England v South Africa First T20 Tips: Buttler and Brevis catch the eye

• England are better at T20 than ODI

• But hosts can be pricey with the ball

• South Africa form is poor

• Duckett out, Rabada could play

• Buttler top-rated batter

England v South Africa
Wednesday 10 September, 18.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v South Africa First T20 team news

England are presumably buoyant following a record-breaking win over South Africa in the final ODI to paper over significant cracks. They struggled badly in the series with lack of bowling depth so have they learnt a lesson?

The inclusion of Sam Curran would suggest so. If Curran is paired with Rehan Ahmed then the hosts have five bowling options with Jacob Bethell and Will Jacks fallback options. That would be the smart move but one cannot rely on that with this lot.

Ben Duckett has been released from the squad for a rest. Tom Banton should open with Jos Buttler but England could use Jamie Smith instead of the former finding room for another all-rounder. Jofra Archer may be rested.

Possible England XI: Banton, Buttler, Smith, Brook, Bethell, Jacks, S Curran, Rehan, Rashid, L Wood, Saqib

South Africa are waiting on Kagiso Rabada's return from an ankle injury. The pacer missed all three of the ODI matches. If fit, the visitors could unleash a new-look pace attack. Marco Jansen is in the squad and Kwena Maphaka, also unused in the ODI, is available. Lungi Ngidi may be rested.

Donovan Ferreira, the big hitter with Oval Invincibles, and George Linde, who played for Trent Rockets, should be well tuned-up to conditions. Ferreira needs to be given the finisher role now ahead of David Miller.

Possible South Africa XI: Pretorius, Rickleton, Markram, Stubbs, Brevis, Ferreira, Linde, Jansen, Maharaj, Rabada, Maphaka

England v South Africa First T20 pitch report

The Sophia Gardens pitch looked tricky at times for batting in The Hundred. But in the last ten T20 the first-innings average is pretty healthy at 165. There is a 60% win frate for the team batting first. 

However, there is an chance of rain fwhich could cause a delayed start and loss of overs. Betting overs on runs on the Exchange should only be done on the 20-over line as it will be voided if overs are lost. Unders plays should use the first-innings runs line with five overs required for settlement.

England, just like in ODI, are profligate in the field. They are second-bottom for economy in the last two years of the ten established nations. South Africa aren't much better at fourth bottom. It is not surprising that England favour strike rate with the bat and sit third. In terms of runs for and against in the last ten, England's numbers are 176 and 171 with South Africa returning 168 and 166.

England v South Africa First T20 match prediction

England and South Africa are low down the food chain in terms of win-loss ratios in the last two years in this format. England's is 1.33 and South Africa's 0.94. The pair have identical 6-5 records batting first but England have the edge defending, winning ten of their last 17.

This probably does little to justify England short favourite status of 1.728/11 but the more recent formguide makes it harder to disagree. South Africa are in negative equity with five wins in 12 in the last 12 months.

Indeed, one may worry about their balance were they to go with the balance we suggest. It would leave Aiden Markram as a sixth bowler. It means that although the Saffers were considered rare value in the 50-over format, they are harder to justify here. 

They may move into the value zone on conditions. If the rain stays away and they do manage to bat first, then they should be capable of at least trading as favourites. 

England v South Africa First T20 player bets

Buttler is the England batter to follow with a 40% win rate in England's last 20 matches. Sportsbook offer 5/23.50. From a much shorter study sample (eight games), Dewald Brevis has a 37.% win rate. Conditions are key here, too. Buttler might be less of a fancy with the ball new and skies grey. Brevis is protected in the middle-order for South Africa. He is 11/26.50.

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