The Punter's De-Brief: Spaun claims the spoils on Wentworth debut as Elvira suffers meltdown

---

09:30 - September 21, 2026 - In-play drama at Wentworth

60/1 Spaun claims the BMW PGA Championship as Elvira collapses

My 39/140.00 pre-event pick, Aaron Rai, was matched at as short as 2.6813/8 in-play on the Betfair Exchange when he hit the front on the back nine on Sunday at the BMW PGA Championship but he parred his way in after his seventh birdie of the day and his third in-a-row at the par three 14^th.

It was a disappointing finish given the last three holes all averaged below par and it soon became apparent that it was highly likely he'd be caught and passed.

One of the joint third round leaders, Manuel Elvira, edged past Rai with a birdie at the par five 12^th but he dropped back alongside him with a bogey at the 14^th and the pre-event 60.059/1 chance, JJ Spaun, was the next man to hit the front.

Playing in the event for the first time, and recently snubbed for this week's Presidents Cup, Spaun birdied 14, 15, 16 and 18 to post -17 but Elvira responded in style and it didn't look like Spaun's total would be quite enough.

Elvira, who was matched at just 1.330/100, rolled in a nine-footer for eagle at the 17^th hole to draw alongside the clubhouse leader and after a solid drive on the par five 72^nd hole, it looked like a playoff might be the best Spaun backers could hope for, but then the nerves kicked in.

Poor Elvira elected to lay up instead of hitting into the green, but he did it poorly, finding a fairway bunker.

Having looked highly likely to win his first DP World Tour title, the Spaniard eventually had to settle for tied second after a double-bogey seven at the last that was quite hard to watch.

Not the finish Manuel Elvira wanted but still a week that brought him his best result on Tour. #BMWPGA | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/I77xhOuBMi

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 20, 2026

Well-backed Bridgeman wins the Biltmore

As highlighted in yesterday's post, I felt the 54-hole pacesetters at the inaugural edition of the Biltmore Championship looked vulnerable and so it proved.

My pre-event fancy, JT Poston, fired an 11-under-par 60 in round four, his lowest career round, but he'd started the final round too far back to get involved, although he was far from the only man in the field to go low around the Cliffs at Walnut Cove.

Ben James, who had begun the final round trailing by seven and trading at 170.0169/1, posted a 10-under-par 61 to pass all bar one of the 10 men that had started the day in in front of him but it wasn't quite enough to catch the well-fancied pre-event 20/121.00 shot, Jacob Bridgeman.

Bridgeman, who, unlike Spaun, has been picked to represent the United States at this week's Presidents Cup, begun the final day trailing the 54-hole leader, Neal Shipley, by five, but he birdied three of his first four holes and after an eagle at the par five eighth, he never really looked like getting beat.

The 26-year-old, who won the Genesis Invitational in February, went on to equal James' 10-under-par 61 and to win by two.

---

10:40 - September 20, 2026 - Class acts looming large at the Baltimore

There's just 18 holes to play at the inaugural edition of the Biltmore Championship and after matching six-under-par 65s, Neal Shipley and Ben Kohles still sit first and second. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:30.

Neal Shipley -21 2.3411/8
Ben Kohles -20 3.02/1
Eric Cole -17 16.015/1
Ricky Castillo -17 21.020/1
Jacob Bridgeman -16 21.020/1
Max Greyserman -16 40.039/1
Jackson Koivun -15 40.039/1
Marco Penge -15 65.064/1
Haotong Li -15 150.0149/1
Seamus Power -15 180.0179/1
Ben James -14 170.0169/1
-14 and 300.0299/1 bar

Now that he's trading at less than 11/82.38, I'm regretting talking myself out of backing the leader yesterday morning at 11/43.75 and he certainly sounds in a confident mood with 18 to play.

"Just going to keep doing what I'm doing," Shipley said after his third bogey-free round in-a-row yesterday. "Keep being me and keep having fun out there. Keep that mindset of going out there, chasing birdies and trying to get it as low as possible tomorrow."

That all sounds great but given he started the week sitting in 183^rd place on the FedEx Cup standings, there's an awful lot on the line and nerves could come into play.

He's the most likely winner and as highlighted yesterday, I'm not sure his closest challenger, Kohles, is one to trust in contention, but Shipley's short enough now.

Although they both played very nicely together yesterday, there's a possibility that the front two both get jittery today and if that happens the event will be blown wide-open.

There are some seriously talented players sitting five, six and even seven back and given we've already seen a 10-under-par 61 and four 62s this week, one of those class acts closing with a super low round can't be ruled out.

The recent 3M Open winner, Jackson Koivun, is an interesting candidate from six back but the one I've chanced modestly is the Englishman, Marco Penge.

Penge is more than capable of getting on a hot birdie streak and I thought he was a fair price at 65.064/1.

---

18:25 - September 19, 2026 - Chasers chanced from off the pace

Playing together in the penultimate two-ball on Saturday afternoon, and both in search of their first victories on the DP World Tour, Manuel Elvira and Filippo Celli both birdied the 18^th hole to edge ahead of the field but with just one round to go, the BMW PGA Championship is still wide-open.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 18:15.

Manuel Elvira -13 12.011/1
Filippo Celli -13 14.527/2
JJ Spaun -12 8.415/2
Alejandro Del Rey -12 24.023/1
Johannes Veerman -12 29.028/1
Rory McIlroy -11 5.85/1
Joaquin Niemann -11 11.010/1
Adam Scott -11 14.013/1
Kristoffer Reitan -11 18.535/2
Davis Bryant -11 34.033/1
Ludvig Aberg -10 19.018/1
Robert Macintyre -10 32.031/1
Matt Wallace -10 34.033/1
Ryan Fox -10 38.037/1
Sam Bairstow -10 95.094/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -9 50.049/1
Ryan Gerard -9 50.049/1
Aaron Rai -9 60.059/1
Alex Noren -9 80.079/1
Jordan Smith -9 130.0129/1
-8 and 110.0109/1 bar

Last year's winner, Alex Noren, was tied for the lead with 18 to play and he was trading at less than 2/13.00 but being in front here is often quite a vulnerable place to be and he trailed by seven with a round to go when he won it for the first time nine years ago.

Here's a list of where the last 10 winners were sitting with 18 holes to play, along with the prices they were trading at in-between rounds.

2025 - Alex Noren - tied for the lead 2.915/8
2024 - Billy Horschel - tied second, trailing by three 5.85/1
2023 - Ryan Fox - tied fourth, trailing by three 16.015/1
2022 - Shane Lowry - tied sixth, trailing by two 11.010/1
2021 - Billy Horschel - tied third, trailing by two 7.87/1
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton - led by three 1.9620/21
2019 - Danny Willett - tied for the lead 7.06/1
2018 - Francesco Molinari - tied for the lead 3.259/4
2017 - Alex Noren T23 - trailing by seven 220.0219/1
2016 - Chris Wood T5 - trailing by three 16.531/2

Noren headed the market last year with a round to go and Tyrrell Hatton was the favourite before round four - six years ago but the favourite before the final round has been beaten in 10 of the last 12 years and we've seen some quite remarkable off-the-pace winners here over the years...

Noren may have been in front last year, but he was matched at 220.0219/1 on Sunday morning nine years ago when he sat outside the top 20 with a round to go.

That's as far off the lead as any winner has been at Wentworth through 54 holes since 1990 but he was the third winner in eight years to trail by seven strokes with a round to go.

Simon Khan sat tied for 13^th and seven back before his win in 2010 and McIlroy trailed Thomas Bjorn by seven in 2014.

Between 1990 and 2006, 12 of the 16 winners led or co-led with a round to go and Tony Johnstone, in 1992, was the only winner not to be inside the front three places through 54 holes. He sat tied for fifth and three off the lead, but it's been a completely different kettle of fish since David Howell's victory in 2006.

In addition to the three aforementioned winners from seven adrift, we've seen victories from three, four and five strokes back and we've also seen a number of players come close to snatching an unlikely win.

I backed Hatton at halfway at 120.0119/1 last year when he trailed by seven and he was matched at 3.052/1 on Sunday. And we nearly witnessed another huge comeback four years ago when Jon Rahm finished second, beaten by a stroke...

Having been a 300.0299/1 chance before the third and final round, Rahm was matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running as he played his first eight holes of round three in just one-under-par but after a birdie at the tough ninth, he flew home in 29, despite bogeying the 15^th, to post a ten-under-par 62.

In addition to Rahm, the runner-up, Rikard Karlberg, began the final day fully eight strokes adrift of the third-round leader, Scott Hend, in 2016.

Like Rahm, he too was matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running and like Rahm, he dropped a shot late on when he bogeyed the 16th hole. Both men lost by a stroke and both were matched at single-figure prices. Karlberg was matched at just 7.87/1 and Rahm hit a low of 5.24/1.

With all that in mind, I haven't given up on my two pre-event picks, Kristoffer Reitan and Aaron Rai, who trail by two and for shots respectively and my halfway pick, Ryan Fox, is still in it, trailing by three.

Given he already has history of winning here from miles back, I was happy to chance the defending champ, who trails by four and I've picked out three others at a triple-figure price.

Sitting tied for 16^th and four back, Jordan Smith is an interesting candidate. He's far from reliable in-contention but he could post a score without feeling the heat tomorrow and he's certainly capable of going low.

Viktor Hovland won the Dubai Desert Classic back in 2022 having trailed by six with 18 to play and he also won the Hero Challenge from six adrift in 2021 so I was happy to chance him at a big price and as I've just been researching next week's Open de France, I've also backed Guido Migliozzi at a massive price.

Migliozzi won at Paris National in 2022 having sat tied ninth and five adrift with 18 to play.

Trailing by five again here, he has far more traffic to pass but I couldn't resist a tiny play at 600.0599/1.

---

09:40 - September 19, 2026 - Wide open at Wentworth but Open winner, Fox, is a fair price

At the midway point of the FedEx Fall's first event, the inaugural edition of the Biltmore Championship, pre-event 180.0179/1 chance, Neal Shipley, leads by a stroke over Ben Kohles, and there's a gap of three strokes to the two men tied for third, Ricky Castillo and Max Greyserman.

I was quite tempted to play Shipley at almost 3/14.00 but after much deliberation, I've decided to leave the event alone for now.

Although a five-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, Kohles is yet to win on the PGA Tour and at 35, he may not have too many more opportunities.

He bogeyed the easy par five finishing hole to lose by a stroke after trading at long odds-on at the Byron Nelson two years ago and at 10 years his junior, Shipley may not feel the pressure as much as Kohles over the weekend.

Shipley won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2025 but on both occasions, he came from miles off the pace, trailing by four and seven strokes with 18 holes to play.

He was tied for the lead at the halfway stage of the 2025 Korn Ferry Tour Championship but finished third, beaten by three, and that's the only time he's led or been tied for the lead at this stage so it's hard to gauge how he'll cope with the lead and I'm happy to leave the event alone for now.

Over on the DP World Tour, we've reached the halfway stage of the BMW PGA Championship and Ryan Gerrard shows the way after an eagle-birdie finish to his second round.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:30.

Ryan Gerrard -12 3.412/5
Adam Scott -10 7.613/2
Filippo Celli -10 40.039/1
Arron Rai -9 10.09/1
Manual Elvira -9 60.059/1
Rory McIlroy -8 6.611/2
JJ Spaun -8 22.021/1
Ryan Fox -8 30.029/1
Nacho Elvira -8 70.069/1
Ross Fisher -8 120.0119/1
Matt Wallace -7 36.035/1
Joaquin Niemann -6 38.037/1
-6 and 50.049/1 bar

Gerrard has been impressive and two-strokes is a nice lead, but we have to go all the way back to 2009 to find the last clear 36-hole leader to kick on and win the BMW PGA Championship.

Like Gerrad, Paul Casey led by two at halfway, but this is a notoriously hard place to make the running.

Here's a list of the last 10 winners, detailing where they sat after 36 holes.

2025 - Alex Noren - sixth, trailing by three
2024 - Billy Horschel - sixth, trailing by five
2023 - Ryan Fox - 10th, trailing by three
2022 - Shane Lowry - sixth, trailing by two (event played over 54 holes)
2021 - Billy Horschel - fifth, trailing by three
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton - third, trailing by one
2019 - Danny Willett - tied for the lead
2018 - Francesco Molinari - fifth, trailing by five
2017 - Alex Noren - 23^rd, trailing by six
2016 - Chris Wood 24^th, trailing by eight

The last two winners, Alex Noren and Billy Horschel, were both winning the event for the second time and course form stands up extremely well.

The pre-event favourite, Rory McIlroy, is bidding to win the title for a second time, having won from off the pace back in 2014, but the one I like at halfway is this year's Open winner, Ryan Fox, who won here three years ago.

Fox, who plays with Rory again today for the third day in-a-row, is no bigger than 22/123.00 on the High Street so the 30.029/1 available on the Betfair Exchange is more than fair.

---

Bookmark Betting.Betfair for golf betting tips every week

---