titles in 2007 and Simon Khan putted even worse in 2010, when he ranked 55^th.

---

Course form counts at Wentworth

Wentworth is a nuanced track, and past course form counts for plenty.

In six previous visits to Wentworth, 20^th was the best Ryan Fox had mustered before he took the title three years ago, but he was an unusual winner. Most victors here have shown a liking to the venue and the last two victors were both winning the title for a second time.

Lowry had finished inside the top six places four times before he won here four years ago and he'd also led the 2020 edition at halfway before finishing 13^th.

Horschel had finished fourth two years prior to his first win on his only prior appearance and year after year we see the same faces in-the-mix. Most winners have previous form around Wentworth, even if it dates back a few years...

The 2020 winner, Tyrrell Hatton, had Wentworth figures reading 38-46-7-30-MC-MC (with the seventh place dating back to 2016), and the 2019 champ, Danny Willett, had finished fifth here on debut nine years earlier and he'd finished third in 2016.

Having finished inside the top nine places in four of his five previous visits, Francesco Molinari won here eight years ago, a year after finishing second to Noren, who finished third behind Molinari when defending, with the 2014 winner, Rory McIlroy, finishing second! And back in 2017, three of the top five had finished at least eighth previously.

Luke Donald (back-to-back in 2011 and 2012) was the last multiple event winner before Horschel and Noren both doubled up and multiple winners are fairly common. Peter Alliss, Colin Montgomerie, and Bernard Langer have all won the event three times (Monty did in consecutive years between 1998 and 2000) and Nick Faldo has won it four times.

---

A trio of correlating courses to consider

It's impossible to ignore how many players have played well here and at Crans, the venue of the European Masters two weeks ago.

The likes of Nick Faldo, Seve Ballesteros, Colin Montgomerie, Luke Donald, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Danny Willett, and Alex Noren have all won both events at least once and there are numerous examples of players winning one and finishing second in the other or finishing second in both.

That list includes this year's Crans winner, Lawrence, who traded at as low as 1.3130/100 here two years ago, Rory, Francesco Molinari, Lee Westwood, Ernie Els, and Trevor Immelmann. And Crans specialist, Thomas Bjorn, really should have won this event back in 2015 when he led by five after three rounds.

In the 2023 edition, the 2023 European Open winner, Ludvig Aberg, and the 2019 champ, Sebastian Soderberg, were tied for the lead at halfway and Aberg traded at a low of 2.6213/8 here last year.

The 2023 and 2025 editions of the Irish Open at the K Club may prove to be great pointers again.

Saddier, who lost in a playoff here, led the 2025 Irish Open with 18 to play and Ryan Fox had finished tied third alongside Wentworth specialist, Shane Lowry, in the 2023 eition before he won here.

The K Club is a tree-lined parkland course like Wentworth and form at the two venues has crossed over numerous times.

Prior to the 2023 edition of the Irish Open at the K Club, which was won by Vincent Norrman, the previous six players to win at the K Club - Rory, Kennie Ferrie, Phillip Price, Michael Campbell, Darren Clarke, and Lee Westwood - all had at least a top four finish at Wentworth.

And finally, another tree-lined track that correlates nicely is Sedgefield Country Club, that hosts the Wyndham Championship on the PGA Tour.

Noren has finished third and seventh in each of the last two editions of the Wyndham and the 2024 Wyndham winner, Aaron Rai, has finished second, fourth and third in the last three editions of this event.

Wentworth winners, Luke Donald, Billy Horschel, and Byeong-Hun An, have all finished second in the Wyndham recently, LIV Golf rebels, Patrick Reed, Branden Grace, and Tyrrell Hatton, all have form at the two tracks and Tom Kim, who won the Wyndham in 2022 performed admirably on debut here three years ago until the weather turned on Sunday.

Adam Scott, who really should have won the Wyndham five years ago, also contended at Wentworth in 2023, finishing tied for seventh.

---

Are we due a long-shot winner at Wentworth?

The last 10 winners have all gone off at a double-figure price and four of them were very well fancied but historically, it's been a cracking event for outsiders.

A second win for Denmark's Anders Hansen (2007) and victories for Simon Khan (2010) and Matteo Manassero (2013) were unexpected and very few saw Byeong-Hun An's victory coming 11 years ago. And there was a four-year stretch at the turn of the century when the winners were almost impossible to predict. After Monty had won his three in-a-row, Andrew Oldcorn, Anders Hansen, Ignacio Garrido and Scott Drummond all left punters scratching their heads.

---

The English have a strong record in their home event

With Luke Donald winning back-to-back titles in 2011 and 2012, seven different Englishman have won eight of the last 20 renewals and it could easily have been more.

Rai, Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick all finished inside the top five and ties last year, and Hatton and Rai also finished tied for second three years ago.

---

Winner's position and Betfair Exchange price pre-round four

2025 - Alex Noren - tied for the lead 2.915/8
2024 - Billy Horschel - tied second, trailing by three 5.85/1
2023 - Ryan Fox - tied fourth, trailing by three 16.015/1
2022 - Shane Lowry - tied sixth, trailing by two 11.010/1
2021 - Billy Horschel - tied third, trailing by two 7.87/1
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton - led by three 1.9620/21
2019 - Danny Willett - tied for the lead 7.06/1
2018 - Francesco Molinari - tied for the lead 3.259/4
2017 - Alex Noren T23 - trailing by seven 220.0219/1
2016 - Chris Wood T5 - trailing by three 16.531/2

---

Chancing chasers on a Sunday has been a great tactic

Noren was tied for the lead with 18 to play 12 months ago and four of the 10 winners before him have been in front with a round to play but three of the four were tied for the lead and they were the least likely of the tied leaders to win through 54 holes.

Back in 2015, Byeong-Hun An was tied with Francesco Molinari, who was tied with Rory before the final round in 2018 and seven years ago, Danny Willett entered the final round tied at the top with Jon Rahm.

Noren headed the market last year and Hatton was the favourite before round four - six years ago but the favourite before the final round has been beaten in 10 of the last 12 years and we've seen some quite remarkable off-the-pace winners here over the years...

For the majority of tournaments, I stress the importance of being up in the van throughout, getting a fast start and being up with the leaders, but not here.

I've gone as far back as 1990 and other than Hatton in 2020, who was tied for the lead, the only leader or co-leader after round one to go on to take the title is Luke Donald. He went wire-to-wire in 2011, before beating Lee Westwood in a play-off.

Paul Casey won doggedly after hitting the front at halfway in 2009, as did David Howell in 2006, and between 2000 and 2002, all three 36-hole winners went on to convert but the leaders are always vulnerable here and I'll definitely be looking closely at those off the pace with a round to go again.

Noren may have been in front last year, but he was matched at 220.0219/1 on Sunday morning nine years ago. He sat outside the top 20 with a round to go, and that's as far off the lead as any winner has been at Wentworth through 54 holes since 1990 but he was the third winner in eight years to trail by seven strokes with a round to go.

Simon Khan sat tied for 13^th and seven back before his win in 2010 and Rory McIlroy trailed Thomas Bjorn by seven in 2014 (Bjorn was matched in-running at just 1.21/5).

Between 1990 and 2006, 12 of the 16 winners led or co-led with a round to go and Tony Johnstone, in 1992, was the only winner not to be inside the front three places through 54 holes. He sat tied for fifth and three off the lead, but it's been a completely different kettle of fish since David Howell's victory in 2006.

In addition to the three aforementioned winners from seven adrift, we've seen victories from three, four and five strokes back.

It's not going to happen every year, and it didn't 12 months ago, but being patient in-running and waiting for Sunday to play the chasers at big prices has been a great way to play the tournament of late.

In addition to all those big off-the-pace winners, we've had a number of players come close to snatching an unlikely win.

I backed Hatton at halfway at 120.0119/1 last year when he trailed by seven and he was matched at 3.052/1 on Sunday. And we nearly witnessed another huge comeback four years ago when Jon Rahm finished second, beaten by a stroke...

Having been a 300.0299/1 chance before the third and final round, Rahm was matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running as he played his first eight holes of round three in just one-under-par but after a birdie at the tough ninth, he flew home in 29, despite bogeying the 15^th, to post a ten-under-par 62.

In addition to Rahm, the runner-up, Rikard Karlberg, began the final day fully eight strokes adrift of the third-round leader, Scott Hend, in 2016.

Like Rahm, he too was matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running and like Rahm, he dropped a shot late on when he bogeyed the 16th hole. Both men lost by a stroke and both were matched at single-figure prices. Karlberg was matched at just 7.87/1 and Rahm hit a low of 5.24/1.

Unless we get a weather delay like we did in 2022, the BMW PGA Championship is over four rounds and four days, just like any other ordinary stroke play event on the DP World or PGA Tour, but it somehow feels like a longer tournament than most and the winning line feels like it's a long way off.

In the last 12 years, we've seen five players trade at odds-on and lose before the fourth round has even begun and two of them went odds-on during round two!

Just like Thomas Bjorn in 2014 and Francesco Molinari in 2015, Jon Rahm was matched at odds-on during round three in 2019 (1.422/5) and Rory McIlroy hit the front as early as Friday morning in 2018, when he went as low as 1.548/15. And he was the second player in three years to go odds-on during round two and fail to get home! Danny Willet hit 1.855/6 on Friday in 2016.

---

Late drama is the norm here

Adrian Saddier, who lost at the first extra hole, was matched at 1.528/15, and he was the only other player to trade at odds-on last year but the 54-hole leader, Matteo Manassero, and the two beaten playoff protagonists, all hit odds-on in round four in 2024, hitting lows of 1.9420/21, 1.51/2 and 1.282/7, Tyrrell Hatton hit a low of just 1.292/7 during round four in 2023 and two players traded at odds-on on Sunday in 2021 before losing. Kiradech Aphibarnrat was matched at 1.618/13 and Laurie Canter 1.511/2.

The change from May to September might, in the fullness of time, see a change to the trends as the course shouldn't firm up as much in autumn as it did in the spring but backing longshots from off the pace here through 54 holes and laying odds-on shots over the weekend often pays dividends.

---

Bookmark Betting.Betfair for golf betting tips every week

---