Houston Open 2026 First-Round Leader Tips: Dave Tindall's three to back up to 60/1

Houston Open weather forecast for Thursday

Weather-wise, it's one of those days where both temperatures and wind speeds rise as the day goes on.

Temps start in the high 60s before peaking just below 90 at 4pm. Winds climb from 6mph for the very early starters to 11mph mid-morning and hit 14mph at 4pm.

A 65 on this par 70 has been good enough for a piece of the first-round lead in four of the last five editions. It required a 64 in 2024.

Of the 16 players to have been FRL in that time, nine hit off in the morning and seven in the afternoon. There's no huge bias but I'll pick two early and one late.

First Round Leader Bet 1: Keith Mitchell @ 40/141.00

Keith Mitchell loves a first-round lead.

He did it three times in 2025 and one of those was at this very course when the man with the visor opened with a 65. 

Mitchell, who added a Saturday 66 on the way to tied 18th, was also fourth after 18 holes in 2022 and ninth following the opening lap in 2021.

More recently, he was in the top 10 after day one of two of the Florida Swing events: the Cognizant where he finished sixth and the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

He gets to play the course early - Mitchell is in the second group out from the 10th at 07:31 - so can hopefully throw in another Thursday low one at a course that really suits. 

Back Mitchell at 40s (1/4 Odds, 5 Places).

First Round Leader Bet 2: Rickie Fowler @ 35/136.00

It may come as a surprise that Rickie Fowler isn't yet in the Masters field.

He can put that right by winning here or forcing his way into the world's top 50 (he's currently 61st).

Talking of the majors, Fowler has twice been FRL in the US Open. And in the 2023 edition at LA Country Club, he shot the joint-lowest round in the history of the majors: a 62.

The Californian has been in fine form this season with a ninth and three other top 20s and he's been third and sixth pre-cut in two of those.

He's a former first-round leader in this event although admittedly on another course and, with that Masters incentive in mind, it's easy to see him getting his head down and making birdies early.

Fowler begins from the 10th at 07:42.

First Round Leader Bet 3: Tony Finau @ 66/167.00

Like Fowler, Tony Finau doesn't have a Masters invite and his is an even tougher mountain to climb.

To keep his streak of Augusta National appearances going (it started in 2018), Big Tone has to get a win.

That may be too much but he's flashed some good form in recent weeks and, notably, Finau has been doing his best work on day one.

In his last four starts, his first-round positions include a fourth, a 10th and a 17th.

Adding to his appeal here is that Finau went wire-to-wire in this event in 2022, setting the pace with a 65. 

As well as that win, he has a second place in 2024 and also holds the course record of 62 having shot that number twice (both on Friday).

Finau is my afternoon starter at 12:42 from the 1st.

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