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Laurie Canter is a good fit for the Earth bill
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Japanese star Keita Nakajima can revive last year's form
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Kristoffer Reitan can hit his way into contention
In its hosting of 16 DP World Tour Championships, the Earth Course at Jumeirah in Dubai has done an excellent job of identifying quality.
The Greg Norman-designed layout was deemed somewhat terrifying in the first event there back in 2009 given its length (over 7,700 yards) and, as Steve Rawlings noted in his preview, it has become a little trickier when fairways are missed but the short cut areas are not narrow so the big hitters have been able to open their arms.
It's not surprising then that the 10 players to have won there have all been, at some stage of their career and/or at their best, performers who gain an advantage over the field from the tee.
Discussing the challenge Rory McIlroy (whose record book includes ten top six finishes from 14 starts including three wins) says: "There are four par-5s that I can take advantage of and a couple of shorter par-4s that I can get it close to."
But beyond that is another subtle advantage for the longer hitters: "There are a lot of fairway bunkers that are in the middle of the fairway at about 300 yards," he added,
That, of course, immediately provides a problem to the average hitter who needs to be either accurate to miss those traps or take something off their drive, thus exaggerating the disadvantage compared to the bigger hitters who just fly those hazards.
Matthew Fitzpatrick and Danny Willett won at three figures but most often it has been short-priced favourites who have prevailed. However, there have been many long-priced near-misses and the column identified third-placed Antoine Rozner last year at 60/161.00 and Nicolai Hojgaard when he was fourth in 2021 at 70/171.00.
Main Best: Laurie Canter 1pt each-way @ 66/1
The Englishman has a solid record in this event, finishing fifth on debut in 2020, T27th in 2021 and T14th last year.
In each of those efforts he ranked top 10 for Strokes Gained Off the Tee and also SG Approach.
The former is a strength of his: he ranks 11th this season and was fifth in 2024.
It's also an element of the game that has, pardon the pun, driven his best performances: he was excellent off the tee when winning the European Open at Green Eagle, ranked top in the category when third in this year's Dubai Desert Classic at Emirates, third in it when winning the Bahrain Championship shortly after, and second when an unlucky second in the South African Open at Durban.
He also ranked fourth with the driver when second in the Genesis Championship in Korea two starts ago and was third when T23rd last week in Abu Dhabi.
He needs a warm putter week ideally, of course, and the fact he's made gains on the field with the flat stick in the last fortnight seals the deal.
Back Laurie Canter
Next Bet: Keita Nakajima 1pt each-way @ 50/1
The Japanese star was an impressive championship debutant 12 months carding rounds of 69-69-70-71 to end all four rounds in the top 10 and finish in a share of seventh.
He fits the bill of a fine driver of the ball, ranking 22nd this season in Strokes Gained Off the Tee.
He's also played well at courses where a strong tee game is important - when fourth in the Ras al Khaimah Championship at Al Hamra, sixth at Green Eagles in the European Open, when winning and being runner-up at the DLF Club in the Indian Open, and also when second in the Singapore Classic at Laguna.
That good putting at DLF, as in this event last week, came on Bermuda grass greens and he was at it again a few weeks ago when finishing second in the India Championship at Delhi GC.
He was also T21st at Emirates GC in this year's Dubai Desert Classic on Bermuda and last week he had a warm putter when T12th in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.
Back Keita Nakajima
Final Bet: Kristoffer Reitan 1pt each-way @ 40/1
Adrien Saddier was tempting. The Frenchman has maybe not been as consistent as other bolters in this 2025 season, but his highs have been every bit as impressive and he's a big price at 90/191.00. The worry is that he doesn't quite have the necessary firepower.
Instead, we'll complete the team with the Norwegian Kristoffer Reitan who ranks eighth in Strokes Gained Off the Tee in what has been a remarkable breakthrough season for him.
Twelve months ago he'd just won the Challenge Tour Grand Final but few would have pencilled him in for one of the 10 PGA Tour cards on offer this campaign. Nor would they have with five months of the season gone.
Then it all changed, starting with second in the Hainan Classic and within weeks he'd thrashed a final round 62 to win the Soudal Open and a Sunday 60 to add another second in the Austrian Alpine Open.
I spoke to him after that latter round and was impressed with his desire to keep the foot to the floor. He knew there was a threat of thinking he could relax while he actually wanted to prove he deserved to be at this level of the sport.
As impressive as the attitude was, his ability to back it up is even better: five top six finishes have followed in addition to lucrative, and high quality, top 30s in the PGA Tour co-sanctioned Scottish Open and Open.
He first had a crack at the DP World Tour in 2019 and his second best effort was at the 7,632 yard long Royal Dar es Salam, and his only other test this year above 7,500 yards (other than Hainan) was when T14 at Doha in the Qatar Masters.
Having driver in hand might suit him.
Back Kristoffer Reitan