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England favourites to level series
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Keep eye on weather forecast
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Head has ground form
England v Australia
Thursday 27 July, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Top series runscorer
There is plenty to be decided - not just the series result - at The Oval from Thursday. All three of the Sportsbook series tops markets are up for grabs; top runscorer, top wicket-taker and player of the series.
Usman Khawaja is the king in waiting. The Australia opener is 15/82.88 for top bat, eight runs behind 21/103.10 chance Zak Crawley, and given how the highest runscorer in the series has won the player award in four of the last five, runs in south London for the southpaw could see him dominate.
However, Khawaja's form has dipped significantly since the first two Tests. He has not passed 50 in his last four innings and there's a growing issue with Mark Wood's pace.
It could be that Wood has the biggest say of all. He is the kingmaker. Travis Head, 70 runs behind Khawaja, will be confident of runs at The Oval after his 163 in the WTC Final. But Wood is also a nemesis as he leads England's short-ball barrage against him.
Wood is a fitness doubt, of course. He has been picked but there are worries whether he's at full tilt. He could disrupt the top-bat market and player of the series market. For the latter, he is probably a live candidate.
Although Khawaja's impact may be greater, recency bias is not an affliction resreved for punters. When the coaches and captains discuss their nominations, Wood will unequvocally be discussed as the man who aletered the course of the contest. If England win then the 25/126.00 may be a winning voucher.
Khawaja could also still be seen as value on player of the series at 2/13.00 as all he may need to do is outscore Crawley. The destination of the urn has also been pivotal in deciding this market.
Top first-innings runscorer
Back to Khawaja again. Despite his downturn in form, he remains a win-rate wager given his extraordinary record. Sportsbook make him a 7/24.50 chance.
Marnus Labuschagne and Mitch Marsh, however, are the form players and we would be keen to get with both of them.
Labuschagne's half-century and century should probably have won him man of the match at Old Trafford. Marsh is seeing it like a football.
The 7/24.50 about Labuschagne top scoring in the first couldn't be described as value, though. The 8/52.60 about a fifty has no appeal at either considering that's winning at a rate of 33%. The 5/61.84 that he goes over 32.5 runs in the first might be best.
Marsh is 6/17.00 for top Australia bat and few could argue that a sensible stake on him to win would be considered a mug bet.
For England, there is win-rate value on Harry Brook only at 9/25.50. Zak Crawley is 5/16.00 while Ben Stokes playing purely as a batter at 11/26.50 focuses his mind.
Stokes is 23/103.30 for a fifty in the first. That's not close on win rate in his spell as captain but it will prove popular. Brook has ten fifties in his 18-innings Test career so the 21/103.10 has appeal.
Top Australia first-innings bat wins/matches last 2 years
Khawaja 9/21
Head 5/22
Labuschagne 3 t/24
Green 1/20
Warner 1/22
Smith 2/24
Carey 0/24
M Marsh 1 t/2
Cummins 0/24
Top England first-innings bat wins/matches under Stokes
Brook 4/10
Bairstow 2/10
Root 2/16
Stokes 2/17
Crawley 2/17
Duckett 1/9
Top bowler wins/matches under Ben Stokes' captaincy
Robinson 2 2t/10
Broad 2 2t/14
Anderson 2 t/14
Stokes 1 t/18
Wood 1/5
Woakes 1/2
Top Australia bowler 1st inns wins/matches last two years
Cummins 5 3t/20
Starc 4 2t/20
Hazlewood 2/7
Boland 1/10
Green 1/20
Top first-innings bowler
Josh Hazlewood may not have much to beat for Australia here. Hazlewood has warmed to his task in this series having been well-managed fitness wise.
With both Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc looking exhausted, he is at the other end of the spectrum. His five wickets at Old Trafford showed he was in top form.
At the least he should be second-favourite behind Cummins, who has been a massive disappointment in the market. Hazlewood is 16/54.20.