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Golf Tips: Best bets for Genesis Invitational and Thailand Classic

Max Liu
15 February 2023

Golfer Justin Thomas at the Genesis Invitational

Justin Thomas is among the frontrunners for this week's Genesis Invitational

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Get our golf experts' best bets for this week's PGA and DP World Tour events the Genesis Invitational and Thailand Classic...

Steve Rawlings' in-depth previews
Dave Tindall backs Morikawa at 20/1
Matt goes with Guido at 50/1
Harman a hot price at 199/1
FRL tips, course info & more

Genesis Invitational: Masters link points to Matsuyama

Steve Rawlings says: "This is a fabulous venue and a tough examination so it's no surprise to see that major winners have a fantastic record. Riviera has hosted the event 59 times now and a major winner has won on 34 occasions.

"The US Masters winners have by far the best record. Following Adam Scott's win here three years ago, and Dustin Johnson's success at Augusta in November 2020, 12 different US Masters winners have won 22 of the 59 renewals of the Genesis Invitational at Riviera...

"Major winners may have won on many occasions but there's no getting away from the fact that outsiders can and do prosper here regularly.

"Last year's winner, Niemann was well tipped but he was matched at 100.0 when the market first opened. The 2021 winner, Max Homa, was generally an 80.0 chance before the off. But he too was matched at triple-figures...

"Matsuyama started last week's Phoenix Open too slowly to contend (finished 29th). However, he was ninth at the farmers insurance in his penultimate start and, with Riviera form figures reading 23-4-11-MC-9-5-MC-39, looked a very fair price."

Steve's bet: Back Hideki Matsuyama @ 70.069/1

The Genesis Invitational Each-Way Tips: Morikawa ready to strike

Dave Tindall says: "Like last week, the front of the market is teeming with quality and there's a very decent chance one of Jon Rahm (7/1), Rory McIlroy (10/1), Scottie Scheffler (10/1), Justin Thomas (14/1), Xander Schauffele (14/1) or Tony Finau (16/1) will hoist the silverware.

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"But, given his record in California, Collin Morikawa is the one I like best as an each-way proposition at 20s. Morikawa won a major in his home State when capturing the 2020 US PGA Championship at Harding Park near San Francisco.

"And here are his last three starts in California: fourth in the US Open at Torrey Pines, runner-up in this event last year and third in the Farmers Insurance Open a few weeks ago. In other words, he's something of a stud in the Golden State."

Dave's bet: Back Collin Morikawa each-way @ 21.020/1

Find Me a 100 Winner: World number 25 overlooked in LA

Steve Rawlings says: "Shane Lowry, looks a big price at 180.0, but there are reasons why the Irishman trades at such a big price. Lowry has missed his last couple of cuts, and he doesn't have the course experience that most winners here have accrued.

"He withdrew after round one on debut in 2017 and he missed the cut here 12 months later so I've reluctantly moved on to the man sitting at number 25 in the Official World Rankings - Brian Harman.

"Making a case for Harman isn't too difficult given he currently trades at a whopping 200.00199/1. He sat second after rounds one and two of the 2021 US Masters before fading to finish 12th, he has a top-10 finish at another course that correlates nicely - Quail Hollow - and he even has a bit of form here.

"Harman finished third here behind US Masters winners Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson back in 2014. His form has dipped a bit since he finished second in back-to-back events in November but that's most definitely factored in to his price."

Steve's bet: Back Brian Harman @ 200.00199/1

The Genesis Invitational First-Round Leader Tips: Back Bradley

Dave Tindall says: "Keegan Bradley has had an excellent season so far and heads to Riviera ranked 3rd in the FedEx Cup standings, behind only Jon Rahm and Max Homa.

"The American's lofty position is down to a win at October's ZOZO Championship and a second place in last month's Farmers Insurance Open.He's backed up those two standout performances with a couple of other good finishes, including tied 20th in Phoenix last week.

"Bradley finished off the previous campaign by setting the pace at the BMW Championship and that took his tally of career first-round leads into double figures.

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"Here at Riviera, he has a second and a fourth to his name and, although he's been patchy in recent years, his last four opening rounds at the California course read 66, 75, 68, 69."

Dave's bet: Back Keegan Bradley each-way @ 51.050/1

The Genesis Invitational: Course and current form stats

Andy Swales says: "With its tree-lined fairways and handful of subtle dog-legs, Riviera demands solid ball-striking and accurate iron play. Even though there is not a single water hazard in play, good course management is always important around this layout.

"The rough is often penal, while the course has earned a reputation for favouring right-handers who fade the ball from left-to right - or left-handers who can 'draw'...

"Tony Finau is a two-time runner-up at Riviera. The American's last 22 rounds here average 69.64. Has made a solid start to 2023, and has not finished outside the top 16 in his last six starts on the PGA Tour - which includes a victory in Texas late last year. Is the current world No 13."

Andy's Player to Watch: Tony Finau @ 20.019/1

Thailand Classic: Otaegui fancied to take to Amata Spring

Steve Rawlings says: "Nicolai Hojgaard has been backed into favouritism and I can see why. He won on paspalum at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship last year and he's been in fair form of late, but will he be straight enough around Amata? That would be my biggest reservation.

"Top-ten finishes at Paris and Valderrama put Robert MacIntyre firmly in the frame, if my course correlation theory has any legs, but 20th in Abu Dhabi is his best result of the year so far and last week's missed cut is far from encouraging...

"Otaegui hacked up at Valderrama and his straight hitting should prove a huge asset at Amata Spring.

"Since finishing runner-up in the Alfred Dunhill Championship before Christmas, the Spaniard has finished no better than 28th in four starts on the DP World Tour but he signed off the Singapore Classic with a six-under-par 66 on Sunday and he's no bigger than 28/1 on the High Street."

Steve's bet: Back Adrian Otaegui @ 38.037/1

Thailand Classic Each-Way Tips: Guido's French Thai breaker

Matt Cooper says: "We'll start with the last winner on the Albatross Course in Paris - the Italian Guido Migliozzi. His performance last September was extraordinary, completed with a final round 62 that included a remarkable full stop in the shape of a sensational approach to the final green.

"It was also the culmination of an overhaul of the largest 36-hole deficit on the DP World Tour in the 21st century (13 shots), an effort that was somewhat reliant on Rasmus Hojgaard's poor performance over the final two rounds but still needed something special from the eventual champion.

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"Since then his best golf has been a little hard to come by - a flying start at the Nedbank Challenge that wasn't maintained, a solid showing in the Tour Championship, a sparkling effort in the Hero Cup, a bright 54 holes followed by a poor final round in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.

"Two missed cuts have followed yet he has, however, always tended to be a golfer who can produce the goods from nowhere so I'm not massively concerned."

Matt's bet: Back Guido Migliozzi 1pt each-way @ 51.050/1

Thailand Classic: Course and current form stats

Andy Swales says: "The course is almost futuristic in design, with golfers having to take a short boat trip to reach Amata's 17th hole island green. Opened in 2005, water is a constant companion at Amata Spring coming into play on 11 holes.

"Kiradech Aphibarnrat is not playing anywhere near the standard he did a few years ago but home advantage should count for something.

"Four times between 2011 and 2015, the 33-year-old posted top-20 finishes in the Thailand Championship. He tied-49th in last week's Singapore Classic."

Andy's Player to Watch: Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ 50.049/1

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