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Chakravarthy to the fore
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Pitch may be slowing
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Stoinis in form, De Kock boosted
Kolkata Knight Riders v Lucknow Super Giants
Saturday 20 April, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Team news
Kolkata's chances of qualifcation are somewhere between improbable and miniscule. The former may have left town already. They need a huge win and results elsewhere to go their way. But it's not been too bad a campaign.
Many expected them to finish bottom. They pulled off a fine win in Chepauk last time to prove they're not just a hit-and-hope outfit.
Probable XII: Roy, Gurbaz, Venkatesh, Rana, Rinku, Russell, Thakur, Narine, Arora, Harshit, Varun, Suyash *Possible sub
Lucknow, 2.407/5 to reach the final, have won two on the spin at just the right time and have adapted well to the loss of KL Rahul, the skipper. Whisper it, but perhaps they may be better off without the slow coach.
Still, Deepak Hooda's horrible form remains an issue and pairing Kyle Mayers and Quinton de Kock as opening pair with Avesh Khan replacing Naveen-ul-Haq might be a decent move.
Possible XII: De Kock, Mayers, Mankad, Stoinis, Pooran, Krunal, Badoni, Avesh, Bishnoi, Swapnil, Mohsin, Thakur *Possible sub
Pitch report
There have been signs that the Edens Gardens surfaces have been starting to slow up. The first three first-innings saw scores over 200. In the last three we've seen: 179, 179 and 149. Spinners are to the fore now, too, and we would be wary about playing overs. Going unders in the mid 180s is an option.
How to play
Kolkata are 2.0811/10 favourites with Lucknow 1.8910/11. Those odds might not be proved to be right. The hosts know their ground and have a potential of 12 overs of decent spin on a wearing surface to do some damage.
Sure, Lucknow are used to dodgy surfaced themselves but this has the hallmark of a choice affair, particularly with the visitors potentially tight with the prospect of a top-two finish.
The toss could be key. The last three have been won by the chaser, perhaps because the side batting first has struggled to work out a good score because of the flat-wicket reputation. The hosts could trade odds-on if the flip goes their way.
Tops value
Spin has dominated in the last three matches and that is where we focus our attention on the player markets.
Varun Chakravarthy has been superb this season the 5/2 may seem short with Sportsbook but it still has potential. That's because if KKR bowl second, we'll be betting without Suyash Sharma who is their go-to subbed in spinner.
For Lucknow, Marcus Stoinis is putting together match-changing performances. He is 9/2 for top bat. De Kock has been boosted to 13/5. Jason Roy has been boosted to 7/2.