Ashes Third Test In-Play Tips: Ed Hawkins analyses day four with England's misery almost over

• Australia to retain the urn on day five

• England 207-6 needing 435

• Adelaide pitch taking spin

• Shorting England runs an option

• Don't miss our dedicated Ashes section HERE

Australia v England
Day 5: Saturday 20 December, 23.30
TV: Live on TNT

Third Test, Day Four Verdict: Lyon spinning his greatest hits

England have finally managed to take a Test on this tour to day five. They must be grateful for small mercies. Likewise Cricket Australia who will get a few extra receipts from the Aussie hordes who should turn up in their droves to Adelaide Oval to witness the urn being returned.

England's players may even sleep a little easier. The purgatory is almost over. Australia need four wickets and with Nathan Lyon spinning familiar and well-worn tunes, the hosts are 1.041/25.

Lyon was 11/112.00 before play resumed for a five-wicket haul with Sportsbook and he needs just two more. Those who missed out may consider England's runs too high at 280.5 with Sportsbook. With only 207 on the board and four wickets left, it is very much on trend now for this to end quickly.

And if Lyon doesn't get them, Travis Head might. It would be fitting if England's tormentor in chief with the bat then twisted the knife with the ball.

Up until Lyon's intervention England had actually battled hard. Their bowlers did remarkably to give them even a sniff of an unlikely win. Not that the match odds thought it was that outrageous. There was some 11/43.75 around when Zak Crawley and Harry Brook were going okay. Ah, Harry Brook.

There now have to be serious concerns to the suitability of Brook's position as captain-in-waiting for this team. There's no polite way of putting it but Brook just isn't very bright.

Stuart Broad was the first to raise the alarm at The Gabba when his injudicious shot exposed Ben Stokes to the pink ball and his nemesis Mitch Starc at a crucial juncture. And all dismissals, bar one, in this series could have been avoided with Brook applying his grey matter.

It is his consistent inability to read the match situation which means England surely have to look elsewhere. Maybe he can't read the scorecard or is one of those buffoons at dinner parties who cannot read the room or context. No Harry, put your trousers back on.

In the second dig here, the contortions he got himself into for his next foot-in-mouth faux pas were really something.  

Had Brook been aware of what was happening, or even bothering to watch, he would have known that Lyon was getting his stock ball to the right-hander to spit and bite out of the rough. This much was evident as early as day two when a delivery produced a big puff of dust and disturbed the surface.

Brook's response was to make himself a lefthander and try to smash him to the boundary with a reverse hoik. Which is spectacularly dumb for another reason; off-spin bowlers like bowling to southpaws because the ball is spinning away from the bat. Mastermind Brook didn't even realise for a few seconds that he had been bowled, the neurons requiring a few extra seconds to spark into life because they were too busy trying to get him to balance.

The Yorkshireman, gum chewing, spewing nonsense and metaphorically tripping over the boundary rope, personifies the ignorance of Bazball better than anyone.

Australia v England
Day 3: Friday 18 December, 23.30
TV: Live on TNT

Third Test, Day Three Verdict: Head's homecoming hero show

There was, early on day three, the brief glimmer of a contest. Then Ben Stokes made a horrible misjudgement which characterised England's Ashes performance on this tour and hopes of some heat to the betting contest were snuffed out.

Stokes and Jofra Archer had put on a commendable 106 for the eighth wicket and they were beginning to take decent chunks out of Australia's lead. But then Stokes tried to play inside out to an inswinger from his nemesis, Mitch Starc, and Australia were firmly back on track. It was the sort of rick which Stokes could be excused given his travails and guts but the context emphasised the gulf between these teams, not particularly in ability but decision-making at key times.

Besides, the reality was that Stokes and Archer, despite biffing a few and looking untroubled on day three, took only around three per cent off Australia's implied probability. Perhaps England should be grateful for small mercies.

From then on in it would largely have the feel of an Ashes procession. Travis Head treated as it a personal homecoming celebration, delighting his faithful with the second decisive innings of the series. Head's form has been sensational. And to think he was considered a weak link before a ball was bowled. He also personifies the gap between the teams. Australia solved their problems, England comppunded theirs.

With Australia's lead at 356 and rated as 1.132/15 chances for 3-0 (England are 14.5027/2 and the draw an irrelevant 19.5037/2), there are still betting opportunities, most notably top England second-innings batsman.

Root and Archer top bat options for England's second innings 

In short, Joe Root has almost nothing to beat apart from Stokes' obduracy and form, although one has to doubt whether he can go to the well for the second-successive innings. He must be mentally exhausted. Sportsbook rate Root at 3/14.00.

Archer will be popular at 45s given how he got in line and showed significant promise as a potential No 8 as England look ahead to their ubiquitous post-Ashes tour rebuild. 

England were set 468 on this ground on the previous Ashes tour and it could be that they suffer a similar target. Those with long memories will recall a broken England collapsing in a heap with Chris Woakes top scoring.

There is also a clue in the table below as to an in-play runs short. Ollie Pope has a horrible second-innings average and it's no surprise he has such dreadful returns on top bat. Shorting his runs in-play will be extremely popular for a man batting to save his career.

England 2nd inns top bat wins/matches

Australia v England
Day 3: Friday 18 December, 23.30
TV: Live on TNT

Third Test, Day Two Verdict: Relentless hosts ready to humiliate

Was this as grim as Perth? Probably not. Was it as incompetent as Brisbane? Probably not. But day two at Adelaide probably was a nadir for those desperate to see some competitive juice ooze from this Ashes series. It doesn't seem to matter what conditions England are afforded in this series, they just cannot cope.

On a flat batting wicket described as a paradise by Justin Langer and plenty more analysts besides, England had the opportunity to get a foothold in the series and put Australia under pressure. Even a late-order burst of runs couldn't quieten the thoughts that Australia had left 100-odd runs out there.

It certainly looked that way when Ben Duckett got England off to a rollicking start. Within the space of 11 balls, however, Duckett and Ollie Pope had fallen. Duckett seemingly surprised by Nathan Lyon being able to turn his off-break from the straight and Pope producing a shot which, barring a massive second-innings score, ends his Test career. It was same-old England.

As stated in the match odds preview it is high time to expect nothing more. England were broken at The Gabba and betting opportunities should focus on how Australia can humiliate England. To that end it is slightly frustrating that the innings victory bet is downed but this pitch is still good enough for the hosts to hand out a good, old-fashioned shellacking. Australia are 1.152/13 with England 11.010/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

When Australia bat again overs plays on innings runs par lines will be the way to go, probably at around the 350 mark. Don't be put off considering 400-450 on the Exchange's runs markets.

The table beow shows that there are few solid angles for top Aussie bat. Individual milestone betting should be the way to go, however. Travis Head, ready to give the home crowd more glory, should relish attacking a jaded England attack while Marnus Labuschagne should buckle down after too many false dawns in the series.

Australia top bat 2nd innings wins/matches

Australia v England
Day 2: Wednesday 17 December, 23.30
TV: Live on TNT

Third Test, Day One Verdict: Careless Aussies keep England keen

For the first time in the series it should be Australia who face criticism. Having won the toss and batted on a featherbed on a scorching Adelaide day, they not only left runs out there but kept England in the series.

For the first time in 15 years they are set to go under 430-odd in the first dig in Australia. And it's a wonder how they managed it. Perhaps the Bazball disease is catching. Jake Weatherald, Marnus Labuschagne and Usman Khawaja were all guilty of poor shots just when they looked like punishing England who had been buoyed by the absence of an ill Steve Smith.

They remain hot favourites and that may be a mistake. Australia are no better with 1.528/15 on the Betfair Exchange with England 3.5551/20 and the draw 16.0015/1. It is worth repeating: this is a good track and runs are there for the taking. Can England grasp the chance?

It says a lot about the faith the market has in England in this series now that even with the fall of Australia fifth wicket with the score on 185 Australia were 1/21.50. It was a below-par score for the state of the wicket as England threatened to run through.

But, then again, England had rather fluked their way to such a position. Whether it was the result of perspiration or Australian festive spirit, it matters not. What punters were actually seeing with their eyes was wayward England bowling. 

For all the talk of England putting everything on the line and being ready to roll following their mental switch off, they ran in like a bowling unit who looked desprately short of game time.

Brydon Carse kept overstepping and the pitch map could have bee a cut and paste job from Brisbane when they were too wide and too short. Even Jofra Archer, whose menace needed time to emrge, was wayward.

Looking ahead to England's innings, it may pay to consider milestone betting instead of taking on the top six or seven with just one batter going for your money. The pitch is good and backing good players to score is about a simple as it gets. Therefore Joe Root for a 50 at around 6/42.50 may be of interest. 

Root is 3/14.00 to top. Pre-toss we advised Zak Crawley was the man to follow and it is not a bad thing that he held on to an absolute screamer to give him confidence. Crawley has been pushed out to 13/27.50.

England top 1st inns runscorer win rate % last two years
Crawley 22.7
Duckett 8
Pope 16
Root 24
Brook 20
Stokes 0
Smith 23.5

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