Find Me a 100 Winner: 159/1 Taylor is fair price and Villegas is worth risk at 999/1

Golfer Nick Taylor
Nick Taylor in action at teh Phoenix Open

The PGA Tour takes in the Players Championship at Sawgrass and our man has three triple-figure priced selections ahead of Thursday's start here...

  • Three picks up to 999/11000.00 and two honourable mentions

  • Read Dave Tindall's Each-Way column here

  • Read my Players Championship preview here

  • The last four winners of the Players Championship have been fairly well fancied, but this hasn't been a bad event for outsiders over the years.

    Webb Simpson was matched at 110.0109/1 before the off when he won here in 2018, the 2017 winner, Si Woo Kim, was matched 1000.0999/1, and Martin Kaymer was matched at a triple-figure price before he held off Jim Furyk t10 years ago.

    As highlighted in the preview, the draw has been hugely significant lately and the best course correlation is with Sedgefield Country Club.

    Kaymer was the last afternoon starter on Thursday to win here and 15 of the last 17 winners were drawn AM-PM so I've only considered early starters.

    Form at Sedgefield Country Club appears to correlate brilliantly with Sawgrass, with six winners of the Wyndham Championship there also winning here. Strong current form has been key of late here too.

    TPC Sawgrass 2024 2.jpg

    Other aspects have been considered, such as strong Driving Accuracy numbers (the rough is up this year) and Scrambling statistics (always a key metric), and after much deliberation, I've got three picks and two honourable mentions.

    Nick Taylor @ 160.0159/1

    Canada's Nick Taylor ticks all the above boxes and he also has the sort of course form figures that closely matches many a winner of the Players Championship (see preview), reading 73-MC-MC-16-48-MC.

    There's nothing spectacular there but his 16th placed finish in 2019 is eye-catching, given he sat tied for 86th after round one, so we know he can play Sawgrass.

    He has a couple of top-10 finishes at the aforementioned Sedgefield, he's ranked 21st, 24th and 15th for DA and first, 18th and sixth for Scrambling on each of his last three starts, and he arrives in very decent form.

    Having become the first Canadian to win his national open in 69 years in June last year, and having won the Phoenix Open as recently as last month, Taylor has won two of his last 17 starts on the PGA Tour. His 12th placed finish in last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational demonstrated his current wellbeing.

    With a nice early start on Thursday morning, Taylor has plenty in his favour this week and I like his chances at a juicy price.

    Back Nick Taylor (2 Us) @ 160.0159/1

    Bet here

    Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

    Brendon Todd @ 200.0199/1

    The straight hitting three-time PGA Tour winner, Brendon Todd, has only ordinary course form figures reading 51-MC-35-MC-27 and up until 2021 he hadn't played well at Sedgefield. But he's finished 10th, 36th and seventh there in each of the last three years and he really caught the eye last week when finishing sixth and topping the Scrambling stats at Bay Hill.

    Brendon todd at the JDC 23.jpg

    Like Taylor, Todd has an early tee time on day one and so do the two men who nearly made the portfolio.

    Back Brendon Todd (1.5 Us) @ 200.0199/1

    Bet here

    Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

    It's very rare to see the Sedgefield winner, Tom Kim, trading at a triple-figure price but he's woefully out of form at present and that's off-putting.

    Alex Noren finished 10th and 17th here on his first two visits so he clearly has the game for the venue, and he has just the right skillset too.

    The Swede consistently ranks highly for Driving Accuracy and Scrambling and he's in fair form given he finished ninth at the Cognizant Classic last time out.

    He's a 10-time winner on the DP World Tour but he's yet to win on the PGA Tour and that's a negative. He's finished second three times and the man who beat him into second most recently, Camilo Villegas, looks worth throwing a few pounds at this week at 1000.0999/1.

    Camilo Villegas @ 1000.0999/1

    The Colombian has gone off the boil completely since winning the Bermuda Championship ahead of Noren in November but Villegas is a former winner of the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield and finished third here on debut way back in 2006.


    It's very hard to imagine him winning this week given how poorly he's playing at present but that's all in the price and he's another who starts early on Thursday.

    Back Camilo Villegas (0.5 Us) @ 1000.0999/1

    Bet here

    Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

    Now Read my Players Championship preview here

    *You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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