Find Me a 100 Winner: Hopes high again for Hill

Golfer Calum Hill
Scotland's Calum Hill, fancied to take to Wentworth

With no PGA Tour action, Steve's attention is solely focused on the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth where outsiders have fared quite well...

"With current form, course form and two strong examples of correlating course form, Paratore looks a straightforward selection and I’m surprised to see him trading at north of 300.0299/1."

As highlighted in the preview, three of the last four winners of the BMW PGA Championship have been well-fancied, going off at around 22.021/1 on the exchange, but historically this has been a great event for outsiders so I've picked out two to go to war with, starting with the recent Cazoo Classic winner, Calum Hill.

Hopes high again for Hill

Scotland's Calum Hill is playing in the BMW PGA Championship for the first time this week and that can't possibly be described as anything but a negative, but he looks just the type to take to Surrey's finest.

As highlighted in the preview, Scrambling has been a crucial stat since the course was reworked and Hill is very adept at getting up-and-down to save par. He ranks inside the top-20 for Scrambling most weeks and he ranked number one last month when winning the Cazoo Classic at the London Club.

Hill appears to enjoy a trip south of the border too as that was his third top-ten in-a-row in England and he's ticked over nicely enough since his victory in Kent, finishing seventh at the Omega European Masters (an event that appears to correlate very nicely) and 34th at the Italian Open last week.

His performance in Rome was very in-and-out, with rounds of 75-65-75-66. He made too many mistakes last week so he needs to concentrate better here but he birdied half the holes he played on Sunday and he's ranked fourth for Putting Average in each of the last two weeks so I was a little surprised to see him trading at a triple figure price.

Back 2 u Calum Hill @ 110.0109/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

English options to consider for another home win

There are some very good players trading at triple-figure odds and given seven different Englishman have won eight of the last 15 renewals, I was very tempted by last year's third, Andy Sullivan, and the 2019 winner, Danny Willett, as well as one of last week's picks, James Morrison, who led by four here at halfway back in 2012 before an 81 on Saturday completely derailed him.

Willett wins at Wentworth.jpg

I was all for giving Morrison another go at 300.0299/1 plus but there's been money for him over the last couple of days and I'm in no rush to side with him at a similar price to one he was trading at last week when missing the cut.

The prolific American, John Catlin, is an interesting runner too given his scrambling looked back on point when finishing 24th in Italy last week (ranked fourth) but after much deliberation I'm going to put up just one more - the 24-year-old Italian, Renato Paratore...

Paratore a perfect fit for Wentworth

With current form, course form and two strong examples of correlating course form, Paratore looks a straightforward selection and I'm surprised to see him trading at north of 300.0299/1.

As highlighted in the preview Crans correlates very nicely with Wentworth and Paratore was one of those in-contention to win there two weeks ago before he eventually finished seventh. And that's the same position he occupied here in this event last year, having sat tied for 69th after round one! so we already know the track suits him.

The young Italian has two European Tour wins to his name already, and both are pointers to this week.

In addition to winning the British Masters in England in impressive fashion last year, he got off the mark on the European Tour back in 2017 when winning the Nordea Masters at the Barsebäck Golf & Country Club- a partially tree-lined track in Sweden where Wentworth form comes to the fore.

Barsebäck has only been used for nine stroke-play events on the European Tour but on four occasions a winner of the BMW PGA Championship finished the week in front. Colin Montgomerie (twice), Nick Faldo and Luke Donald have all won there and the 2006 winner of the Scandinavian Masters at Barsebäck, Marc Warren, finished second at Wentworth in 2013.

And if all that wasn't enough to demonstrate the course correlation - Matt Fitzpatrick, who is very well suited to Wentworth, and the 2016 BMW PGA winner, Chris Wood, were tied second behind Paratore and the 2003 shock BMW PGA winner, Ignacio Garrido, who went off at a humongous price at Wentworth, was second to Joakim Haeggman at Barsebäck way back in 1997.

Paratore couldn't be described as consistent and he missed the cut in his homeland last week after a disappointing finish on Sunday in Switzerland but given how well-suited he looks to the venue, he looks a decent each-way bet with the three places on offer in the eight-strong Top Italian market with the Sportsbook.

Back 1 u Renato Paratore @ 320.0319/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

1u each/way Renato Paratore Top Italian @ 7/1 (Sportsbook)

I'll be back on Thursday or Friday with the In-Play Blog.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

Staked: 193 units
Returned: 97.25 units
P/L: -95.75 units

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