-
New Zealand strong at home
-
Windies squad underwhelming
-
Hagley Oval might be tricky for batters
-
Young and Hope eyecatching
-
Henry should be skinnier than 3s
New Zealand v West Indies
Sunday 16 November, 01:00
TV: Live on TNT
New Zealand v West Indies first ODI team news
New Zealand welcome back Matt Henry into the squad after recovering from injury. One of the best white-ball bowlers in the world boosts a unit which is more comfortable in the 50-over format than T20.
Tom Latham, Will Young, Nathan Smith and Blair Tickner are added to otherwise familiar names. Mitch Santner leads as skip. Mark Chapman and Daryl Mitchell, just as in the T20, are charged with middle-order ballast and the pair may be more suited to 50-over too.
Probable New Zealand XI: Conway, Young, Ravindra, Mitchell, Latham, Chapman, Santner, Bracewell, Jamieson, Henry, Duffy
West Indies have opted to recall opener John Campbell after a six-year gap. It is not the sort of selection that makes punters think anything but negatively about the visiting set up.
They are looking for players who stick their hand up regularly and they are in short supply in this squad. Shai Hope, Romario Shepherd, Keacy Carty and Matthew Forde are players who could make a difference but otherwise there is a lot of churn. Gudakesh Motie and Akeal Hosein have been dispensed with. Alzarri Joseph and Shamar Joseph are injured.
Probable WI XI: Athanaze, Campbell, Auguste, Carty, Hope, Chase, Greaves, Shepherd, Pierre, Forde, Seales
New Zealand v West Indies first ODI pitch report
There have been 16 ODI played at Hagley Oval since 2014. The average run rate is 5.5. The difference between run rates for first and second innings is almost non-existent. However, this is a day-night contest and our study sample is non-existent with only two matches played.
We might be able to gauge first-innings runs from the last four. The first-innings scores were (most recent first): 219-271-226-223. New Zealand have an average total score of 258 in their last ten ODI. West Indies' mark is 232. For both teams the par line may be set 20 or so higher on the Exchange.
At the moment the weather forecast is clear but there has been around in the days before the contest so there could be some juice in the surface.
New Zealand v West Indies first ODI match prediction
New Zealand are 1.3130/100 with West Indies 4.1031/10. We were very happy to take on the Kiwis with the toss bias against them in some of the T20, not least because it was considered to be their weakest format.
But they are red-hot at home having won 16 of the last 18, including consecutive 3-0 whitewashes against England and Pakistan this year.
West Indies come into the series off a 2-0 reverse in Bangladesh but it is fair top say that conditions will be more seam-friendly in this contest. Still, their record away from home is dreadful having won just two of their last 14 and one of those was against Ireland.
It means it is very hard to even make a case for a trade on West Indies and we are looking for specials on Sportsbook when they become available. The combination of sixes, highest opening partnership and the win may be an option.
New Zealand v West Indies first ODI player bets
Will Young is a player who goes under the radar for New Zealand. He has been something of a Mr Reliable on top bat over the last two years and although he drew blanks against England, a less threatening West Indies attack brings him to our attention again. The 9/25.50 about the opener delivering is not the worst option.
Hope is the West Indies' best option for reliability. The overs 26.5 runs line is a fair bet at the 5/61.84 mark. We also note the 100/1101.00 about Kharry Pierre top scoring. Bat order is an issue but no-one would be surprised if a thrashed 30 or 40 won this market in the lower order for Windies at some stage in the series. Pierre is an all-rounder and has a first-class century.
Our top-rated bet is Matt Henry top New Zealand bowler at 3/14.00. He should be a clear favourite at around the 11/43.75 mark. As stated up top he is absolutely brilliant in white ball.
Back Matt Henry top NZ bowler