Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians IPL Tips: Mumbai remain too short to bet

• Should Punjab be shorter after topping table?

• Market is obsessed with Mumbai Indians stars

• Ahmedabad a venue which says runs should flow

• Winner meets Kohli's RCB in the final

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians
Sunday 1 June, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians IPL team news

Punjab either cracked under the pressure of their biggest game of the season against RCB in Mullanpur. Or they could blame a dodgy batting wicket when rolled for 101. The rational verdict is that it was the former given the ease with which three sides have batted on the same wicket since.

It is also true, however, that Punjab have chaos in their locker and absolutely give a team a chance. Whether they were unsettled by being without Marco Jansen and Yuz Chahal remains to be seen. Jansen has departed but they desperately need Chahal to be fit. Aaron Hardie and Xavier Bartlett are other options as overseas allrounders instead of Azmatullah Omarzai and Kyle Jamieson.

Possible Punjab bat XI: Arya, Prab Singh, Inglis, Wadhera, Iyer (Harpreet sub) , Stoinis, Shahshank, Omarzai, Jamieson, Arshdeep, Chahal

Mumbai Indians knocked out Gujarat Titans by defending 228 in Mullanpur on Friday. Rohit Sharma took the plaudits and match award with 81 from 50 but anyone who knows anything about this format will argue that it was Jasprit Bumrah who made the difference.

In a contest where run rates were at 10.8, the bowler who concedes only 6.25 is the real hero. Bumrah covers a multitude of sins for Mumbai in the field. Jonny Bairstow and Richard Gleeson came into the XI to replace Ryan Rickleton and Will Jacks.

Possible MI bat XI: Rohit, Bairstow, Yadav, Tilak, Hardik, Dhir, Santner, Bhawa, Boult, Bumrah, Gleeson

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians pitch report

More than 220 has been busted in four of the seven games at Ahmedabad this season. It is reliably flat and busting 200 is the absolute minimum for this contest for the side batting first. Both teams are set up to do it. Punjab and MI average 9.9 runs per over and 9.4 respectively with the bat. A par line of overs 197.5 does look cheap given the form. Our only concern is Punjab's mentality batting first so we will caveat with MI.

The sixes overs line is 18.5 with Sportsbook at 4/51.80. Punjab average 9.5 this term and MI 9.7. The line has been beaten in five of the seven matches at the venue so far. It is interesting that MI have average more sixes and fours this season which hardens our view on the par line bet.

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians IPL match prediction

Mumbai Indians are 1.684/6 with Punjab Kings 2.447/5. We have been here before with this Mumbai price haven't we?

It seems to make no difference who they are playing against but Mumbai will be prohibitively short. Sure, they beat Gujarat last time out at skinny odds despite having lost both head-to-heads.

So it stands to reason that the market favours them against the best team in the league season and one which gave them a thumping only days ago? Not really.

Punjab are obvious value at the odds. One could make a case for MI as marginal favourites based on the Bumrah factor or big-game mentality (both factors) but that doesn't equate to the gulf. Anyone who has watched this tournament would have this a much closer affair with Punjab no worse than 2.206/5 chances.

IF MI do win the toss and bat, one has to make peace that any pre-toss bet could look poor value at the break. Playing a waiting game, therefore, and going with Punjab at the break is an option.

Punjab Kings v MI IPL player bets

We await a win for Tilka Varma for top bat. We were on him to do so in the head-to-head six days ago, largely because he is due on win rate and has a good match-up. Before that contest he averaged 65 against the Punjab attack. Sportsbook offer 7/24.50. The Bumrah man of the match wager has not won yet this season. It is hard for him to win as discussed above but the 11/112.00 may be tempting. 

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