Pakistan v South Africa First ODI Tips: Back Afridi to lead by example

• Afridi is latest Pakistan skipper

• Solid win rate for the pacer

• Faisalabad pitch is likely to be flat

• Ayub may continue good form

• Read Ed's Ultimate Guide to the Ashes

Pakistan v South Africa
Tuesday 4 November, 10:00
TV: Live on PCB Live

Pakistan v South Africa First ODI team news

Pakistan have a new ODI captain, a role you can earn if you can collect enough tokens from cereal boxes. This time it's Shaheen Shah Afridi, who replaces Mohammad Rizwan. Rizwan led Pakistan to series wins in Australia and South Africa in 2024 but they had a shocker in their home Champions Trophy, going out in the first round.

Rizwan remains in a squad which comprises few surprises. Abdullah Shafique has been omitted for Fakhar Zaman. Haris Rauf returns after not being involved in the T20 series, which Pakistan won 3-0. The main selection dilemma may be over the use of a second all-rounder; Hussain Talat or Faheem Ashraf.

Possible Pakistan XI: Ayub, Fakhar, Babar, Rizwan, Salman, Hasan, Talat, Nawaz, Afridi, Rauf, Naseem

South Africa are very much second string. It is all about who isn't there rather than who is in terms of gamechangers. Aiden Markram, Temba Bavuma, David Miller, Marco Jansen, Kagiso Rabada and Keshav Maharaj are among the missing.

Matt Breetzke will lead the side and he is likely to lean heavily on the experience of Quinton de Kock. Lhuan-dre Pretorius may have to come in. George Linde and Corbin Bosch balance the team. Bosch picked up seven wickets in the T20s so is key.

Bosch allows South Africa to pick a specialist spinner alongside Linde. Bjorn Fortuin is likely to be ahead of Nqab Peter, the leggie. They have good pace options with two or three from Lungi Ngidi, Nandre Burger, Lizaad WIlliams and Ottniel Baartman likely to be selected. 

Probable SA XI: De Zorzi, De Kock, Pretorius, Breetzke, Brevis, Ferreira, Linde, Bosch, Fortuin, Williams, Ngidi

Pakistan v South Africa First ODI pitch report

All three games in the series will be played at Iqbal Stadium, Faisalabad. Unfortunately there hasn't been an ODI there since 2008 so it's guesswork when it comes to conditions. This is far from ideal. Betting, then, is a bit like going out for a swanky do and forgetting your underwear. It doesn't feel right.

The most recent form guide to find is the 2018 Pakistan Cup, the domestic List A competition, which was played in its entirety in Faisalabad. Four of the first six matches saw scores of more than 350 in the first dig and both teams to score 350 came in three times. This suggests a flat wicket should not be a surprise.

The last 10 averages scores for and against for Pakistan and South Africa are 221/274 and 230/270 respectively. Both teams to score 275 might be a stretch at 13/102.30 given those numbers.

Pakistan v South Africa First ODI match prediction

South Africa's 3-0 reverse in the T20 series is not a great portent for the more complex, rigorous format so it is not surprising to see the hosts as short as 1.695/7. Still, one of the golden rules of cricket betting is to swerve Pakistan at odds-on.

And when they are as prohibitively short this it is a big no-no. The big gap between runs for and against, as discussed, makes them dangerous to place faith in. They are still only eight from their last 14 at home.

Maybe Breetzke will prove an inspirational leader for an inexperienced South African group. It is difficult to judge how they go off and recent form against England, for example, is in the bin because of the player churn.

Pakistan v South Africa third T20 player bets

Saim Ayub has four wins from his last 12 on the top bat market for Pakistan in this format. He showed excellent form in the T20s. With the possibility that this could be a road, and therefore the market extremely competitive, the 15/82.88 that he notches a 50 might not be the worst option. 

With the ball, new skip Afridi has been dominant. He is winning at 46% of the time in all matches since the end of the last World Cup. The 12/53.40 that he gets a win and sets the tone is probably the wisest wager. 

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