New Zealand v England First T20 Tips: Hoover up the value with Henry

• Kiwis could lack batting power

• England selection has one eye on Ashes
• Hagley Oval has been one for bowlers

• Seifert and Buttler win-rate bets

• Henry outstanding for performance win

New Zealand v England
Saturday 18 October, 07:15
TV: Live on TNT

New Zealand v England First T20 team news

New Zealand welcome back Rachin Ravindra after he missed the Australia series due to a cut on the face. But there remains concern about their batting power in this format.

Although Ravindra is classy, the likes of Devon Conway and Daryl Mitchell are hardly master blasters and they seem desperately short of a Finn Allen or Glenn Phillips to hit the big shots. 

Their strength is brain rather than brawn. Mitch Santner returns as skip and is canny. And he leads a bowling attack with the excellence of Matt Henry and Jacob Duffy. One gets the feeling they need bowler-friendly surfaces otherwise they could be outmuscled.

Possible New Zealand XI: Seifert, Conway, Robinson, Chapman, Mitchell,  Jacobs, Bracewell, Santner, Jamieson, Henry, Duffy

England will have one eye on the Ashes during this series and at some stage could select accordingly. They will be keen for Jacob Bethell to build confidence while Zak Crawley's inclusion in the squad is a big pointer as to how they see this as preparation for Australia.

To that end, there is a slot in the batting order potentially available. Jordan Cox is (sort of) in posession after the bash against Ireland but we don't rule out a Crawley-Bethell axis at four and five in the batting order.

Brydon Carse's workload may be managed with the ball and it would be a surprise if he played all three. There is no Ben Duckett, Jofra Archer or Jamie Smith. England are a little light on pace.

Possible England XI: Buttler, Salt, Brook, Crawley/Cox, Bethell, S Curran, Rehan, J Overton, Rashid, L Wood, Baker

New Zealand v England first T20 pitch report

At the Hagley Oval in the 12 T20i there is a run rate of just 7.8 with seven first-innings scores coming under the 160 mark. By filtering the last 10 games we get a first-innings average of 151, an average second-innings score of 142. Only three of those 10 were won by the side batting first.

There is, however, a contradictory trend in day-night games domestically when seven from the last 10 have been won defending. It may be best to accept that there is just no clarity in terms of a toss trend.

Betfair Sportsbook go under 14.5 sixes at 8/111.73. The average in the last 10 is nine per game. New Zealand average 6.2 and England 9.2. In terms of team runs, New Zealand could be an unders play given an average of 165 per match in the last 10 but we await Sportsbook total runs quotes. 

New Zealand v England first T20 match prediction

New Zealand are 2.407/5 with England 1.705/7. One suspects the hosts are in dire need of a leveller in conditions to make us consider them value at the prices.

The good news is that in terms of match odds we can afford a wait-and-see approach. Game two is also at Hagley Oval. If we have the ball zipping about in the first match we can be hopeful there is a repeat.

It does seem, though, that England could overpower the hosts with the bat. On runs scored in the last 10 there is almost a 20-run swing in favour of England. And we have already mentioned the sixes gap.

At this stage we are considering a trade on the Kiwis if we see evidence of swing and seam in-play because the likes of Duffy and Henry are expert. From the high of 2.407/5 New Zealand, allied with English rustiness, might make this a choice affair. 

New Zealand v England first T20 player bets

There are some solid win rates to take advantage of for this one. Tim Seifert is still returning the money at a 50% rate on top bat after he finished the Aussies series with another success. Sportsbook make him a 16/54.20 chance and he really should be favourite.

For England Jos Buttler is 13/53.60 with a 33% rate since the end of the last World Cup. That's three clicks fewer than Salt but the Welshman may find this a harder task against crack new-ball bowlers.

Speaking of which, Henry does appear to be the standpout pick to bust Sportsbook's 21.5 player performance quote at 10/111.91. In the last 10 he has won at the quote seven times and has an average make-up of 38. It's one point per run, 10 per catch and 20 per wicket. 

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