Sri Lanka v West Indies Second ODI Tips: Windies a bet in splash and bash

Sri Lanka v West Indies
Wednesday 23th October 10:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

Sri Lanka v West Indies Second ODI team news

Sri Lanka have a 1-0 lead and the team that did the business in game one very much points to what they expect from the surface at Pallekele. They had the opportunity to bowl a full 50 overs of spin if they wished.

They picked two pacers only, though, in Asitha Fernando and Janith Liyanage with four tweakers used. Kamindu Mendis, another spinner, wasn't required.

One would expect that they pick the same team again. That means no room for all-rounder Chamindu Wickramsinghe, who would have added another pace option, or the excellent Dilshan Madushanka. Nishan Madushka was a surprise pick in the opening slot instead of Pathum Nissanka. Maheesh Theekshana was rested.

Probable Sri Lanka XI: Madushka, Avishka, Kusal Mendis, Samarawickrama, Asalanka, Liyanage, Kamindu, Wellalage, Hasaranga, Vandersay/Theekshana, Asitha

West Indies went with three spinners in Gudakesh Motie, Roston Chase and Hayden Walsh. But a wet ball after rain prevented them from getting the required grip. After West Indies' innings was cut short at 185 for four off 38, Sri Lanka were given the task of 232 in 37 overs.

Windies, given that Sherfane Rutherford and Chase had performed a rescue act, should have felt happy with that given there was little to come. A strong start with the ball (Sri Lanka were 45 for three) fell away and the hosts won with more than six overs left.

Probable West indies XI: Athanaze, King, Carty, Hope, Rutherford, Chase, Shepherd, Motie, Alzarri, Walsh, Seales

Sri Lanka v West Indies Second ODI pitch report

More rain is forecast for game two so it could be another truncated affair. The innings runs line market requires 20 overs for bets to stand remember. The 50-overs line, naturally, requires no reductions.

We're not mad keen on runs here given the dominance of spin in the line-ups but do recognise that a wet ball does help the batters more. A runs bet may be one to swerve.

What we do think, however, is that the toss remains crucial. Before game one there was a 59% bias for the chaser under lights. With that ticking up and the probability of a wet ball again (through either rain or dew), the toss is crucial.

Sri Lanka v West Indies Second ODI match prediction

Given the conditions, this might be a tighter contest than the match odds suggest. Sri Lanka are skeletal at 1.454/9 and, although we rate them as a more efficient unit than the tourists (particularly at home), the gap may be too big.

With the toss bias in-play, and a wet ball for Sri Lanka defending, West Indies can give a decent account of themselves at 3.1511/5. At the very least we would be surprised if Windies didn't trade as favourites batting second, opening up a straightforward trade.

Sri Lanka v West Indies Second ODI player bets

Both Shai Hope and Keacy Carty were winning at 30% ion top bat for WI before game one. As was the case for that match, again only Carty is a value play at a decent 5/16.00.

We also keep faith with Janith Liyanage at 12/113.00. He's been pushed out from 9/110.00 despite batting at No 6.

Madushanka was a surprise omission for Sri Lanka and, although he might not play (money back if he doesn't), we have to be alert to the value on him for bowler. He has a 38% win rate and the 7/24.50 is too big. All three are win-rate value.

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