Sydney Thunder v Melbourne Renegades Big Bash Tips: Warner could Kane it

• Warner 16/5 for top Thunder bat

• Renegades fighting hard

• Manuka pitch can be flat

Syndey Thunder v Melbourne Reneagdes
Thursday 19 January, 08:15
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

Thunder have collapsed after losing Alex Hales and Rilee Rossouw. It's three defeats on the spin now for a team which has also suffered bad luck with injuries. They desperately need David Warner to produce something big with the bat.

Last time out their batting flopped horribly against a weak Hobart bowling line-up. They've batted first in their last three games and not made more than 135 on each ocassion.

Probable XI: Gilkes, Warner, Whiteman Davies, Ross, Sams, Cutting, McAndrew, Green, Qadir, Doggett

Renegades are hanging on in there and should make the play-offs. The loss of Akeal Hosein and Mujeeb Rahman has hurt but Fawad Ahmed and Sri Lankan leggie Kellepotha are decent pick-ups.

At least Renegades have tried to stay in the hunt. Some franchises rather gave up after lsoing key players to the rival leagues. They have also had to content with the absence of Shaun Marsh to injury.

Possible XI: Guptill, Fraser-McGurk, Harper, Finch, Critchley, Wells, Rogers, Sutherland, Kellepotha, Richardson, Fawad

Pitch report

The Manuka Oval has been decent for batting. Previously to this term, seven from 17 first digs saw scores of 170 or more. But beware, only six of those saw both teams notching 160. This season there has been one game. Stars managed 122 versus Thunder earlier in season. Given that both teams struggle for runs, going overs on the par line is risky.

How to play

Thunder are 1.855/6 with Renegades 2.166/5. It is hard to justify a wager on Thunder on such a skinny price.

Renegades rate value, then, although a bet on them is likely to be fraught. They rarely make things look simple. WItness their success over Stars.

Tops value

David Warner has been boosted to 16/5 for top Thunder bat. We'll take a risk that he finds form. The chief reason is that Warner ha a sensational record against Renegades' main strike bolwer Kane Richardson. He's taken 56 runs off 21 balls in his T20 career and not been out.

For Renegades, Mackenzie Harvey may be promoted to open - if he even makes the squad. he's 9/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook.