South Africa v Pakistan Second ODI Tips: Visitors hard to ignore defending

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South Africa v Pakistan
Thursday 17 December, 12:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa v Pakistan Second ODI team news

South Africa were below par with the bat in Paarl on Tuesday and they were unable to recover to avoid going 1-0 behind. It was the first time in five matches that a team had not busted 280 batting first there so 239-9 was always going to be a struggle.

They lost skip Temba Bavuma due to managing a workload with an eye on the Test series to come. It could be that he returns for this contest but if not Ryan Rickleton will open and Aiden Markram will lead. Kwena Maphaka, the tyro pacer, was not required in game one while an injury to Wiaan Mulder means Andile Phehlukwayo is a certainty for the series.

Probable SA XI: De Zorzi, Rickleton, Markram, Stubbs, Klaasen, Miller, Jansen, Phehlukwayo, Rabada, Baartman, Shamsi

Pakistan recovered from 60-4 in the chase when they looked like turning in a classic Jekyll and Hyde performance. Fortunately Saim Ayub and Salman Agha had other ideas.

Ayub hit 109 off 119 and Agha 82 off 90. If the powers-that-be that run the Pakistan game get it right (no guarantee) they have two new superstars right there and punters can expect major contributions from the pair in 2025.

Agha claimed man of the match with four wickets. This column had been calling for his all-round abilities to be utilised in the T20 series. Naseem Shah and Haris Rauf looked out of form with the ball so don't be surprised to see Mohammad Hasnain get a game.

Possible Pakistan XI: Ayub, Shafique, Babar, Ghulam, Rizwan, Salman, Irfan, Afridi, Naseem, Abrar, Hasnain

South Africa v Pakistan Second ODI pitch report

There hasn't been a day-night contest at Newlands since 2020. That might have something to do with the hefty toss bias which is one of the most famous in the game; out of 33 day-nighters 24 have been won by the team batting first. It was a bias which was made infamous in the 2003 World Cup when England, a hopeless ODI side, suddenly reckoned they had a chance in the tournament after they roared back to defend 246 against Pakistan.

In terms of runs, the last six day-night first-innings (a study sample going back ten years) shows a mixed bag. More than 300 has been busted three times and under 260 has come in three times. The run rate for both innings is 5.7. It might not be wise to expect runs. Par lines in the 280s look like shorts. No rain is forecast.

South Africa v Pakistan Second ODI match prediction

South Africa are 1.625/8 with Pakistan 2.568/5. Those are bonkers prices for two reasons. Firstly, South Africa are skinnier despite defeat and Pakistan much bigger. Secondly, it is clear that this should be a toss game so there should be very little to choose between the two.

We often talk about Pakistan being unpredictable but they are only backable at odds-against with a leveller in play. The leveller, of course, is the bias for the side batting first. Their attack should be perfect for making this ball bend under lights with Shaheen Afridi, Rauf and Hasnain, whichever combo they go with, dangerous. At the least Pakistan trade short favs with the toss in their favour.

South Africa v Pakistan Second ODI player bets