Golf Bets

Find Me a 100 Winner: Six long shots backed at the RSM Classic

Golfer Henrik Norlander
Henrik Norlander - one of six outsiders fancied at the RSM Classic

Fresh off his success in Bermuda last week with 160.0159/1 chance, Camilo Villegas, our man's picked out all six of his triple-figure priced fancies in the RSM Classic on the PGA Tour...

For the second week in-a-row, there's absolutely no debate as to which is the strongest event this week.

Many of the world's best players are assembling in the UAE for the Dubai World Tour Championship this week but given only two of the previous 14 winners have gone off at odds in excess of 100.099/1, it's probably not the tournament to concentrate on.

Matthew Fitzpatrick, in 2016, was a 110.0109/1 chance and Danny Willett won at 150.0149/1 in 2018 but it's an event that tends to be dominated by the fancied players and the only other remotely big-priced winner was Alvaro Quiros at 44.043/1 12 years ago.

As highlighted in the preview, the last 11 editions have been won by a major champion and no outsiders contended last year.

Adrian Meronk, who finished tied for seventh, was the only player trading at more than 50.049/1 before the off to finish inside the top-eight so despite quite liking Matt Cooper's each-way fancy, Sami Valimaki, who's trading at 160.0159/1 on the exchange, I'm going to concentrate on this week's PGA Tour event - the RSM Classic - which has been a great event for outsiders since it's inception in 2010.

As many as six of the last eight winners have gone off at a triple-figure price, so after hitting the jackpot with Wyndham Clark at 120.0119/1 in the US Open, Lee Hodges at 100.099/1 at the 3M Open, and Camilo Villegas last week in Bermuda at 160.0159/1, the RSM is the event to concentrate on in search of a fourth column winner in six months.

This is the seventh and final FedEx Fall Series event and as the need for a strong week for those outside the top-125 in the FedEx Cup standings has become more urgent, we've witnessed a couple of winners whose playing privileges were firmly on the line.

Luke List, who won the second Fall Series event - the Sanderson Farms Championship - had won the Farmers Insurance Open last January. He's merely extended his exemption and three of the first four Fall Series events were won by someone safely inside the top-50 in the standings - Sahith Theegala, Tom Kim and Collin Morikawa - but it's been all change in the last couple of weeks.

Erik Van Rooyen, who sat on the mark at 125 before winning the World Wide Technology and Vilegas, who had moved up from 223 to 147 in Mexico before he won in Bermuda, both had uncertain futures and both events had plenty of contenders looking to secure their playing privileges for next year.

van rooyen wins in Mexico.jpg

As many as five of the top-nine were ranked between 113 and 223 in the standings in Mexico and nine of the top-12 in Bermuda last week were ranked between 116 and 184.

With all that in mind, I've picked out six players ranked between 124 and 135 in the rankings and first up is one of last week's contenders - Carl Yuan.

Carl Yuan @ 160.0159/1

Having finished sixth in the Fortinet Championship and fourth last week in Bermuda, 26-year-old Carl Yuan, who sits right on the cut off point at 125, has given himself a great chance to earn his card for next year.

As a winner on the Korn Ferry Tour in Louisiana back in February, and with back-to-back seventh placed finishes in Georgia at the Club Car Championship, Yuan looks a very fair price at 160.0159/1 to build on last week's top-four at a track that correlates brilliantly.

Back Carl Yuan (2u) @ 160.0159/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

Cameron Champ @ 160.0159/1

Cameron Champ, who sits at 135th in the standings, traded at odds-on here back in 2018 so we know the venue suits and whilst he's proven a bit frustrating to follow over the last month or so, there have definitely been signs of encouragement.

Cameron Champ shriners.jpg

A ninth-place finish at the Sanderson Farms is the highlight but he's made his last four cuts, and he knows how to win.

Champ is in search of his fourth PGA Tour title and he too looks over-priced at 160.0159/1.

Back Cameron Champ (2U) @ 160.0159/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

Patton Kizzire @ 240.0239/1

Although he was ultimately a little disappointing, finishing 37th on debut in Bermuda, last week's 110.0109/1 fancy, Patton Kizzire, is chanced again at more than twice that price.

Sitting at 130 on the standings, the 37-year-old needs a strong week but given both his two previous PGA Tour wins - the World Wide Technology in 2017 and the Sony Open in 2018 - came at tracks that correlate brilliantly with this venue. He was tenth here three years ago and I thought he was worth chancing.

Back Patton Kizzire (1.5U) @ 240.0239/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

Back Henrik Norlander @ 330.0329/1

Having slipped to 126 in the standings, 36-year-old Swede, Henrik Norlander, is arguably the most obvious of my selections this week.

Norlander, who has event form figures reading MC-2-54-54-5-MC-39, is a two-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour and he's a little unfortunate not to have won on the PGA Tour too.

He won the Hotel Fitness comfortably by three strokes in 2015 after a sensational 62 on Sunday but he was involved in a five-man playoff when he claimed his second victory on the Korn Ferry, at the 2019 Wichita Open. He's twice lost a five-man playoff on the PGA Tour - here in 2016 and at the Sanderson Farms Championship last month.

Back Henrik Norlander (1U) @ 330.0329/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

C.T Pan @ 360.0359/1

Sitting at number 129, Taiwan's CT Pan is another that needs a good week and given his sole success on the PGA Tour came around the corner at Harbour Town in 2019, and that he finished sixth and 13th on his first two appearances at this event, he looks a massive price too.

Pan wins Heritage.jpg

He hasn't played well lately, missing his last two cuts after withdrawing from the Shriners after round one. However, strong current form is far from essential here and he did at least finish inside the top-ten at the Fortinet last month and he was third in the Canadian Open in June.

He's missed his last two cuts here but the venue suits his game and he has a habit of finding form out of the blue.

Back C.T Pan (1U) @ 360.0359/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

Nico Enchavarria @ 670.0669/1

Colombia's Nico Echavarria missed four cuts in-a-row after he'd finished an eye-catching 12th in the Sony Open in January, but that didn't stop him winning his first PGA Tour title - the Puerto Rico Open - in March.

It often takes a bit of time to come to terms with your first big win and that's certainly been the case with Echavarria, who missed 15 of his next 17 cuts. There have been signs of stability of late given he's made it through to the weekend in each of the last two events.

He missed the cut here on debut last year and he can't be described as playing brilliantly but after Villegas celebrated with him in Puerto Rico in March, he was on hand in Bermuda to open the champagne and his fellow countryman's success might just inspire him.

He's clearly a very speculative punt but this is most definitely an event in which it's well worth throwing a few outlandish darts.

Back Nico Echavarria (0.5U) @ 670.0669/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

Read my RSM Classic preview here


Staked: 217 Us

Returned: 558 Us

P/L: +341 Us


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