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England eye faith-restoring 3-2 scoreline
- Australia could sue 16th & 17th players of the series
- Potts set to make first start
- SCG pitch may still favour bowlers
- Ed has betting strategies and Betfair Exchange trade angles
- Don't miss our dedicated Ashes section HERE
Australia v England
Saturday January 3, 23.30
TV: Live on TNT
Australia v England fifth Ashes Test team news
Australia remain severely depleted. Each team change must turn England's stomach at the missed opportunity afforded them. There is no Josh Hazlewood, Pat Cummins or Nathan Lyon.
And they could use their 16th and 17th players of the series if Todd Murphy, the spinner, comes in for Jhye Richardson, who struggled in Melbourne. Cameron Green is also under significant pressure for the all-rounder's spot from Beau Webster.
Usman Khawaja has announced this will be his final Test and it wouldn't be a surprise if he produced in front of his home crowd.
Possible Australia XI: Weatherald, Head, Labuschagne, Smith, Khawaja, Webster, Carey, Neser, Starc, Boland, Murphy
England have also suffered churn. Think back to that brilliant bowling display in Perth for example. The attack has not - and probably will not - play together again. Gus Atkinson and Jofra Archer have gone home but they have at least discovered that Josh Tongue is now an automatic pick.
Tongue is likely to be joined in the XI by Matt Potts, who gets a chance because of Atkinson's hamstring strain. Shoaib Bashir has been named in the 12-man squad. Will Jacks is in posession, though, and if Bashir doesn't play here his England career is almost certainly over for the forseeable future.
Jacob Bethell has replaced Ollie Pope at No 3. He doesn't offer greater technique or greater chance of runs but does have chutzpah so the switch has worked.
Possible England XI: Crawley, Duckett, Bethell, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Jacks, Carse, Tongue, Potts
Australia v England fourth Ashes Test pitch report
Any plans to leave a significant grass covering on the Sydney surface have almost certainly been shelved after the two day game at the MCG. The groundsman at the SCG said he is confident the pitch could produce a game to last five days. This is currently a 2.9015/8 chance on the Exchange.
It is green a few days out but that will be trimmed to 6mm. Last season the length was left at 7mm and Australia-India was over in two-and-a-half days. There were only two fifties in the match and no side scored more than 200.
Still, we shouldn't expect a road. The Shield matches have trialled the new trim and less dense surfaces. The result in the last two seasons has been eight scores under 200 in five matches.
Stats and trends
- Australia have not lost in the last ten at the SCG
- There have been five draws in the last ten
- The first-innings average runs per wicket is 46.1
- The fourth-innings average runs per wicket is 32.7
Australia v England fifth Ashes Test match prediction
Australia are 1.728/11, England 3.6013/5 and the draw 7.06/1. Let's deal with the latter first, which is the shortest of the series so far because of Sydney's reputation for inclement weather.
It's hardly Manchester, though, and if we do get a flat one with the threat of a shower around, we will be keen to start getting involved in laying. For all the talk that it will last five days, if there is deterioration (and spin), neither of these batting units have shown temperment or technique to knuckle down in the face of adversity.
England do need a bowler-friendly surface to reduce the gulf. They were good value at the 'G. Had we not backed 3-2 Australia on the correct score market for the series we would probably be risking them here.
A chancey gamble for the last action of the series comes in the form of the boosted 12/113.00 that England win and hit most fours/sixes. England do boast more power hitters so it's worth a small stake.
Back england to win, hit most 4s/6s
Australia v England Fifth Ashes Test in-play bets and strategies
The first job is to place orders on Australia and England at 25% higher their current price in-play with a higher stake on Australia than England by 0.25pts. This is a strategy that has worked in three of the four games.
If that's not for you, any shift in the home price to odds-against is to be taken. England's ability to throw away strong positions is hugely reliable.
Indeed, this is a Test to go against the tide. Any sort of partnership for either team with the bat early on in their innings is an opportunity to go unders on high par lines or be cheeky and take the extreme unders option. The latter is a must in the third innings.