Chennai Super Kings v Gujarat Titans
Sunday 15 May 11.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Chennai cooked
Chennai Super Kings have had a curious tournament. Their batting has fired - with more 200 scores than anyone - but a lack of bowling resources has eventually cost them.
Injuries to Deepak Chahar, ruled out before a ball was bowled, and Adam Milne have been tough to take. The chronic loss of form and confidence of Ravi Jadeja has been another reason why their play-off hopes are already over.
Last time out they produced a stinker against Mumbai Indians and one sus-pects any sense of intensity has now gone. They were rolled for just 97.
Possible XI: Gaikwad, Conway, Moeen, Uthappa, Rayudu, Dhoni, Dube, Bravo, Singh, Thheekshana, Choudhury
Gujarat strong
At the halfway point of their top-of-the-table clash against Lucknow Super Giants, Gujarat were staring at a three-game losing streak which seriously threatened their top two status.
Defending just 144, another loss could have serious repercussions. But if there were any doubts that they were the real deal, they were emphatically dismissed. Play-off qualification was confirmed with a superb display as they won by a massive 62 runs.
Gujarat have strengthened their batting by recalling Matthew Wade. Lockie Ferguson has missed out. The Kiwi could return if they prefer his more reliable style to Alzarri Joseph.
Probable XI: Saha, Gill, Hardik, Wade, Miller, Tewatia, Rashid, Kishore, Joseph, Shami, Dayal.
Pitch report
The first-innings scores at the Wankhede this season (1-2 denote match won by team bat-ting first or second, most recent first) read: 97-2/192-1/189-2/152-2/195-1/146-2/195-2/187-1/168-1/222-1/189-1/165-1/169-2/137-2/158-2/131-2.
Chennai's 97 shouldn't put us off expecting decent runs at this venue. Seven of the last 11 have seen at least 180 busted.
But we can be canny here. As explained on Cricket...Only Bettor, the record for big late runs at the Wankhede is very strong. Going big in the death overs in the first-innings is a great option, adding 50 or 60 runs at high prices. Or you can be more circumspect and pay over the runs line.
Titans underrated
Gujarat Titans are 1.875/6 with Chennai 2.1411/10. These are extremely surprising odds at this stage of the season.
Gujarat are the best team in it, Chennai are not. Nine wins for the Titans and just four for CSK is not a competitive heat, particularly as there is a clear gulf in ability in the field.
It would be a surprise if Gujarat didn't consolidate their No 1 spot with a strong bowling show against a Chennai line-up which is dangerous but flaky. The collapse against Mumbai is unlikely to be easy to put of their mind against the best attack in the tournament. Bet the market here.
Tops value
There are a couple of big prices which standout for top runscorer. First off, Gujarat. Rashid Khan does not have a great record in winning this market (in fact it's non-existent) but we recognise that as he has been promoted to No 7, the 22/1 with Sportsbook has appeal.
Ambati Rayudu seems very toppy at 11/1 for Chennai. He has moved around the top order all season and Robin Uthappa should not be getting in ahead of him at No 4. Still, we expect to see him in at least No 5. He's priced as if batting at No 6. Bet the Sportsbook markets (0.5pts) here