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England free from pressure at 3-0 down
- Cummins and Lyon likely miss out
- MCG pitch should be one for bowlers
- Bethell probable replacement for Pope
- Ed has betting strategies and Betfair Exchange trade angles
- Don't miss our dedicated Ashes section HERE
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Read all about Betfair's Boxing Day free bet offer here
Australia v England
Thursday December 25, 23.30
TV: Live on TNT
Australia v England fourth Ashes Test team news
Australia are without Pat Cummins, the captain, and Nathan Lyon. Cummins has basically said there is no point risking his back injury for meaningless games while Lyon was on crutches with a hamstring inhjury.
It pretty much confirms that for not a single game in this seris will Australia field a first-choice XI. Josh Hazlewood remains sidelined with a new injury.
Michael Neser, Brendan Doggett and Jhye Richardson (in that order) are vying for Cummins' spot. Lyon's spin place is likely to go to Todd Murphy.
Steve Smith is fit. He missed the Adelaide clash with vertigo which is a nasty, debilitating illness. It is an ailment which can come and go but he will skipper in Cummins' absence.
With Smith back, Jake Weatherald will keep his spot as opener. Usman Khawaja, the man in posession, should stay in the middle order. Cameron green may come under pressure for his spot from beau Webster
Possible Australia XI: Weatherald, Head, Labuschagne, Smith, Khawaja, Green/Webster, Carey, Neser, Starc, Boland, Murphy
England have let the axe fall on Ollie Pope's Test career after a double failure in Adelaide. It is likely to be the last we see of him for some time. His replacement, Jacob Bethell, perfectly encapsulates everything that is wrong with England under the Brendon McCullum regime.
Bethell has been picked on a gut feel rather than record. He has never scored a first-class century and loves to flash outside off. He made a solid start to his Test career against New Zealand but looked a couple of years off the real deal against India in the summer.
Ben Duckett would probably have been dropped as well if England had bothered to take a reserve opener. Jamie Smith has earnt a stay of execution for cheap runs when the pressure was off. Jofra Archer's tour is over with a aide strain so Gus Atkinson comes back in to join Brydon Carse and Josh Tongue.
England XI: Crawley, Duckett, Bethell, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Jacks, Carse, Atkinson, Tongue
Australia v England fourth Ashes Test pitch report
An Ashes Test on Boxing Day at the MCG is Australian heaven. There are few more important days in the calendar over four years for those Down Under. There could be an attendance of close to 90,000 for the first day.
Melbourne does offer potentially English-friendly conditions, such as seam and swing. This has meant that it has been England's second-most successful venue in Australia historically in terms of win ratio. Whether England are a team these days who can utilise (or counter with the bat) a moving ball is the key point.
The last five first-innings scores read: 474-318-189-185-195. The overheads are important and at this stage the forecast looks helpful for bowlers. There is rain forecast for the first two days.
In Shield cricket this season there has been one match, a low-scoring contest with no all-out score of more than 255. Western Australia's 194 played Victoria's 255 on first dig. Last season two matches saw bowlers dominate with all innings scores (first innings most recent) of: 172-123-223-249 and 272-136-246-241.
Stats and trends
- There has been one drawn Test at the MCG in the last ten
- The first-innings average runs per wicket is 40.3
- The fourth-innings average runs per wicket is 24.4
- Australia have won seven of the last ten
Australia v England fourth Ashes Test match prediction
Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes have admitted that their players have not been able to cope with the pressure of the Ashes, hence defeat in 11 days and jobs on the line.
In the absence of expectation we have two dead rubbers and it is not unreasonable to reckon that they should start to put some performances together. It was notable with the game gone in Adelaide they took six wickets for 38 Australia runs and then produced their best batting performance of the series.
Backing England may sound like insanity but the logic is sound, particularly with Australia missing key players again and a a sense that the job is done. If it wasn't, why isn't Cummins playing?
Are Australia really considered value at 1.548/15? Not really. The 3.5551/20 on the visitors is certainly worth an interest. The draw is 13.5025/2 and it could be that starts to contract in the build-up.
Best of all is an MCG pitch and conditions which should reduce the gulf between the sides. This feel like a shootout. It wouldn't be a surprise if the toss winner bowled first. Conditions may be best for batting on day three.
Back England
Australia v England Fourth Ashes Test in-play bets and strategies
What unites both teams in this series is their ability to have a collapse with the bat. And in-play strategies, allied with that MCG pitch and weather report, should mean that extreme unders are an option here.
We absolutely know that England can fold cheaply while the home batting without Smith looks vulnerable. It is worth asking: what would Australia have done without Travis Head or Alex Carey (and Snicko) in this series?
Any semblanmce of a partnership (50 runs or so) and it could be time to hit unders on the par line or chop off 50-100 from that in the main runs market. Sportsbook offer partnership runs and if there is evidence that the ball is doing bits, selling routinely can make for easy profits.
We will also be keeping an eye on the market for the Test to go to Day Five. Any delay because of rain will mean that the lay price on 'yes' will come in sharply. It is worth remembering that mositure and cluds can mean a clatter of wickets, as those Sheffield Shield matches prove.