Zimbabwe v India First T20: Huge underdogs can give India a fright

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Thursday 23 July, 12:00
TV: Sky Sports

Zimbabwe v India first T20 team news

Zimbabwe have five players capable of going toe-to-toe with the best. All are available for this series; opening batter Brian Bennett, skip Sikandar Raza, all-rounder Brad Evans and new-ball pair Richard Ngarava and Blessing Muzarabani.

It is fair to say that they are more dangerous with the ball than the bat. There is a lot resting on Bennett's shoudlers. At some stage in the series he will no doubt put India to the sword but it's unlikely that he will be able to do it for each of the three matches.

There have been squad changes from the series against Bangladesh. The uncapped keeper Tafadzwa Tsiga, batting all-rounder Wes Madhevere and fast bowler Newman Nyamhuri have replaced Clive Madande, Tinotenda Maposa and Tashinga Musekiwa.

Possible XI: Bennett, Marumani, Myers, Raza, Burl, Evans, Madhvere, Shumba, Nyamhuri, Ngrava, Muzarabani

India have lost their last six T20i. They were horrible in a crushing series defeat by England, precdeded by a 2-0 reverse against Ireland. They had never lost five t20 in a row before so they are in unchartered territory.

It is a reserve India team with skip Shreyas Iyer, Ishan Kishan, Abhishek Sharma, Shivam Dube and Tilka Varma the senior players. Vaibhav Sooryavanshi gets another chance to stake his claim to a permanent spot. Slightly surpising is the inclusion of one specialist spinner in Ravi Bishnoi, who may have found his level in series such as this.

There remains suspicion at fatigue with the coaching/management style of Gautam Gambhir. India were also below-par on the ODI series against England.

Possible XI: Abhishek, Sooryavnshi, Ishan, Shreyas, Tilak, Dube, Rinku, Bishnoi, Prince, Mayank, Ashok/Yash

Zimbabwe v India first T20 pitch report

There is a good study sample to work with as Harare Sports Club has hosted 27 matches in the last two years. It returns an RPO of 7.8 in that time but there doesn't appear to be a toss bias. Thirteen first-innings have come in under 165 which will inform those reckoning that Zimbabwe's batting could struggle. Indeed, against the ten established T20 teams (including Afghanistan and Bangladesh), they have come in under 145 in 15 from 26. Considering shorting Zimbabwe runs at the same mark on the Exchange is a starter for ten.

It would make sense if this surface was tricky. Zimbabwe, despite frailties of their own, would be foolish to produce a road to play into the hands of the India hitters. To that end, high lines for India's runs could be there to be taken on. Anything in the late 190s on a par line feels like a short.

Zimbabwe v India first T20 match prediction

Zimbabwe should offer India a stern test here, so long as they get a wicket which helps to reduce the talent gulf. There should no difference between the teams in terms of nous or gumption.

In the T20 World Cup Zimbabwe were excellent, winning their group without losing a game. They beat Australia and Sri Lanka. But flat wickets were their kryptonite. They got hammered against West Indies on a flatty at the Wankhede and then they conceded 256 against India on another road in Chennai.

In anticipation that Zimbabwe show some common sense, a gamble on them at big odds makes sense. As stated, this is a reserve India side while we're not convinced by the bowling attack, Prince Yadav aside.

Sportsbook offer the Zims at 6/17.00 but 8.6015/2 is available on the Exchange. It is true that many will feel that india can't possibly lose seven straight but this match has to be treated as a contest in isolation and in its own right. It's not hard to think that the gap between the two is not justified.

Zimbabwe v India first T20 player bets

A case can be made that Bennett is the most reliable top-bat bet in T20. Bennett has an astonishing hit rate of 42% for Zimbabwe. It's a big number. More impressive is the fact that the study sample is 45 games. It is hard to remeber a better strike rate over such a long period. The Betfair Sportsbook is yet to offer prices but we would expect around 3/14.00 to be available.

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