West Indies v New Zealand First ODI Tips: Rutherford and Seales to stand up for WI

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Saturday 11 July, 19:30
TV: Sky Sports

West Indies v New Zealand first ODI team news

West Indies will be led by skip Shai Hope but he may not keep wicket. They are likely to want to find room for Amir Jangoo, who comes in off the back of a strong Test series against Sri Lanka.

John Campbell may be considered vulnerable in the opening slot alongside Justin Greaves. There are a number of fixtures in the line-up in terms of the batters such as Hope, Keacy Carty, Sherfane Rutherford and Roston Chase.

With the ball Alzarri Joseph, Shamar Joseph and Jayden Seales are a pace trio set in stone. Gudakesh Motie will most likely be the main spinner with Chase supporting.

Possible XI: Campbell/Jangoo, Greaves, Carty, Hope, Rutherford, Chase, Motie, Forde, Alzarri, Shamar, Seales

New Zealand have not picked a full-strength ODI bowling unit. Matt Henry and Will O'Rourke have not been included in the squad. Jacob Duffy is set to be attack leader, supported by Nathan Smith.

Smith is one of a clutch of gritty all-rounders who could make the difference. Mitch Santner is captain and he will be supported in the all-rounder role by Michael Bracewell. Mark Chapman and Daryl Mitchell could also be utilised with the ball if need be. Altogether they have six all-rounders in the squad.

Possible XI: Young, Kelly, Nicholls, Mitchell, Chapman, Hay, Bracewell, Santner, Smith, Duffy, Sears

West Indies v New Zealand first ODI pitch report

There have been only three ODI played in the last five years at Providence. They were all in 2022 against Bangladesh. One could be forgiven for thinking it's T20 with first-innings scores of 149, 108 and 178. Spin played an important role. Motie took six wickets in the series and Taijul Islam five in one game.

It is interesting, however, that the Windies have picked only one specialist spinner. They have not called on Akeal Hosein for example. Maybe the pitch is fresh and true but the first three games of this series are all at the same venue. It would be a surprise if it didn't slow up.

Historically, Providence has been turgid and we have seen attritional battles in the CPL down the years. There is however, a couple of track on the square which are reserved for the batters. Maybe they use one of these here.

Have a good look at the pitch pre-toss and if there is any suggestion from the report that it is classic providence, the smart angle in-play is to be against Windies' runs on the Exchange lines. Extreme udners is the play with unders 170-190 starting points.

West Indies v New Zealand first ODI match prediction

ODI is a format where, by and large, the favourites win. It's not like the helter-skelter of T20 when one player can have a good (or bad) six deliveries and alter the course of a contest. Over a potential 100 overs class can out. Or should we say organisation. the top teams wear the others down.

There is no side more organised than New Zealand. They are often perfectly prepared and have all their plans in place. Each player knows his role.

West Indies are getting there in that regard under the astute coaching of Daren Sammy. They are not the worst gamble in the world but the odds have to be right. At 11/82.38 on both the Exchange and Sportsbook it is hard to argue that is a little mean. We were expecting much bigger and New Zealand, as is so often the case, are underrated.

West Indies v New Zealand first ODI player bets

There are some excellent win-rate options for this opener. Indeed, one of the most reliable top-bat bets is available. Step forward Mitchell who has a two-year hit rate of 40% from a more than healthy study sample of 20 matches. Mitchell is ideal as well if the pitch is a little slow. He is a master at finding the gaps. Sportsbook offer 7/24.50. There's nothing doing on top Kiwi bowler because the data is skewed by the absence of Henry and O'Rourke.

For the hosts, Sherfane Rutherford is underrated under the same filter. He is winning at 25% for top bat. There's a bowler to follow, too, with Seales far and away the most reliable, copping at 36% (even accounting for no dead heat rules). Sportsbook go 9/25.50 and 10/34.33 the pair.

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