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Khawaja a short price if opening
- Dearth of value on top bats
- Jamie Smith worth chancing as top England first-innings runscorer
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All the player win rates
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Australia v England
Thursday 25 December, 23.30
TV: Live on TNT
Bet 1: Usman Khawaja under 26.5 1st innings runs in-play 5/61.84
Usman Khawaja is the comeback king of this series. Midway through the Perth Test after England had razed Australia batting and enjoying a healthy lead, Khawaja was the target for Aussies irked by his sore back causing disaster. Public enemy No1 status incoming.
It was, in fact, a Godsend. And Khawaja was zero to unlikely hero. His injury meant Travis Head moved up to open and we all know what happened next.
Khawaja moved into the middle order when he came back in for Adelaide and scored a half-century. It means he should hold his spot regardless of what happens and few would be surprised if he announces the Test at his home ground in Sydney will be his last.
There has been significant decline in Khawaja's game, one which was exposed in the first Test and should have been again in the third when dropped on five.
There is an opportunity to bet against a batter with increasingly diminishing returns on an MCG pitch, which as discussed in the full preview, is likely to favour the bowlers. On the opening two days there could well be some nip and tuck through the air and off the pitch. Batters have struggled in Shefield Shield cricket in the last two years at least.
Sportsbook offer 5/61.84 to sell Khawaja's first-innings runs pre-toss. And while that is acceptable (he's gone under nine in the last 14 first innings), we would rather wait to check he is opening the batting. This is likely to be the trickiest time to bat.
Sportsbook should offer the same runs quote in-play as opener when he could be exposed to Jofra Archer, expert at left-handers, moving the ball across him.
Bet 2: Jamie Smith top England first-innings runscorer 7/18.00
While the narrative has, rightly, been all about England calamity it should be pointed out that both of these teams now have longstanding records of unreliability and bad value with the bat in the context of the top runscorer market.
Indeed, one could be forgiven for wondering whether there has been a series quite like it. On two-year win rates some of the numbers being returned by these 'elites' make it difficult to make judgements on the market, bar from swerving it all together.
Consider Steve Smith's pathetic rate of just 10.5% or Ben Duckett at 7.9%. There is not a single Australia batsman who wins at a rate at better than 4/15.00; Travis Head and Alex Carey being the best with both at 19%. Carey's rate means he is a fair pick at 7/18.00 but readers of these pages will know we don't like to follow the money so to speak after a strong performance in the last game.
Joe Root's poor value on this market has been noted consistently. He's at the 23% mark, steadfastly refusing to get anywhere close to a bet at the odds. Still, it is an improvement on his previous two years when he was in the teens.
The only two likely bets for England are Zak Crawley at 11/26.50 and Jamie Smith at 7/18.00. But does anyone want to be on Crawley on a seamer at the 'G. Nope. Smith, then, might be worth chancing. Perhaps those late runs at Adelaide have settled him and it could be that 40 or 50 will be enough if we're right about conditions.
Bet 3: Scott Boland top Australia first-innings bowler 11/43.75
Scott Boland has metronomic accuracy, the feelgood vibes of a return to his home ground plus seven wickets against England the last time he played against them at this venue.
He is value at 11/43.75 for top Australia bowler, particularly as Pat Cummins is ruled out. The Australia skipper is wary of risking aggravating his back injury and may not play again in the series.
Mitchell Starc is an obvious threat to the bet but he doesn't have a great record in Melbourne. In terms of strike rate and average it is his second-least potent ground.
Throughout the series don't miss our in-play day-by-day guide. For now, though, you can read about player angles and strategies here!