Chennai Super Kings v Kolkata Knight Riders IPL Tips: First match at the Wankhede promises big runs

Paul Krishnamurty
25 March 2022

Chennai Super Kings all-rounder Ravi Jadeja

Ravi Jadeja starred on his last IPL visit to the Wankhede

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The IPL starts Saturday with a repeat of last year's final. Paul Krishnamurty previews CSK v KKR and, based on long-term stats at the Wankhede Stadium, recommends backing a run-fest...

"A new tournament means a fresh pitch and is therefore arguably the best time to back 'overs'. In the last four Wankhede seasonal debuts, the lowest total was 165 and six out of eight were in excess of 170."
Back Both Teams to Score 170 3u @ 2.77/4
Back Both Teams to Score 180 2u @ 4.57/2

Chennai Super Kings v Kolkata Knight Riders
Saturday, 14:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

Just six months after they contested the 2021 final, Chennai Super Kings and Kolkata Knight Riders kick off the 2022 IPL. That final was in Dubai and this match is also played on neutral territory - at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai.

Both sides have impeccable tournament pedigree. Chennai played in 12 of the 14 IPL renewals, reaching nine finals and winning four titles. Kolkata are twice former champions. Ahead of this renewal, they're are trading at 9.08/1 and 10.09/1 to win the title.

Eyecatching odds, given their recent achievements but there is an important caveat. With two new franchises, the league is bigger, harder to win and we've seen more churn between staff than ever. All squads are significantly different to 2021.

Chennai squad looks weaker this term

Chennai have suffered three critical losses. Faf du Plessis, a talismanic figure last year, is replaced by Devon Conway. Deepak Chahar is injured and fellow paceman Josh Hazlewood is now at RCB. Whereas Conway is well capable of a starring role, I'm sceptical either Chris Jordan or Adam Milne can fill the pace void.

It didn't deter them last year but this is an ageing squad. MS Dhoni, Robin Uthappa and Dwayne Bravo are all past their best. (Although it wouldn't surprise to see Bravo enjoy an Indian summer now retired from international cricket.)

Iyer and Billings should prove good signings

Kolkata in contrast look stronger. Shreyas Iyer is a fantastic signing, just as he begins to really fulfil his potential. Eoin Morgan has gone but the former captain had become a liability. Sam Billings should be an improvement. If the line-ups are as predicted by Inside Sport below, their middle/finishing order of Billings/Russell/Nabi/Narine is formidable.

CSK: Gaikwad, Uthappa, Conway, Rayudu, Dhoni, Jadeja, Dube, Bravo, Jordan, Milne, Solanki.

KKR: V Iyer, Rahane, S Iyer, Rana, Billings, Russell, Nabi, Russell, Mavi, Yadav, Chakravarthy.

Expect high-scoring matches involving KKR

My first instinct is that both sides are better with bat than ball. KKR in particular look likely to be involved in high-scoring affairs. They can improve on that line-up in due course with Pat Cummins, but he is generally expensive in the IPL.

Happily, this opening match offers the perfect opportunity to back that theory. It is all there in the numbers. The Wankhede Stadium is one of the most reliable grounds in India for producing runs and lines look too low.

Par is well in excess of 170

Regarding 1st Innings Runs, 170 was reached in five of the last six IPL matches here, and in 12 of the last 17. It should start odds-on. Both sides hit 170 in five of the last ten, and in nine of the last 17, so again has a better than even money chance of conversion. Yet the odds are a juicy 17/10.

Likewise 180 was hit by both sides in four of the last ten and six of the last 17, yet is available at an enhanced 7/2 here. Back both. A new tournament means a fresh pitch and is therefore arguably the best time to back 'overs'. In the last four Wankhede seasonal debuts, the lowest total was 165 and six out of eight were in excess of 170.

The Total Sixes odds are not live yet but if you're playing that market, note a similar trend. Over 14.5 sixes landed in seven of last ten and 12 of the last 17.

There isn't a big toss bias at this ground to deter a pre-match bet. Chasers lead defenders 19-16 over the last four seasons, which is slightly lower than the average in India. Whilst I prefer other tips to recommend, I reckon KKR are fair value at 2.111/10. They look superior after all the changes.

Try this combo for top CSK runscorer

As in every match, Betfair Sportsbook have enhanced the odds about two batsmen. Ruturaj Gaikwad is at 11/4 for CSK, Venkatesh Iyer at 10/3 for KKR. The former makes much more appeal on the numbers.

Gaikwad's second season was superb and more is expected. He's the key to Chennai's title defence in my view. He finished as top CSK bat on six out of 16 starts - equivalent to 37.5% or odds of 2.67 - comfortably shorter than today's 3.7511/4. Note too that he was up against Du Plessis, who won the market on five occasions.

Also Ravi Jadeja is surely overpriced at 18.017/1. The aforementioned line-up has him coming in at six but there's a high chance he'll be promoted to five above Dhoni. Jadeja's batting has markedly improved of late and, in the last IPL match played at the Wankhede, he both top-scored for CSK and won man of the match.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty