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Wednesday 19 August, 11.00
TV: Sky Sports
England v Pakistan first Test team news
All change for England, then. But what have they actually learned from the Brendon McCullum failure? They've re-appointed the previous captain, who was also failing. And gone for another Kiwi coach who has no experience of leading a Test team.
Joe Root and Stephen Fleming could be the dream team. But at the moment the only evidence to hand suggests it's an odd combination to choose.
With no Ben Stokes England have resisted the temptation to try to find a like-for-like replacement. Instead they have three picked quicks who can bat a bit in Ollie Robinson, Gus Atkinson and Brydon Crase (not all will play) plus Dan Lawrence, whose stock as a spin bowler appears to have been overestimated. Shoaib Bashir probably misses out.
Emilio Gay had an injury scare with a shoulder problem but should be ready to resume a promising start to his Test career. Jordan Cox is expected to bat at No 3.
Probable XI: Duckett, Gay, Cox, Root, Brook, Lawrence, Smith, Atkinson, Carse/Robinson, Archer, Tongue
Trying to guess Pakistan's selection is a fool's errand. There are two standout examples as to why, both related to the 1-1 draw in West Indies in July and August.
Pop quiz. Mohammad Abbas takes eight wickets in defeat in the first Test. Do you pick him for game two or drop him? Pakistan chose the latter.
Abdullah Shafique won man of the match to ensure Pakistan levelled the series. Do you pick him in the squad to play England or leave him out? Pakistan chose the latter.
Abbas is included the squad. Shafique has, finally, been added as a replacement for the injured opener Abudullah Fazal. It is almost like they forgot to include him. They may forget to play him.
The key men are likely to be (obviously) Babar Azam and two all-rounders who balance the XI; Aamer Jamal and spin ace Sajid Khan.
Possible XI: Imam, Azan, Shafique, Babar, Masood, Salman, Rizwan, Jamal, Sajid, Abbas, Ali
England v Pakistan first Test pitch report
Test matches in Leeds are more often than not decided by the overheads. If a team has the fortune to bat for the majority of the time under blue skies, they should win. But if not, wickets fall in groups. Sun's out, gun's out. Cloud cover, all over. It's a natty little summation.
There have only been two Tests in the last four years. England won them both, beating Australia (the Stokes one) and India. The latter may be more instructive as it was last summer. Cracking batting conditions allowed England to come from behind after conceding 471. The sun stayed out for another epic as they chased 373 with ease.
In the past this has been a wicket which has held together well if conditions allow. So what will conditions be like? The forecast is poor. Day one is likely to be gloomy with patches of rain. Ideal bowling conditions. Day two could be a washout while day three is persistent cloud. That all suggests batters are in for a tough time.
Extreme unders in first- and second-innings is the way to play on the Exchange. It would not be in the least surprising to see the ball seaming and swinging all over the shop.
England v Pakistan Test match predictions
Who is the better prepared team? England, whose players have been frolicking in The Hundred and white-ball indiscipline? Or Pakistan, who fought hard for a 1-1 draw in a Test series in the Caribbean and have benefited from a warm-up match in Beckenham?
It's hard to reckon that it is the visitors. England really couldn't have picked a worst venue and condition to have the rusty red-ball techniques exposed. In Abbas, Pakistan have a magic man. They do have to pick him, though.
And there's the rub. Pakistan are maddeningly irrational. They could get everything in their favour here and yet still manage to muck it up.
The best advice is to bet with caveats. They must bowl first and do so under leaden skies. A simple, relatively stress-free trade is then on cards. Backing Pakistan at 4.1031/10 and laying off for double the stake gives all green.
If there is bottom line, though, at this stage, it is this: expect carnage. No fifty in the match at 100/1101.00 anyone?
Back-to-lay Pakistan bowling 1st from 4.20 to
England v Pakistan first Test man of match tips
If we're right about bowlers dominating then it is hard not to be enticed by picking one or two to follow on the man of the match market. Abbas is an obvious first port of call at 11/112.00. He has a strong record in England on two tours back in 2018 and 2020. He has scalped 15 times over five Tests and although older, he is wiser. Abbas is a master of the art and he won't be required to be hitting much more than late 70s in mph to do damage on a conducive pitch. For England, we're not sure if Ollie Robinson plays. But he would be perfection for this track. Sportsbook are not of a dissimilar view but the 10/111.00 still has appeal.
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(1pts) back-to-lay Pakistan bowl 1st from 4.2016/5 to 2.206/5