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Wednesday 9 September, 11.00
TV: Sky Sports
Back Joe Root top England first-innings bat @ 10/34.33
Could all the planets be coming into line at Edgbaston for a Joe Root special? The England run machine has been kept quiet by Pakistan so far, in probably the only formbook shredding trend in the series.
But in Birmingham there is good reason to expect Root to return with a decent haul. In fact, there are four good reasons.
The most obvious is Root's class. The old adage that form is temporary, class is permanent has never been more true when it comes to England's record rungetter and best technician.
There have been ridiculous murmurings that Root's eye is on the wane just because he hasn't truly put Pakistan to the sword across three innings. But he has hardly been a disaster. Scores of 4, 24 and 66 do not suggest a significant issue.
The more likely reason for Root's runs returns this series is the pitches. The wicket at Leeds wasn't too shabby, when he hit that 66, but at Lord's the strip was far from easy. He was not the only batter to struggle.
In Birmingham we should get a decent batting track. As stated in the match preview, there is some concern that it might not be the road that we saw last summer when India won a runfest.
Scores in the Championship have been low. Further digging throws up a reason for that. Warwickshire have specifically tried to produce pitches which offer more to bowlers because of stalemates. It may well be that this work is entirely separate to the international pitch preparation.
Root has a tremendous record at the ground. He averages 64 and has three centuries and five fifties in his 10 Tests there. On a flatter deck, Root can be lethal.
A reduction in lateral movement would be useful for Root. One of the more interesting storylines of the series has been Root falling leg before consistently. In each of his dismissals he has been trapped in front. If there is less movement through the air and off the pitch, Root is less likely to get in trouble.
The absence of Pakistan wicketkeeper Mohammad Rizwan is also a help. Ghazan Ghouri will take over behind the stumps in what will be a severe test of his technique. Pakistan, in the one thing they have got right, have had the keeper standing up for Root, trapping him in the crease. If they are less confident in Ghouri, that wicket could be closed off. Don't doubt, either, that Root has been working all hours to find a solution himself.
The most important reason we want to be with Root is price. The 10/34.33 that Betfair Sportsbook offer is simply wrong on how often he wins. On two-year form Root is copping at 27%. The offer from Sportsbook suggests he wins at 23%.
It could also be argued that it is Root's turn. His rivals for honours (those who win the market) have already done so. Jamie Smith has boosted his rate to 22% and Harry Brook to 35%.
If Root hasn't won the first dig, don't be afraid to go in for the second. His win rate in that innings over the same study period is marginally better at 28%, although we recognise the probability that Pakistan might not make it last that long.
Back Joe Root top England 1st inns bat
Back Mohammad Abbas top Pakistan first-innings bowler @ 23/103.30
Pakistan do a good line in chaos and consternation. It is their comfort zone. Sackings, selection rows, political interference are de rigeur and one gets the feeling that, without the constant threat of crisis, players, fans and administrators would get the feeling that something isn't quite right.
This series has been no different. Seven players have been sent home and the head coach and bowling coach have been sacked. Mike Hesson, the white ball coach, is now in charge and he has approached his duties with the sort of wry smile, as if it to say 'seen it all before'.
Hesson also probably knows that there is no team in the world which could axe seven players, replace them with new ones and improve.
Among the chaos, however, is one constant, consistent artistic performer. Mohammad Abbas has had a terrific series. At times it looks as if he has had the ball in a string, darting the ball this way and that. Backing him to win the Pakistan top bowler market in first-innings makes sense.
He may well have new team-mates to bowl alongside but it is unlikely they will match his rhythm and a guarantee that they won't trump his skill. He is their best bowler.
Abbas took four wickets in the first-innings at Lord's and five in the second. He won honours in both. The only danger to Abbas is Pakistan's penchant for self-destruction. It shouldn't warrant mentioning but Abbas is not immune. He was dropped for Pakistan following the first Test against West Indies. His crime? Eight wickets in the match. They couldn't, could they?
Back Mohammad Abbas top Pakistan 1st inns bowler