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Smith a solid wager for 50
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Batters will dominate if sun is out
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Root and Brook options for England top bat bets
England v Australia
Thursday 6 July, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Top Australia first-innings bat
In Headingley Tests of yore, it has been relatively simple to make wagers pay. The problem, though, is that by and large they have been in-play. Finding value pre-toss, or rather before knowing the precise overhead conditions, can be fraught with difficulty.
Fortunately we will be live tweeting in-play for @BetfairExchange, providing session updates from Ian Bell and the best wagers at the close of each day.
As discussed in the match preview, the Leeds skies give us the greatest clue as to how the match could unfold. When it is grey and overcast bowlers will feel they are in the game. When the sun is out batters are to the fore.
With so much uncertainty, then, it could be wise to rely on the most reliable factor of all. And that is Steve Smith.
In the last two years Smith has won on this market 11 times in 22, which makes him even money. The edge is slender but it is rare that one gets any sort of gift at all about one of the greats.
Smith looked in total control in that first-innings at Lord's. His head was still and his foot movement assured. He is the one batter we would have no qualms about being on for runs if conditions went against him.
For top Aussie bat in the first-innings, Smith doesn't warrant support by the letter of the win rate law. Usman Khawaja does, though, and Sportsbook go 10/34.33 about top and 6/42.50 for a 50. Smith, by the way, is 7/24.50 for a first-innings century
Top Australia first-innings bat wins/matches last 2 years
Khawaja 9/19
Head 5/20
Labuschagne 3/22
Green 1/19
Warner 1/20,
Smith 2/22
Carey 0/22
Top England first-innings bat
It could be said of Joe Root that, technically, he is the best equipped Englishman to score in any conditions. But that win rate on first-innings remains bleak even at 10/34.33 with Sportsbook.
Perversely, Root is a selection at 9/2 for a first-innings ton on two-year form. But as this market will be available in-play it is best to wait to see what is happening on the square.
Harry Brook, if he bats at No 3, would be a strong short under leaden skies at 5/61.84 at 30.5.
Ben Stokes is 13/27.50 for top bat. It will be popular given his brilliance at Lord's and ground form. We note the 12/113.00 that he wins man of the match.
Top England first-innings bat wins/matches under Stokes
Brook 4/8
Bairstow 2/8
Root 2/14
Stokes 1/15
Crawley 1/15
Duckett 1/7
Top England wicket-taker
Want to back a bowler who averages 18 at Headingley in the last eight Tests with a wicket every 39 balls at third favourite for his team's top bowler market?
Of course you do. But it's James Anderson. Either Anderson's career has fallen off a cliff or he has been nullified by the wickets in the first two Tests.
It may come to be a reget of England's that they didn't give their greatest bowler the surfaces to inflict the sort of damage on Australia that he has done time and time again in England.
Such has been Anderson's poor returns that he isn't expected to play. But if he doesn't you get your money back at 10/34.33. That's not a great price on returns rate, or a bad one. It's bang on.
Top bowler wins/matches under Ben Stokes' captaincy
Robinson 2 2t/9
Broad 2 2t/12
Anderson 2 t/13
Stokes 1 t/16
Top Australia bowler 1st inns wins/matches last two years
Cummins 4 3t/18
Starc 4 2t/18
Lyon 4 4t/22
Hazlewood 1/6
Boland 1/9
Green 1/19
Read Ian Bell on England's third Test chances here
Watch Cricket...Only Bettor Ultimate Betting Guide to the 3rd Ashes Test with Ian Bell