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Top bat honours usually go to an opener
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Rahul over Buttler looks a bet at 12.523/2
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Harshal Patel could regain top bowler crown
Stick with openers
We say this every year. If you want to find a winner for top runscorer in the entire tournament, all you need to do is work out which of the 20 probable openers is the best value. Easy.
Only twice in IPL history has a batter topped the charts batting outside of the top two. Jos Buttler, the Rajasthan Royals No 1, is the current holder.
There are other useful criteria for a selection. This is market which rewards quality. A batter has to be world-class to win this over a marathon season. There are no flukes here.
As you will see from the data on past winners, they are - by and large - the cream of the crop. Ruturaj Gaikwad, at this stage of his youthful career, could prove to be an outlier or a winner entirely in keeping with tradition.
Top IPL runscorers by year (RPI):
2021 Buttler 50.7; 2020 Gaikwad 39.6; 2019 Rahul 47.8; 2018: Warner 57.6; 2017: Williamson 43.2; 2016: Warner 45.7; 2015 Kohli 60.8; 2014: Warner 40.1; 2013: Uthappa 41.2; 2012 M Hussey 43.1; 2011 Gayle 52.3; 2010 Gayle 50.6; 2009 Tendulkar 41.2; 2008 Hayden 48.5; 2007 S Marsh 56.
So who to back? Well, there are few standout candidates considering an average runs per innings mark of 48 is required to win it. It is hard not to reckon that Buttler and KL Rahul are not involved in a match bet for the orange gap as the only two openers who come close to the required number on two-year data.
Buttler is 11/2 favourite with Rahul at 15/2. It is relatively easy to make a case for Rahul (12.523/2 on the Exchange) given the price discrepancy between the two and the fact that the Lucknow man, selfish but consistent, has a only a slightly inferior RPI.
Of players who could bridge the sizeable gap, Chennai's Devon Conway has a shout. His RPI is strong (third behind Buttler and Rahul) and so is his price. He is 25/1.
Mumbai's Ishan Kishan looks like he has the pure ability to make it into the top echelon. It is temperament that lets him down. Is he really striving to be the best? He is 20.019/1 on the exchange and 12s with Sportsbook.
IPL openers last two years runs per innings:
Rahul (LSG) 44.3
Kishan (MI) 34.5
Gaikwad (CSK) 33.4
Agarwal (SRH) 30.1
V Iyer (KKR) 26.4
Dhawan (PK) 34.9
Faf (RCB) 34.4
Rana (KKR) 28.7
Buttler (RR) 47.4
Jaiswal (RR) 25.3
Warner (DC) 31.3
De Kock (LSG) 30.9
Gill (GL) 29.1
Rohit (MI) 24
Shaw (DC) 30.4
Conway 36
Wade (GT)
Kohli (RCB) 27.2
Prabhsimran (PK)
Abhishek (SRH) 29.5
*200-run qualification, last two years in IPL
Suryakumar Yadav is the shortest-priced non-opener at 14/1. His RPI on the same filter as above is 28.1. As good as he and the fact he won't open suggests it's money wasted.
That brings us to top team bats. Staying with Mumbai, we need to point out Cam Green's price of 25/1. There is a chance he could open with Rohit Sharma increasingly ineffective up front.
He could be one of the few slices of value in those markets. One other which stands out is Rinku Singh for Kolkata. With Shreyas Iyer missing for half a season he has little to beat. All of his main rivals, apart from Shubman Gill, have a RPI of 24-odd so the 8/1 appeals.
Could Harshal win it again?
What we also say every season is: finding a top bowler winner is trickier. The one piece of criteria we thought we could rely on was ignoring the spinners. Yuz Chahal and Wanindu Hasaranga proved that wrong last term at Nos 1 and 2.
If we are to stick with death bowlers (cheap wickets as batters take more risks at the end), the 2021 winner Harshal Patel may have legs. Based on strike rate data involving players in the last two years who have 20 wickets or more, he is cream of the crop with a wicket ever 12.9 balls.
He is 11/4 second-favourite for top RCB bowler. We can make a case for that purely on the fact that 5/4 jolly Josh Hazlewood is injured.
Stripping out spinners, pacers with availability issues and players who aren't involved, Sunrisers pair Umran Malik (15.2), T Natarajan (15.3) and Avesh Khan (15.5) of Lucknow are contenders. Umran is 16.5031/2 on the exchange, Natarajan 20/1 with Sportsbook and Avesh 15.5029/2 back on the exchange.