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Harare surface does look slow
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Zimbabwe will do well to make 140
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Raza Mr Reliable for hosts
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Sixes and fours shorts
Zimbabwe v New Zealand
Friday 18 July, 12:00
TV: Live on TNT
Zimbabwe v New Zealand T20 team news
Zimbabwe were beaten by South Africa in the tournament opener. They put up a decent show, squeezing out 141 runs batting first and making it last until the 19th over of the chase.
Predictably Sikandar Raza came to their rescue. His top-bat win (again) came in the form of 54 from 38. But there are others who can step up; opener Brian Bennet and middle-order man Ryan Burl.
With the ball they have been boosted by Richard Ngavara's return. There is new-ball menace there alongside Blessing Muzarabani while Trevor Gwandu also has decent numbers.
Possible Zimbabwe XI: Madhevere, Bennett, Madande, Raza, Burl, Raza, Masakadze, Munyonga, Ngavara, Muzarabani, Gwandu
New Zealand are up and running after beating South Africa in their first match. It looked like a classic Kiwi performance. Bat first, read the pitch expertly and then get just enough to stifle the opposition in the chase.
But they can do better. Rachin Ravindra, Mark Chapman, Glenn Phillips and Michael Bracewell were all rested post Major League exertions and will be in contention. In their absence Tim Robinson and Bevon Jacobs performed a rescue act with the bat so not all come straight back in. Daryl Mitchell should miss out as this is not his format.
Probable NZ XI: Seifert, Conway, Robinson, Chapman, Phillips, Jacobs, Bracewell, Santner, Henry, Sodhi, Duffy
Zimbabwe v New Zealand T20 pitch report
The average run rate in the last 14 T20 internationals (two-year study) played at Harare is just 7.6. It did not look a road in either of the two games so far and New Zealand's 173 proved too good for South Africa. It was only the third time that more than 170 was busted. The sixes tally in that contest was 12 and despite a short boundary, it was a real struggle. Sportsbook's line at 10.5 looks about right because a Zimbabwe collapse is always on the mind. The fours line at overs 24.5 has been busted just six times.
In-play on the Exchange we may look to go unders Zimbabwe runs. Their 141 against South Africa has been bettered only four times in their last 14 against the non-associate teams.
Zimbabwe v New Zealand T20 match prediction
Given that Zimbabwe are going to have to get up to that 150 mark to put the Kiwis under pressure and their record of doing so is not good, it is hard to justify a gamble on them to produce an upset here at 6.205/1. New Zealand should be too efficient. Sportsbook's offer of even money for both teams to reach 140 could be the limit of the home team's ambition.
The best match odds option could come in the form of Zimbabwe's new-ball attack. It has the potential to do damage and the Kiwi strength is in the middle rather than the top so a couple of points could be pinched.
Zimbabwe v New Zealand T20 player bets
Raza has a 37.5% win rate for Zimbabwe on two-year form so there is nothing wrong with taking Sportsbook's 3/14.00 that he delivers again. He should be favourite. Ordinarily we shy away from going back-to-back on a player but Raza consistently puts together consecutive wins. There is a threat from Burl at 6/17.00. With the ball Ngavara is 7/24.50 and with the outstanding rate of just under 27% he deserves more respect.
Tim Seifert is winning at 33% in the last two years and as he has retained the opening berth where he got the bulk of those successes Sportsbook's 7/24.50 is fair. It keeps on side a low total if New Zealand have to chase which would obviously favour an opener.
Back Tim Seifert top NZ bat
Back Sikandar Raza top Zimbabwe bat