Sunrisers Hyderabad v Mumbai Indians: Go under on runs at rapidly slowing Sharjah

Sunrisers Hyderabad captain David Warner
David Warner's men must win today

This a must-win for Sunrisers while Mumbai are free to rest players. Paul Krishnamurty predicts another low-scoring affair at Sharjah...

"Sunrisers won impressively at this ground at the weekend, producing a superb display to reduce RCB to a mere 120."

Sunrisers Hyderabad v Mumbai Indians
Tuesday, 14:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

This is the final game of the group stage and there is plenty still on the line. Not least my hopes of turning around grim stats from my columns during this IPL.

Sunrisers must win to reach play-offs

Hope springs eternal on that front, with Delhi Capitals now assured a top-two spot and two cracks at reaching the final. To join them in the play-offs and set up a strong position, Sunrisers must upset the odds here. If not, Kolkata will go through instead

Far from easy, of course, given that Mumbai have been the standout side, but perhaps the additional motivation will make the difference. One would expect Mumbai to rest players and maybe experiment.

Sunrisers superb at Sharjah on Saturday

A further positive is that Sunrisers won impressively at this ground at the weekend, producing a superb display to reduce RCB to a mere 120. They'd previously hammered Delhi by going hell for leather from the outset and reaching 219.

Given all that, taking Mumbai at 1.84/5 before a very significant toss makes no appeal. Chasing sides have won the last five matches at Sharjah and 16 of the last 20 in the tournament.

Unders on runs a must-bet

1st Innings Runs may very well be overstated. Par was set around 175-180 here on Saturday and Sportsbook odds of just 4/6 that both sides make 170 suggests it will be the same. If so, I will be laying the 170 and 160 plus bands at 1.75/7 and 1.42/5.

Sharjah pitches have become very slow as the tournament has worn on. Yes, there are sixes for the taking but expect a lot of dot balls. The last three first innings here were 120, 149 and 112. The previous two were 179 and a miraculous 171.

When they met here early in the season amid much more batting-friendly conditions, Mumbai defended 208 easily, restricting Sunrisers to 174.

I wouldn't fancy many teams getting to 160 at this stage of the season against this Mumbai attack. Jasprit Bumrah and Trent Boult have been imperious - Sunrisers should pray at least one will be rested. Rahul Chahar should be very effective on this pitch.

Sunrisers bowlers should like conditions

Containing their batsmen isn't easy but I do think this Sunrisers attack is up to the job. Restricting on slow pitches has long been their forte.

Rashid Khan is typically costing just 5.07 per over and Thangarasu Natarajan's economy of 7.88 disguises how well he's become bowling at the death. His four overs went for a miserly 2.75 on Saturday.

Today's four Oddsboosts involve market leaders. Rashid and Bumrah are enhanced to 9/5 and 21/10 respectively to be their side's Top Wicket Taker. Quinton De Kock and David Warner to 13/5 and 16/5 for Top Batsman.

Pollard to make hay with short boundaries

Short odds in this market are of no interest. A finisher could easily top score with a barrage of late sixes. This ground is easy pickings for a man with Kieron Pollard's power. 9/1 is a fair price.

For Sunrisers, I'll repeat the two bets that lost on Saturday. 50/1 about Rashid with bat is always worth a poke. Natarajan appeals at 9/2 for top wicket taker, given the form he's been in.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

Paul's IPL 2020 P/L

-35.7 units

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