Bermuda Championship: 89/1 Higgo the sole selection so far

• Scrambling skills and a hot putter required

• Great event for veterans and outsiders

• Read my DP World Tour Championship preview here

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Tournament History

This is the sixth edition of the Bermuda Championship - an event that began life as an opposite field event when the WGC HSBC Champions in China was still on the schedule.

The Bermuda Championship is the sixth of seven events on the FedEx Cup Fall Series so there's plenty at stake for those bobbing around the 125 mark on the standings, looking to keep their playing privileges for next season.

There's also an incentive to finish between 51^st and 60^th at the end of the series as that earns you a spot into two Signature Events next year - the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational.

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Venue

Port Royal Golf Course, Southampton, Bermuda

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Course Details

Par 71, 6828 yards
Scoring Average in 2023 68.74

Port Royal is a short, wind exposed Robert Trent Jones Sr. designed course, with a number of holes perched right on the edge of the Atlantic Ocean.

Port Royal's signature hole, the 235-yard par three 16^th, with nothing but the Atlantic Ocean between the tee and the pin, is widely regarded as one of the greatest par threes in golf but it's a tough one. It was the second hardest on the course in 2022 but it's been the toughest on the track for three of the last four renewals.

The Bermuda/Zoysia mixed rough is only two inches high but it's still tricky to navigate from and the average sized Bermuda greens only run at around 10 on the stimpmeter because of the almost ever-present wind.

In addition to the first five editions of this event, Port Royal was also the host course for the now defunct Grand Slam of Golf for six years from 2009. The tournament, which was eventually ditched in 2014, was staged to showcase the four major winners over two rounds. Here are the six winners at Port Royal.

2009 - Lucas Glover - 11
2010 - Ernie Els -5
2011 - Keegan Bradley -4
2012 - Padraig Harrington -9
2013 - Adam Scott -8
2014 - Martin Kaymer -6

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 18:00 on Thursday

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First five Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2019 - Brendon Todd -24 150.0149/1
2020 - Brian Gay -15 330.0329/1 (playoff)
2021 - Lucas Herbert -15 65.064/1
2022 - Seamus Power -19 27.026/1
2023 - Camilo Villegas -24 160.0159/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Bermuda Championship?

The driving stats are limited and according to Rob Bolton in 2022, who writes for the PGA Tour website, only two holes in opposite directions are used to measure distance off the tee here - the par five second and the par four 12^th.

Looking back, both the first two winners ranked fourth for Driving Accuracy and when Brendon Todd won the inaugural edition, six of the top ten ranked inside the top ten for Driving Accuracy.

The 2020 winner, Brian Gay, was one of four players inside the top ten to rank inside the top ten for DA three years ago but that stat hasn't been so key over the last three years.

The 2021 winner, Lucas Herbert, ranked as high as seventh for Driving Distance but neither of the two driving metrics are worth worrying about.

The top six last year ranked 73^rd, 55^th,26^th, 18^th second, and 71^st for DD and 17^th, 28^th, 33^rd, 58^th, 24^th, and 43^rd for DA.

Starting in 2019, the five winners to date have ranked 10^th, 15^th, 58^th, ninth and first for Greens in Regulation, fourth, 16^th 14^th, 46^th and 16^th for Scrambling, and third, sixth, 10^th, third, and 11^th for Putting Average.

The 2022 winner, Seamus Power, is something of an anomaly as he only ranked 46^th for Scrambling but Detry, in second, ranked first so a great short game and a hot putter have been the keys to success here so far.

There was a difference of nine strokes between the first winning score and the next two and that was all down to the strength of the wind.

The wind gusted up to 40mph during round one in 2021 and Matt Fitzpatrick described the conditions as "Brutal. The hardest wind I've ever played in." And Scotland's Russell Knox concurred, saying, "I've never experienced wind that strong."

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Correlating Courses to Consider

There are a number of events staged at courses similar to Port Royal. The Sony Open, the RBC Heritage and the RSM Classic are all held on coastal, wind-affected courses and the host venues, Waialae Country Club, Harbour Town Golf Links and Sea Island Resort are all Bermuda.

Gay certainly boosted the links between Port Royal and those three tracks. He has three top-tens at Waialae (home of the Sony), he won the RBC at Harbour Town by a record ten strokes in 2009, and he has a fourth and a third in the RSM Classic at Sea Island.

Last year's winner, Camilo Vilegas, has a poor record in the Sony but he was beaten in a playoff at the RSM Classic and he has three top-tens at Harbour Town.

Although the course used is entirely laid to paspalum and not Bermuda, the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship in the Dominican Republic is a tournament to consider as well.

That too is staged on a windy, exposed, coastal layout away from the United States but it's another overseas tournament, last week's World Wide Technology Championship that's surely the best guide given the first two winners of this event have also won at the WWTC's former host course - El Camaleon Golf Club - and Vilegas had finished second in Mexico at the new track - El Cardonal Golf Course - the week before he won.

Whether the new venue holds up as a great guide is debatable but the first 16 editions were staged at El Camaleon Golf Club and form there has held up well here.

Brian Gay won at El Camaleon Golf Club in 2008 and Brendon Todd won there in 2019, two weeks after he'd won here.

The link was boosted again in 2021 when Danny Lee finished second here, as he was third at El Camaleon in 2014, second in 2018, and seventh in 2022. And Power's victory boosted the links with all the aforementioned tracks very well too.

He was third in the Sony Open on his only appearance and sixth at Harbour Town on his sole visit. He finished fourth and fifth in the RSM Classic on the only two times he's played in that event and on the two occasions he's played at the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship, he's finished seventh and fifth.

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Great Event for the Veterans and Outsiders

Although Lucas Herbert was only 25 when he won here, concentrating on the older pros looks like the way to go here.

Todd was 34 when he won the inaugural event, Gay won in 2020 at the age of 48, Power was 35 two years ago, and Villegas was 41 when he took the title last year.

Going into the fourth round last year, three of the top-five were in their 40s and Stewart Cink, who eventually finished seventh, was in his 50s so this is clearly a venue that suits the veteran contingent.

The shortness of the course certainly helps the older players but another reason why they've prospered over the years is the conditions. You can't beat experience when the wind starts howling.

Power was fairly well fancied but three of the five previous winners have gone off at a huge price so it's been a great event for longshots.

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Could There be a Draw Bias Again?

It's worth keeping a close eye on the forecast this week as one side of the draw could be advantaged considerably.

The PM-AM starters scored only marginally better than the AM-PM starters in 2020 (0.66 strokes), but the differential has been more acute over the last three years, with the late starters on day one getting the better of it over the first two rounds.

The latter starters on day one enjoyed an advantage of 1.54 strokes over the first two days last year and 1.07 strokes in 2022 and the afternoon starters on Thursday in 2021 averaged 2.88 strokes less than the day one early starters over the first two days.

And back in 2019. the AM-PM side of the draw averaged 2.76 strokes better than those that began the event on Thursday afternoon.

Villegas won from the wrong side of the draw last year but it's certainly something to consider.

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Bubble Boys can Contend Again

Despite his high finish in Mexico the week before, Villegas was still languishing in 147^th place in the FedEx Cup standings before the off last year and the third and fourth placed finishers, Matti Schmid and Carl Yuan, were sitting 148^th and 134^th in the standings prior to the off.

With only next week's RSM Classic to play, those outside the top 125 in the standings desperately need to make a move to save their cards and as last year's result highlights perfectly, it's highly likely that some will rise to the challenge.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2019 - Brendon Todd - solo second, trailing by two 6.611/2
2020 - Brian Gay - tied fifth, trailing by three 27.026/1
2021 - Lucas Herbert - solo third, trailing by four 8.07/1
2022 - Seamus Power - tied for the lead 2.466/4
2023 - Camilo Villegas - solo second, trailing by one 6.05/1

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In-Play Tactics

Windy conditions often result in changeable leaderboards and the first three winners, as well as last year's winner, Villegas, all started slowly.

Villegas sat tied for 33^rd and six back, Herbert sat tied for 26^th and five off the lead after day one in 2021, Todd trailed by six in a tie for 25^th after round one in the inaugural edition, before a 63 in round two saw him tied for the lead at halfway, and Gay came from even further back in 2020.

Matched in-running at a high of 840.0839/1, Gay trailed by seven in a tie for 64^th after the opening round and he was still four adrift and tied for 12^th at halfway.

Villegas shot 63 on Friday to sit fifth and three back at halfway and he trailed by a stroke through 54 holes. Power sat tied for 16^th and only two back at halfway in 2022 and he was only two adrift at halfway and tied for the lead through 54 holes but we still witnessed a bit of in-play drama when the man he was tied with through three rounds, Ben Griffin, was matched at just 1.364/11 when he led by two with seven to play but the wheels fell off after that.

Having hit the front, Griffin bogeyed the next four holes before double-bogeying the tough par three 16^th!

Vilegas assumed command fairly early on in round four last year but the runner-up, Alex Noren, was still matched at a low of 1.84/5 in-running.

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Garrick fits the mould

It's a wide-open market but none of the market leaders make any appeal.

The 2022 winner, Seamus Power, narrowly heads the market over two players still in search of their first victories - Maverick McNealy and Ben Griffin - and all three have been a bit flaky in-contention so I'm more than happy to swerve them.

This has been a great event for outsiders so I'll have at least three longshots for the Find Me a 100 Winner column later today or tomorrow morning and it should have been four.

Matched at as high as 140.0139/1 when the market first opened, Garrick Higgo, was first on the list after last week's sixth-place finish in Mexico but I'm far from the only one to fancy the South African's chances and high double-figures is the best we can get now.

Sitting at number 138 in the FedEx Cup standings, Higgo needs a good week to secure his playing privileges and there are plenty of reasons to think he'll have one.

He won three events in five starts back in 2021 (two on the DP World Tour and one the PGA Tour) so when he gets hot, he can stay hot.

This is his third appearance here and although he's only finished 34^th and 29^th previously, on both occasions he hinted at really taking to place.

Higgo sat fourth after his opening round on debut in 2021, when he shot 65 in round three, and he finished the event with a 64 to climb 31 places 12 months later.

He was too big when the market first opened but he's still a fair price now given how well he putted last week in Mexico.

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Now read my DP World Tour Championship preview here.

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