DP World Tour Championship: Trust Tyrrell to contend again

• Par five scoring should be key

• Links lovers thrive

• Read my Bermuda Championship preview here

---

Tournament History

A week before the 2025 DP World Tour schedule kicks off with the Australian PGA Championship - the 2024 season draws to a close with the now traditional curtain closer - the DP World Tour Championship.

First staged 15 years ago, when the DP World Tour replicated the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup with its own version called the Race to Dubai.

The DP World Tour Championship is the second Playoff event after last week's Abu Dhabi Championship and it's the fifth and final event of the Rolex Series.

It's a limited field event for the top-50 available in the standings and it usually determines who wins the Race to Dubai but Rory McIlroy had already wrapped it up before the off last year and he's highly unlikely to lose it this time around.

Thriston Lawrence is the only man capable of catching him but in order to do so he needs to win this week and hope that Rory finishes worse than 11th.

---

Venue

The Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, UAE

---

Course Details

Par 72, 7,706 yards
Stroke index in 2023 - 69.76

The Greg Norman designed Earth Course has been the event's venue since its inception. It's a long typical desert track with generous fairways and 99 bunkers.

The Tifeagle Bermuda grass greens are large and undulating, with a lot of run-off areas, and they're usually set to run at 12 on the stimpmeter. Water is in-play on the 6th, the 14th and last three holes.

It's a stunning finish that has the potential to produce much drama. The par three 17^th has an island green and the par five 18th, with water in play twice if you go for the green and three times if you lay-up, is an intriguing hole, where scores can vary greatly. It was the second easiest hole on the course 12 months ago - averaging 4.6.

As Matt Wallace demonstrated in round three 12 months ago, although a long track, it's a very scorable one in benign conditions and a round in the 50s can't be ruled out.

WHAT HAVE WE JUST SEEN! @mattsjwallace birdies EVERY hole on the back nine and signs for a third round 60!#DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/dEsDUQgJra

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 18, 2023

---

Weather Forecast

---

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 7:00 on Thursday

---

Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2023 - Nicolai Hojgaard -21 34.033/1
2022 - Jon Rahm -20 6.25/1
2021 - Collin Morikawa -17 10.09/1
2020 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -15 22.021/1
2019 - Jon Rahm -19 8.07/1
2018 - Danny Willett -18 150.0149/1
2017 - Jon Rahm -19 15.014/1
2016 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -17 110.0109/1

---

What Will it Take to Win the DP World Tour Championship?

The Earth Course is long, and the fairways are generous so it's no surprise to see the long hitters prosper.

Last year's winner, Nicolai Hojgaard, ranked first for Driving Distance and in all the years we've been coming here, 16^th is the worst any winner has ranked for DD.

Length has always been key but driving accuracy wasn't an essential prerequisite in the early days, however, over time, finding fairways has started to be far more important as the course has matured so you can't just indiscriminately bash it miles off the tee.

As many as seven of the 15 winners to date have ranked inside the top-four for Greens In Regulation but it can't be described as a really key stat given Jon Rahm only ranked 26^th for GIR on the first occasion he won here, Matthew Fitzpatrick ranked 21^st in 2016, Rory McIlroy only ranked 47^th in 2012 and Hojgaard ranked 28^th last year.

The 2021 winner, Collin Morikawa, only ranked 15th for Putting Average and that was an unusually high ranking.

The first seven home last year ranked second, fourth, 10^th, 13^th, third, sixth and 14^th and the first four home two years ago ranked first, fourth, seventh and second. And the six winners before Morika had ranked fifth, first, first, third, second and fourth.

This a long track and playing the par fives well is key. Only five players scored better than Hojgaard on the long holes last year, Tyrrell Hatton, who finished tied second, and McIlroy in fourth, were the only two players in the field to better Rahm on the par fives two years ago and Morikawa ranked second on the par fives 12 months earlier.

---

Is There an Angle In?

Anyone that plays desert golf well must be respected.

Hojgaard won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship in 2022 and the three-time winner, Jon Rahm, has form in the States in the desert. His first high finish on the PGA Tour was at the Phoenix Open way back in 2015 and he's a two-time winner of the Desert Classic in the Californian desert but the two events to really concentrate on are two the Spaniard is yet to play - the Dubai Desert Classic and the Qatar Masters.

As many as four of the ten players to have won this event in its short history - Henrik Stenson (twice), McIlroy (twice), Danny Willett and Alvaro Quiros - have all won the Dubai Desert Classic.

The 2012 DDC winner, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, traded at just 1.4840/85 in this event ten years ago before throwing the tournament away at the 16th hole, and the English duo, Andy Sullivan and Matt Wallace, have finished runner-up in both events.

In addition to winning this title, Robert Karlsson, Stenson and Quiros have also won in Qatar, and the inaugural winner, Lee Westwood, should arguably have won at all three venues. Westwood has been in contention numerous times in Qatar, and he's twice finished runner-up at the DDC. The same can be said of Cabrera-Bello, who was also runner-up in Qatar seven years ago.

And finally, given Rahm has won the event three times, Matthew Fitzpatrick was the fourth man to win the DP World Tour Championship twice in a span of just nine years when he won four years ago and the two-time winner, Rory McIlroy, traded at odds-on again in 2021, it's fair to say course form stands up well.

---

Links Lovers Thrive

We've now had 15 renewals of the DP World Tour Championship and three Open champions have won five editions (Morikawa, McIlroy x2 and Henrik Stensonx2) with two other Open winners, Shane Lowry and Paul Lawrie, finishing second.

Last year's Alfred Dunhill Link Championship winner, Fitzpatrick, is a two-time champ and the 2021 ADLC winner, Danny Willett, won the event in 2018.

Rahm, who's won the Irish Open on a links layout twice, has won the event three times so links form really does come to the fore.

---

Is There an Identikit Winner?

Danny Willett had started to show some glimpses of a resurgence before he won here six years ago. He'd finished inside the top-eight at both the Italian and Irish Opens and he'd sat second at halfway before finishing seventh in his penultimate start, in the Turkish Airlines Open, but he went off at around 150.0149/1.

He was the first really big outsider to win, the second to be matched at a triple-figure price, the first to be described as largely out of form and he was just the second winner in ten years not to have won an event somewhere earlier in the season.

Fitzpatrick hadn't won for two years when he claimed the title for a second time in 2020 and last year's champ, Hojgaard, and Stenson, in 2014, are the only others to win here without lifting a trophy earlier in the season.

All the winners have been top-class players and Fitzpatrick, in 2016, and Willett two years later, are the only two to be matched at a triple-figure price before the off.

Hogaard, who was a 33/134.00 chance 12 months ago and the 2011 winner, Alvaro Quiros, who was matched at odds of 44.043/1, are the only other remotely big priced winners of the event.

Rahm was very well backed two years ago, going off at around 5/16.00 and having won the Open Championship a few months earlier, Morikawa was a well-fancied 9/1 chance in 2021.

Rahm was generally an 8.07/1 shot in 2019 and Rory and Stenson, were trading at single-figure prices when they won on both occasions, so the tournament has a history of going to the fancied players.

Year after year the cream rises to the top and the 11 renewals prior to last year's edition had all been won by a major champion.

---

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Nicolai Hojgaard - tied fifth, trailing by three 17.016/1
2022 - Jon Rahm - led by one 2.427/5
2021 - Collin Morikawa - tied fifth, trailing by four 10.09/1
2020 - Matthew Fitzpatrick - tied for the lead 5.24/1
2019 - Jon Rahm - tied for the lead 2.0621/20
2018 - Danny Willett - tied for the lead 5.69/2
2017 - Jon Rahm - tied second - trailing by one 4.77/2
2016 - Matthew Fitzpatrick - tied second - trailing by one 6.86/1

---

In-Play Tactics

Rahm sat tied for 14^th and five of off the lead after he'd shot a two-under-par 70 in round one two years ago and that's the only time the winner has begun the event with a round in the 70s.

Every other winner has started with a round in the 60s and this is most certainly a frontrunner's track.

Hojgaard led after rounds one and two 12 months ago, and the first seven winners, and 12 of the 15 to date, all opened-up with a round of 68 or better. And they were all inside the top-six places after day one.

Rahm was bang there at halfway following a six-under-par 66 on Friday which saw him sit tied for fifth, trailing by four, and 12 months earlier, Morikawa had sat sixth and two off the lead after 36 holes. The three winners before Morikawa had sat second at halfway and four of the first five winners here were in front after 36 holes.

Robert Karlsson, who beat Ian Poulter in a play-off back in 2010, is the only winner not to be sitting inside the top-eight at halfway and up until 2021, when Morikawa won having trailed by three in a tie for fifth, he was the only winner not to be sitting first or second with a round to go but bizarrely, he's still the only first round leader to go on to win. He'd dropped back into a tie for 12^th after a second round 75 before rallying with back-to-back 67s over the weekend to catch Poulter.

Hojgaard did something similar last year, finishing his third round poorly to drop three off the lead in a tie for fifth, having led by two at halfway. He bounced back brilliantly in round four to win by two, birdying 13, 14, 15, 16 and 17 to assume command after Tommy Fleetwood had been matched at as low as 1.341/3.

There's only been 15 previous editions, but ten winners have been leading or tied for the lead with a round to go.

If you're betting in-running, beware the tricky finish where we've witnessed drama aplenty over the years with all four finishing holes determining the outcome of the event at various times.

The 16th is a fairly difficult par four with strategically placed fairway bunkers that really caught out Rafa Cabrera-Bello ten years ago and the par three 17th is also tough, but it was the short par four 15^th that dramatically changed the landscape of the 2021 edition when Rory McIlroy caught an awful break...

Some times you can be too accurate...

An awful break for @McIlroyRory on 15.#DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/nGHdWSrprD

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 21, 2021

Tyrrell Hatton was matched at odds-on on five separate occasions during round four in 2016 and he hit a low of 1.132/15 when he made a miraculous par save at the 17^th hole but with the event at his mercy, he drove in to the water on the 18^th and Fitzpatrick made birdie there to pip him by one.

---

Market Leaders

A few shrewd judges have made a strong case for backing the favourite, Rory McIlroy, each-way at around 9/25.50. That makes a lot of sense given his current form figures read 2-2-25-3 and his course form numbers read an impressive 3-5-11-1-5-2-1-9-20-4-6-4-22.

Other than triple-bogeying the par three 17^th on Saturday, and making a mess of the par five seventh on Sunday, Rory played superbly in Abu Dhabi last week and it's hard to see him not contending.

A top 11 finish will see him crowned the Race to Dubai winner, regardless of how well the only man who can catch him, Triston Lawrence, fares. But that could be a slight negative.

McIlroy had the Race to Dubai wrapped up before the off last year and was never in contention after a slow start.

If Lawrence fails to shine from the get-go, the pressure will be off early on and there's a slight chance he won't be going all out to win the title, although I must stress, that's highly unlikely.

Another couple of ways to play the world number three is to back him before the off with a view to laying him in-running at much lower odds. Or just back him in the First Round Leader market.

He's led here a couple of times after the opening round and he's been inside the top six places after the opening 18 seven times.

An argument for playing him on the Exchange at bigger than 12/113.00 to be leading after round one can easily be made and it's a shame he's been (understandably) cut from 11/112.00 to 9/110.00 on the Sportsbook, although that's still a fair price given he's finished inside the top-five places after round one on six of the 13 occasions he's played here.

Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood are the next two in the betting and I'm in absolutely no rush to side with the latter.

He has a propensity for disappointing in-the-mix, as he did again last week, but he does have improving course form figures reading 37-12-53-9-21-16-2-10-27-5-2.

---

Selections

Having won his third Alfred Dunhill Links title in his penultimate start, and having finished second in Abu Dhabi last week, where he traded at 2.35/4 before Paul Waring birdied the last two holes to win, I'm more than happy to take a chance on Tyrrell Hatton at bigger than 7/18.00.

With course form numbers reading 6-13-2-8-22-46-8-16-2-11, he's another that clearly likes it here and it's hard to envisage him not contending.

I've got at least one longshot for the Find Me a 100 Winner column but for now my only other pick is the aforementioned Thriston Lawrence.

The South African will feel all sorts of pressure if Rory bombs but that looks unlikely and, if we head into Sunday with both men in-the-mix, Lawrence will feel like he has a free hit at the title with the prospect of being crowned the Race to Dubai winner gone.

Lawrence was fifth last year on only his second visit, having finished only 41^st on debut in 2022, and that was despite a disappointing 70 in round three.

He's an exceptional links exponent, as demonstrated at the Open in July when he finished fourth, so it's not a surprise that he's shown an aptitude for the layout and after his sixth-place finish in Abu Dhabi on Sunday, he's not being shown enough respect in the market at almost 40/141.00.

---

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

---

Now read my Bermuda Championship preview here.

---