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Englishman Matt Wallace has current and course form
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Ewen Ferguson can improve on last year's good showing
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Antoine Rozner was superb last week after a slow start
The Earth Course at Jumeirah Estates in Dubai hosts the DP World Tour Championship, the circuit's end-of-season finale, for a 16th time this week and it has proved to be a test that sorts the wheat from the chaff with last year's champion Nicolai Hojgaard becoming the 15th winner who was good enough to have represented Europe in the Ryder Cup.
If that provides a somewhat daunting prospect for the each way column - which necessarily has to look beyond the top of the market - then there is hope in the fact that Alexander Bjork, Laurie Canter, Mike Lorenzo Vera, Dean Burmester, Adrian Otaegui and Dylan Frittelli have all placed having started the week with a three-figure starting price - and last year Thriston Lawrence and Matthieu Pavon added their names to that list.
The column is not going to go quite that far down the pecking order for a couple of the selections and the lead pick is from a player on the fringes of the top of the market.
This selection came down to a choice between Adam Scott and Matt Wallace.
The Scott/Wallace dilemma, you could call it, which sounds like some sort of Gothic plot with an Edinburgh setting.
The Aussie won the 2010 Texas Open on a Greg Norman design at TPC San Antonio and a few months before that made his only previous visit to this event finishing seventh.
He closed last week's Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship with a fine round of 65 and is a double winner at Doha, a test which tallies nicely with this one.
Alas, the compiler likes him too and his price feels a touch short.
It's also possible that Wallace is the more likely of the pair to win rather than just contend.
He crossed the winning line in Crans this August a week after impressing at The Belfry and he was excellent last week when carding a 65 in round two and a 63 in the final round to finish third in Abu Dhabi.
This time last year he was the 54-hole leader of this championship following a sensational third round of 60 that included the most number of birdies posted in any DP World Tour round and the most consecutive par breakers, too. "An amazing day," he said afterwards. "Played great."
He added a 69 on Sunday to finish second. He was also the halfway leader on his course debut in 2018 when he again ended the week in second.
He's also been second on Jumeirah's Fire Course (in 2020) which is another Norman creation and his fondness for Norman layouts goes further. He was the 54-hole co-leader at TPC San Antonio when third in 2021 and the joint 36-hole leader at Vidanta Villarta in this year's Mexico Open.
He's high on confidence, playing superbly and can hopefully (and finally) end the fourth round on top spot rather than, as so often, rounds two and three.
Back Matt Wallace each way
The Scot was ninth in this event last year on his second visit but it was a promising effort which saw him card 67 on Friday and 64 on Saturday to sit just three shots back of the 54-hole lead.
Moreover, he was sensational with his irons, topping the field rankings for Strokes Gained Approach.
That aspect of his game was firing again last week when he ranked fifth as he recorded T23rd in Abu Dhabi.
He's another winner this year (at the BMW International Open) and it's also a tick that he's a winner at Doha in the Qatar Masters.
Henrik Stenson, Alvaro Quiros and Robert Karlsson have completed the Doha-Earth Course double while Lee Westwood, Paul Lawrie, Branden Grace and Rafa Cabrera Bello have come very close.
Back Ewen Ferguson each way
The Frenchman Antoine Rozner is playing some scintillating golf at the moment and it is built around a sensational ability to fire his approaches at the flag.
He ranks second in Strokes Gained Approaches for the season and that helped him to fourth in the Genesis Championship two starts ago.
His first round last week was a poor 73 that left him T67th in the small field but he card 65-67-63 thereafter to blitz his way to a share of sixth and for the first time in ages his putter was warm as well as his irons.
He took an instant liking to Norman's Fire Course at Jumeirah, winning the Dubai Championship on his first start there in 2020 and finishing fifth on defence of the title a year later.
He's also been T10th at Norman's Al Mouj in the Oman Open and fifth at his Infinitum Lakes Course in the ISPS Handa Championship in Spain.
The Earth Course test was a bit of a mystery to him on early visits with his first three attempts seeing him fail to break the top 30.
But he putted well last year and also logged comfortably his best Approach and Tee to Green stats when T11th. Moreover, he was just one shot off the first round lead and was second (and two back) after 36 holes.
He also has generally good form in the Middle East. In addition to all that mentioned above, he has a win at Education City, has been sixth at Doha, has a top 20 at Abu Dhabi, another in Bahrain and two at Emirates.
Back Antoine Rozner each way
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