Australia v England Second Ashes Test Tips: Last chance saloon for tourists

• No Cummins again for hosts

• But England without injured Wood
• Jacks comes in ahead of Bashir
• Day-night conditions may favour the bowlers
• Ed has beeting strategies and Betfair Exchange trade angles
• Don't miss our dedicated Ashes section HERE

Australia v England
Thursday 4 December, 04.00
TV: Live on TNT

Australia v England second Ashes Test team news

Australia remain without their captain, Pat Cummins, who was ruled out for the second consecutive Test last week. With no Josh Hazlewood, either, it means they look certain to name the same bowling unit so Brendan Doggett goes again.

The hosts stumbled on a solution to worries about their batting problems thanks to Usman Khawaja's back spasm. Surely they take the bull by the horns and ask Travis Head to open alongside Jake Weatherald? Head's extraordinary blitz in Perth was significant not just in terms of the result because it banished concerns over his form.

Dropping Khawaja and moving up Head would free a slot in the middle order for another all-roudner in Beau Webster or Josh Inglis, who scored a ton against the Lions. 

Possible Australia XI: Head, Weatherald, Labuschagne, Smith, Green, Inglis, Carey, Starc, Boland, Lyon, Doggett

England have been denied the opportunity to name the same XI with the loss of Mark Wood to injury. Wood's knee has flared up again and it wouldn't be a major surprise if that is him done for the series. Will Jacks is the surprise chpoice as spinner to replace him.

It could be considered a negative move as it means England bat all the way down to No 11 now. Is Jacks really going to take wickets at this level? Ben Stokes suggested he would be used to get through overs so to quickly move the game on in terms of time and overs.

Zak Crawley, externally, is under huge pressure following a Perth pair. Thousands of column inches have been written about the indiscriminate strokeplay from the likes of Harry Brook and Joe Root. They really need to knuckle down. 

England XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Jacks, Atkinson, Carse, Archer

Australia v England second Ashes Test pitch report

Humidity, floodlights and a pink ball means there is a strong chance that the bowlers dominate again in Brisbane. The surface is said to be lively with decent pace and bounce, although not as quick as Perth.

In a Sheffield Shield day-night match a good cricket wicket was produced with 318 playing 430 in the first before a significnat dip in the third innings. It wouldn't be a surprise if we saw runs up front in the day light hours before bowlers came to the fore. That is not neccessarily because the ball swings more under lights but just the fact that it is harder to see, specifically what the black seam is doing. 

Stats and trends

• There has been one draw in the last 10 at the Gabba
• The first-innings average runs per wicket is 32.9
• The fourth-innings average runs per wicket is 36.1
• Australia have lost only twice at the Gabba since 1987
• The average first-innings score in the last 10 is 327

Batting average  in last six day-night Tests in Australia

• 34.5 1^st innings
• 23.3 2nd innings
• 17.6 3rd innings
• 15.99 4th innings

Australia v England second Ashes Test match prediction

There is a familiar feeling to this Ashes series Down Under. England are chastened, criticised and picking up injuries. This could be a long tour for them and gamblers. With Australia so dominant historically pre-toss value is hard to find.

This could be, then, last chance for England. Them and us. They will be hard to justify at odds of 3.1085/40 if they go down to another defeat here but there are reasons for optimism. There have to be.

A pink ball Test, despite Australia's record, does give them hope. Their bowlers should be extremely dangerous if they can get best use of conditions. To do that it would make sense if Ben Stokes batted first. In Australia eight of the 13 day-night tests have been won that way. Fifteen of 24 (63%) pink-ball Tests have been won by the team batting first compared to 194 out of the 396 (49%) red-ball Tests in the same period.

The pink ball in daylight is the best oppooirtunity for runs and batting first is the only way a team can guarantee that they get optimum conditions for runmaking. Batting first and with Australia still not at full-strength England have to be worth a crack.

Perth proved there is little to choose between the sides. Head's epic was the difference and it could be that moments of individual brilliance decide many of these games. England match up well for game changers.

What will not change is England's aggressive approach. It wins them games. It loses them games. It did against Australia two years ago and against India in the summer.  

Australia v England Second Ashes Test in-play bets and strategies

Bazball is many things to many different people. To get introspective for a minute, it is actually a reaction to the mental health 'crisis' caused by lokcdown/bubble Tests. An antidote to the lack of freedoms and over-zealous rules. These were mirrored in the structured way England played.

As much as providing fertile ground for debate, gamblers love it. England's recklesseness is maginificent for the markets  and the trading strategy is simple, particularly in the first innings. Prohibitive prices on England open the gate for backing Australia. And vice versa. Placing orders on both teams a point higher is the way to go.

For other markets in-play we are very keen on another England collapse. If they bat first it should be set up perfectly. They make hay when the sun is out but conditions change when the it goes down and lights come up. This could be around the 40-45 over mark depending on over rates. A sell of England's runs is on our card and repeating the trick in line with conditions for Australia and other innings is sharp.

Now read Ed's best player bets for the second Test