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England poised to level series
England v Australia
Saturday 29 July, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Fifth Test match odds
It took to the third day of the final Test but England, finally, dutifully, brought their shovels. They dug a great big pit in which to dump their rivals. While burying them, though, they got distracted. Something shiny, pretty, interesting caught their eye and they wandered off.
England should still win, though. They lead by 377. It could (should) have been far greater. From 332 for four they closed on 389-9. England are 1.564/7, the draw 6.806/1 and Australia 4.707/2, with the market surprisingly bullish about their chances of scrambling out of the dreadful hole with a record for The Oval 114 and counting and at least the seventh highest in history.
How long do England need for victory? There may be some nervousness about rain clouds rumbling around. Old Trafford and recency bias, naturally.
Well, in Australia's second innings this series they have averaged a wicket just over every 10 overs. That figure was at nine before Australia hung on impressively in the Manchester gloom. It's a jump which probably takes account of weary bodies and minds.
Combined, England have been plugging away at Australia for 15 wickets in a whopping 174 overs in the first dig at The Oval and last up north.
Over-rates is the debate which reaches the parts blue pills can't in the TMS box. And they could be getting a sweat on with England likely to take their sweet time. Remember it cost them 26 overs at Old Trafford. The days of 90 a day are long gone and Ben Stokes' attitude appears to be: are you not entertained?
If England can squeeze out 80 is a day, then it is reasonable to reckon that there is more than enough time to force victory. They will resume on day four, sending out Stuart Broad and James Anderson, perhaps emboldened by an improved weather forecast.
Accuweather, perhaps the one true winner in this even series, has been coming out on top again making the Met Office and BBC look like mere Associate-level amateurs.
Day Four is predicted to be cloudy with shower spots in the afternoon. And the rain which threatened Monday - causing a dive in the draw price at one stage - has disappeared.
Lay Australia
We still hold out hope for a bang at a draw lay, though. In our favour is Australia's negativity. It has almost certainly cost them the series. But their obduracy, a kinder word, is our friend. A similar sort of go-slow that we saw in the first-innings would be super. The market's penchant for panic when the stalemate odds are concerned is never far away.
It could be, though, given those 4.707/2 Australia odds and with two days left it is this price which dips. Any sort of partnership and it will be time to hit the lay button.
Australia are suspected to bat time, firmly stuck in that mindset that we saw at Old Trafford. They don't need to win. And with their run rate they know they probably can't.
Highest Test run chases
2003 418 West Indies v Australia
2008 406 South Africa v Australia
1948 404 Australia v England
1976 403 India v West Indies
2021 395 West Indies v Bangladesh
2017 388 Sri Lanka v Zimbabwe
2022 378 England v India
Australia second-innings runs
Steve Smith's second-innings record will come into sharp focus again as the series comes to a close. It's a stinker when filtered to the last two years.
Smith averages just 20 in that time with no fifties in 16 innings. He's not busted his runs quote this summer with a top score of just 34. We should expect to be able to short at around 39.5.
As for Australia innings runs, the average overs per wicket needed by England and a run rate of 3 in the requisite innings has them in for about 304. We doubt the line will be as high as that but are quite prepared to sell if we get the chance.