Pakistan v England First Test Player Tips: Root has little to beat

• Joe Root 2/1 for top England bat

• Azhar Ali stands out for Pakistan

• Rawalpindi surface likely to be flat

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Pakistan v England
Thursday 1 December, 05:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Pope spin fear

The first Test of this series could be delayed by a day because of illness sweeping through the England team. And if they do get on the park on Thursday it causes problems for punters looking to bet the player markets because it will be unclear who is truly 100% fit.

If all was fair in love and war then Joe Root would be a go-to wager. We suspect Root is currently unaffected because he was well enough to take over press conference duties from Ben Stokes, who is struggling.

Root, as we all know, is by far England's best batsman and he has little to beat. In Asia, he has been dominant averaging 81 runs per innings in his last nine first innings on the continent. He has three tons in that selection, too.

On win rate, Root is bang on a 2/1 shot which is the price Sportsbook offer. It would be perfectly acceptable to reckon that his record in such conditions warrant a shorter price. Sportsbook also go 6/5 and 9/2 that he scores a first-innings century.

As you can see from the win rates below, Ollie Pope provides a 3% edge on win rate versus Sportsbook's price of 6/1. But we do worry about his record against spin. Ben Foakes would also rate as value at 16s although the predicted road in Rawalpindi doesn't help.

Top England runscorer wins/matches last two years

Root 9/27
Pope 3/17
Foakes 2/12
Crawley 2/20
Stokes 1/19

Top England wicket-taker wins/matches last two years

Anderson 5 3t/19
Robinson 2 3t/11
Stokes 2 2t/19
Leach 2 1t/19

AA the road to profit

Pakistan's risky selection strategy with their bowling group is highlighted by our win rate chart below. It has only two current players listed. Shaheen Shah Afridi is of course missing through injury.

The batting market does have appeal, though. And Azhar Ali has potential to reward backers of Sportsbook's 9/2 that he tops Pakistan's run list.

The 37-year-old deserves more respect in reality. With 19 test tons and an average of 42 he has seen it all. And he stacks up better than Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan on win rate.

We will keep our powder dry on the excellent Faheem Ashraf at a whopping 33s for the same reason we're swerving Foakes. We need a surface which gives something to the bowlers to be betting lower-order batters.

Top Pakistan runscorer wins/matches last two years

Azhar 3/11
Babar 2/12
Faheem 2/5
Rizwan 2/12

Top Pakistan wicket-taker wins/matches last two years

Naseem 2t/7
Faheem t/5
t=ties