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Winner meets Washington in final
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Has rain ruined batters' paradise?
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Texas should have too much for MINY
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Betfair Predicts is your essential guide to England v India this summer
Texas Super Kings v MI New York
Saturday 11 July, 01:00
TV: Live on Willow
Texas Super Kings v MI New York MLC team news
Texas Super Kings were denied the opportunity to make a bid to go straight to the final when the qualifier was washed out against Washington Freedom in Dallas. It meant that Freedom progressed due to finishing in top spot.
They have had a strong season, though, losing only three games. Now in a knockout they need more from Marcus Stoinis, who is yet to put together an all-round performance. There have been flashes. His three wickets in defeat against San Francisco suggested he was getting there. They are a bit reliant on Faf Du Plessis, top tournament bat, for runs.
Possible Texas XI: Smit Patel, Du Plessis, Mukkamalla, Stoinis, Ranjane, Ferreira, Savage, Akeal, Milne, Noor, Zia-ul-haq
MI New York stunned San Francisco on Thursday to keep their hopes of the title alive. They won by two wickets after rolling the Unicorns for just 131. Trent Boult produced an unlikely all-round effort to make the difference. He took two wickets and then hit an unbeaten 22.
Boult came in at 108 for eight in the last ball of the 17th with plenty to do. Micheal Bracewell, Kieron Pollard and Quinton de Kock (and Boult) had been returned to the XI after they were rested for the final group game.
Possible MINY XI: Monank, De Kock, Pooran, Bracewell, Pollard, Tajinder, Richards, Luus, Boult, Kenjige, Ugarkar
Texas Super Kings v MI New York MLC pitch report
Confidence in batters dominating again at the Grand Prairie Stadium is in tatters after the low-scoring eliminator. Unicorns' 131 was the lowest first-innings score this season at the venue by 38.
In the 13 league games more than 190 was busted eight times. Both teams to bust 190 had won six times. Plans to get long of sixes and fours should also be shelved. Sixes lines over 19.5 had won seven times this term. Over 33.5 fours won five. The respective lines have come to down to 18.5 and 29.5 with unders wins at six and seven respectively.
It is possible that the heavy rain in Dallas has impacted the quality of the drop-in surface. So we have gone from betting on a known quantity to an unknown quantity in regards to the wicket. That should make punters feel very uncomfortable. We really should only be betting on what we know to be true. A runs-related bet then is a guess at this stage.
The forecast has been good in Dallas so the opportunity to get on the surface and dry out any residual moisture below is there. We also note the potential for a 55m boundary from the Race Track End for right-handers hitting to the leg side.
Texas Super Kings v MI New York match prediction
Over the league season Texas Super Kings have shown themselves to be a vastly superior side to the New York franchise. A good indicator is not just the gap in wins (seven for Texas, three for MI) but the net run rate. Texas are better by more than a run.
In the head-to-head Texas dominate. They won both encounters, the first (Texas' opener) by three runs and then the second by 39. Now it could be that the pitch is suddenly a lottery and a leveller for ability gaps but Texas really should have too much. The truth is they should be shorter than 1.875/6.
If the pitch is dodgy again, there is nothing wrong with considering the tie trade and wagering on a tight, attritional affair. Backing high up to 50.049/1 and then laying off for a last-over finish is a system that works well in franchise.
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Texas Super Kings v MI New York MLC player bets
The likes of Du Plessis and Nic Pooran will be all the rage for top bats. But one area where we are prepared to take a gamble on the state of the pitch is big prices on lower-order batters. There was a clue in the eliminator with Xavier Bartlett winning for Unicorns and Boult also hitting late-order runs. It is possible that 30-odd wins this market.
For Texas, Akeal Hosein could fit the bill at 25s while Adam Milne could also be underrated at 70s. He is no mug with the willow. For MINY Kieron Pollard has a win to his name and is ideally suited to crafting a score on a dung heap. His price might be a little short for the rationale, though, so consider South African batter Heath Richards down at No 7 at 17s.